Can Israel withstand without Western support?

Military confrontations between Israel and Iran are undergoing a radical transformation, as covert confrontations and operations that were conducted in the shadows and gray areas shift to direct and classic confrontations, adding a new layer of complexity to regional security in the Middle East.

No more shadow wars

Iran has thrown its strategy of strategic patience out the window, as this strategy made Israelis brazen and delusional. Therefore, its response to targeting the Iranian consulate was decisive, using 360 missiles and drones to directly target the occupied territories. The targets of the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian army missiles were Israeli army bases, most notably the airbase in the Negev in southern occupied territories. The “Nativ HaShayara” airbase is one of Israel’s important bases, used in the aggression on Gaza and the destruction of the sector according to the scorched earth strategy, the same base from which Israeli aircraft took off to strike the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Israeli Channel 12 confirmed that 7 missiles hit this important airbase. The Nativ HaShayara airbase, also known as the 28th Israeli Air Force base, is located in the south of the occupied territories between Beersheba and Arad.

Claiming that the Iranian attack on Israel is a charade prevents us from analyzing this highly important event, which will have significant implications in the Middle East. The Iranian attack not only had a military impact but also revealed the strategic failure Israel is experiencing. This failure, which is repeating for the second time after the victory of the Aqsa Flood.

Israel incapable of protecting itself

In fact, the Iranian attack showed Israel’s inability to protect itself. Since the beginning of the war on Gaza, Western countries and Israel itself realized that without Western support, Israel would not be able to stand against Palestinian resistance in Gaza for a single day. Therefore, we saw how France, Britain, the United States, and some Arab countries participated in neutralizing Iranian weapons and missiles before they reached Israel.

Since the beginning of the genocide war on Gaza, Western countries not only stood by Israel but also provided unconditional support, enabling it to continue military operations in such a brutal and systematic manner. This steadfast alliance highlights a larger geopolitical narrative, where Western interests deeply intertwine with Israel’s security and political decisions. The consistent support from these countries, regardless of the dynamic and fluctuating nature of the situation, underscores the commitment that seems unwavering due to the ebb and flow of regional conflict, emanating from the understanding that Israel is the West’s creation and cannot stand without Western support.

Complicity according to international law

If we want to cite examples of military support for Israel, we can say that Germany, for example, finds itself involved and complicit in the mass killing of the Palestinian people in Gaza. Nicaragua filed a lawsuit in the International Court of Justice against Germany, accusing it of participating and complicity in the genocide against Gaza’s population by continuing to supply Israel with weapons, according to the Genocide Convention and the principles of international responsibility for acts that violate international law. Despite the seriousness of these accusations and the international scrutiny they brought, Germany remained steadfast in its support for Israel and continued to supply it with weapons. This scenario raises not only deep questions about international law and ethical obligations but also about the depth of Germany’s commitment to Israel, indicating a prioritization of supporting Israel in its crimes over defending global human rights.

Furthermore, the United States and the United Kingdom continued their political and military support for Israel, despite political calls and civil society voices demanding an end to support following the assassination of volunteers in the international aid kitchen in Gaza. This incident, which sparked international outrage, did not deter these countries from their course. The continuous support from the United States and the United Kingdom indicates that Israel has a blank check to continue its crimes against the Palestinian people.

The West is not the only one supporting Israel

In the complex network of international relations, the relationships between Israel and some Arab and Islamic countries also stand out. On Saturday night, as the skies of the Middle East lit up with hundreds of drones and Iranian missiles against Israel, and as the sky over Gaza calmed for the first time in seven months, Washington realized its dream of forming a regional air defense system to protect Israel’s security. This network included radars, fighter jets, warships, and anti-aircraft batteries from Israel, the United States, and six other countries, including significant Arab countries. This massive deployment of collective defense capabilities was a significant moment in achieving America’s long-term goal of enhancing close military cooperation between Israel and its Arab neighbors, all of which serve Israel’s interests and oppose the Palestinian people.

The effectiveness of this defense was significantly enhanced by contributions from Arab countries, which provided crucial intelligence about Tehran’s attack plans.

These countries opened their airspace to Western warplanes in the face of an Iranian attack on Israel, exchanged radar tracking information, and in some cases, directly contributed military resources to defense efforts and the interception of Iranian missiles.

Looking at the bigger picture, we find Azerbaijan-Israeli relations, which are highly controversial, to play a significant role. Among the recent developments highlighting the complexity of these relations is the visit by activists from Jewish communities residing in America and Israel to areas in Karabakh. This event represents a noteworthy chapter in the evolving relations between Israel and Azerbaijan, a country with a Muslim majority where over 93% of the population is Muslim. This unprecedented and geopolitically consequential cooperation sheds light on breaking away from Islamic consensus in supporting the Palestinian cause and the people of Gaza, who suffer from killing, destruction, displacement, and siege.

Since October 7, 2023, with the start of the Israeli war on Gaza, global sentiments against Israel have escalated, especially in Arab and Islamic countries that strongly support the Palestinian cause. Despite this background, Azerbaijan’s position appears unexpectedly different from that of its Muslim-majority neighbors.

Azerbaijan’s unique position in this geopolitical puzzle can be attributed to its significant bilateral ties with Israel. It is noteworthy that Azerbaijan provides about 40% of Israel’s oil needs, a vital economic lifeline.

In conclusion, the first phase of Iran’s response to Israel has ended, imposing new rules of engagement and bringing shadow warfare into the open, in addition to achieving non-military objectives. The Iranian attack, along with previous attacks by resistance movements in Gaza and southern Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria, revealed that Israel is unable to protect itself without Western and non-Western support, including political, military, logistical, economic, oil supplies, and arms procurement.