The War on Gaza: Predictions and Possible Scenarios!

The war waged by the Zionist enemy on the Gaza Strip, supported by major world powers led by the United States, is approaching its eighth month. However, it seems like a futile cycle as fires continue to rage unabated, consuming the besieged and devastated Palestinians of Gaza. This aggression, accompanied by continuous attacks targeting cities in the occupied West Bank and its camps, has lost much of its credibility globally. Many who were deceived by its slogans now view it critically. Even among Israelis, it has lost significant international support it initially garnered, with many polls indicating that the war has turned into a pointless endeavor.

Since the beginning of the ground military operation against cities and camps in Gaza on October 27th of the previous year, the Israeli leadership set three main objectives. Foremost was the elimination of resistance under the guise of dismantling militant factions. Additionally, they sought the return of prisoners through aggressive military force and aimed to establish a Palestinian entity to administer Gaza post-resistance, akin to village councils or a UNIFIL-like force in southern Lebanon.

Since then, Israeli forces have attempted to portray their military operations in various Gaza cities through separate propaganda efforts, disconnected from reality, to achieve illusory successes. This is in contrast to their significant failures throughout the war, failing to achieve any of their proclaimed objectives, which has become a subject of mockery even among Israelis themselves.

The latest Israeli propaganda efforts focused on Rafah, southernmost Gaza, where their media machinery, along with politicians, military figures, and other executioners, have persistently threatened to invade for over four months. Despite global appeals against invading the city due to its high concentration of displaced persons and the Rafah crossing, the sole land connection between Gaza and the outside world, Israel, with U.S. political and legal cover, proceeded to occupy the city. They seized its vital crossing, cut off aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, prevented the evacuation of critically ill and wounded individuals needing urgent foreign medical care, and took control of the Salah al-Din Axis (“Philadelphia Corridor”) along the Palestinian-Egyptian border, committing atrocities along the way.

Currently, the Israeli military operation in Rafah continues unabated, with no imminent end in sight, especially given their repeated failures to achieve their proclaimed goals such as recovering Israeli prisoners or crushing resistance. There is a possibility this operation may expand to include all of Rafah’s geography, from its eastern reaches like Shoka and Jinaina to western and northwestern borders such as Saudi neighborhood and the ruins of al-Adas and more, should there be no progress in ceasefire negotiations.

Regardless of the outcomes of this operation, whether on the battlefield, operationally, or concerning the future of the Rafah crossing—now a pressure card for extorting resistance—the critical question remains: what will happen after the conclusion of the Rafah operation? What objectives will Israel seek to achieve after this long series of failures? How will it justify its ongoing crimes against civilians, including women, children, and the elderly?

In reality, the possible scenarios after the Rafah operations appear multifaceted and complex, with many suggesting a continued war of attrition in Gaza, maintaining a moderate pace of military operations similar to recent events in the occupied West Bank cities, albeit with different weaponry. Meanwhile, the repetition of Israeli attacks on previously targeted areas like Jabalia camp and al-Zeitoun district in Gaza suggests a futile cycle, necessitating ongoing military activities to justify the occupation’s continuation.

The second plausible scenario involves Israeli attacks focusing on areas in Gaza, such as Deir al-Balah in the central region, which have not yet seen extensive military operations but have become refuge to tens of thousands displaced from other areas like Rafah. Recent intense airstrikes in these areas, alongside others like Zawayda, west of Nusairat, and the central area of Gaza City including Daraj and Sahaba, indicate this scenario could soon unfold, as Israel appears determined to destroy any remnants that could revive normalcy in Gaza.

The third scenario, less likely but possible, involves minimizing Israeli attacks on Gaza to a minimum while shifting focus to executing aerial targeting and assassinations of resistance elements and leaders. Conversely, northern fronts of occupied Palestine witness heightened escalation, especially with Hezbollah expanding its offensive operations against Israeli military sites, resulting in significant Israeli losses in soldiers, officers, and military capabilities, particularly intelligence and surveillance devices along the Palestine-Lebanon border.

Despite being less likely, this scenario remains possible, particularly given repeated Israeli statements and multiple visits by Israeli Defense Minister Ya’alon and other officials to these fronts. This northern front has arguably become a major attrition front for the occupation, as Israel fails to find adequate solutions or remove it from the conflict equation, which could evolve into a regional conflict based on evolving conditions and circumstances.

In any case, regardless of future developments and potential events in the coming weeks and months—whether in the field or politically arising from this war—the events of October 7th of last year will remain a decisive turning point in the history of the Palestinian cause and possibly in the region and the world at large. The dramatic events that stunned the world have written a new chapter in the conflict between the Palestinian people and the colonial Israeli occupation and its supporters. This chapter makes it unmistakably clear that the era where the occupation was dominant and strong has irreversibly ended. The resisting forces now confronting this occupation and countering its criminal projects are no longer the weak and defeated forces they once were before the battle began.