What is the fate of Netanyahu’s government after the resignation of Gantz and his party?

Despite the withdrawal of the “Blue and White” party (which has 21 members in the Knesset) led by Minister Benny Gantz from the emergency government representing a significant morale blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Gantz’s resignation and his party’s withdrawal do not necessarily mean the collapse of his government.

Minister Benny Gantz, in the Israeli war cabinet, announced his withdrawal from the government on Sunday evening and called for early elections “as soon as possible.”

Additionally, Ministers Gadi Eisenkot (former Chief of Staff) and Hili Tropper, both belonging to the Blue and White Party led by Gantz, also announced their resignations following Gantz’s.

Gantz’s resignation came after issuing a warning to Netanyahu

Gantz’s resignation comes amidst the aftermath of the war Israel waged on Gaza since October 7th, which has left over 121,000 Palestinians dead or injured, around 10,000 missing, amidst massive destruction and deadly famine.

Gantz, head of the Blue and White Party, stated in a press conference, “With a heavy heart, I officially announce my withdrawal from the government… Netanyahu prevents us from progressing towards a real victory.”

On May 19th, Gantz, the leading candidate to form the next government, gave Netanyahu a deadline until June 8th to devise a clear strategy for the war on Gaza and its aftermath, threatening resignation otherwise.

Gantz had demanded Netanyahu, during the prior warning weeks, to devise a strategy with six objectives including: bringing back Israeli captives from Gaza, defeating Hamas, and disarming the Gaza Strip.

The strategy also includes identifying an alternative to Hamas in Gaza, allowing residents of northern Israel to return home by September 1st, and pushing forward with the normalization process with Saudi Arabia, and adopting the military service plan in Israel. However, Netanyahu did not announce this strategy.

Gantz’s party had joined Netanyahu’s extremist government days after the recent Temple Mount attack, forming the emergency government, subsequently forming a war cabinet, consisting of Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and Gantz, the former Chief of Staff.

Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot (Blue and White Party) and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer also participate in the council as observers.

For these reasons, Netanyahu’s government won’t fall automatically.

The withdrawal of the Blue and White Party (21 members) from the government does not mean its downfall. When they joined, Netanyahu already had the support of 64 deputies out of 120 in the Knesset.

To form or sustain a government, at least 61 deputies’ confidence is required.

Netanyahu’s governing coalition, formed before the war, consists of the right-wing Likud Party, the far-right Religious Zionist List (comprised of the Religious Zionist Party led by Smotrich and the Jewish Power Party led by Ben Gvir), two ultra-Orthodox religious parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism), and they still support his government.

For Netanyahu’s government to fall, four deputies must withdraw their support, which is unlikely to come from the extremist Ben Gvir and Smotrich parties who are the biggest beneficiaries of this government. Despite criticism from Likud member Yoav Galant towards Netanyahu repeatedly, it’s difficult to gauge his ability to lead a split within the party firmly under Netanyahu’s control, after Gantz’s resignation. The latter indirectly urged him to resign during his resignation speech, calling him a “brave leader” and stating, “Leadership is the right thing to do.”

For years, Netanyahu has deliberately undermined the creation of an alternative leadership in the Likud Party. Since becoming prime minister for the second time in 2009, he has never appointed a permanent deputy to automatically lead the country in case of his unexpected removal or dismissal. Instead, every time he travels abroad or undergoes a medical procedure under anesthesia, Netanyahu appoints a different senior minister from the Likud Party to temporarily replace him, as reported by The Times of Israel.

Some of the ultra-Orthodox religious parties that are partners in the government, like Shas and United Torah Judaism, have less ideological and political attachment to Netanyahu than Ben Gvir and Smotrich.

Some view the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism), which have shown flexibility in their political positions on many non-religious issues, as likely factions to support a campaign to hold a vote of no confidence in Netanyahu, according to a report by the American site VOX.

But could the scenario of the withdrawal of the ultra-Orthodox religious parties be achieved under the pressure of the Israeli opposition to pass the controversial Draft Law?

Gantz’s resignation may be an opportunity for Ben Gvir

Conversely, Gantz’s resignation from the government is good news for the Jewish Power and Religious Zionist parties, led by Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

The two parties, both from the far-right, were not satisfied with the war decisions being in the hands of the war council, which did not include representatives from them.

On several occasions, Ben Gvir and Smotrich, the staunchest supporters of continuing the war on Gaza, called for joining the war council or at least dissolving it, blatantly avoiding extremist calls for settling Gaza or expelling its residents.

After Gantz’s resignation, extremist National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on Netanyahu via XNetanyahu platform to include him in the war council.

Political analyst for the Israeli newspaper “Maariv,” Anna Barsk, citing sources close to Netanyahu unnamed, stated that the withdrawal of the Blue and White party would push Netanyahu to dissolve the War Cabinet.

Gantz’s resignation may lead to opposition mobilization

However, on the flip side, Gantz and his party’s resignation may stimulate opposition on the street against the current government. Although such movements, when they occurred in response to the controversial Judicial Amendments Law, did not lead to Netanyahu relinquishing power or the Likud overturning him.

One of the most prominent, the Israeli opposition, led by the “There is a Future” party leader Yair Lapid, repeatedly called for Gantz and Eisenkot to resign from the government in recent months.

The opposition wants Gantz to join their ranks in an attempt to overthrow the government and push towards early elections.

According to the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation (official), the US administration tried to persuade Gantz not to leave the government. And they revealed that “the Americans contacted Gantz in the past few days and tried to verify the possibility of delaying or preventing his withdrawal from the war government.”