Is Netanyahu dragging Biden into a devastating war with Hezbollah?

The Guardian published a report by Julian Borger, in which he quoted an American official who resigned because of Gaza, stating that a devastating war between the Israeli occupation state and Lebanon could drag the United States into it.

Harrison Mann, a major in the Defense Intelligence Agency who left the military last month due to the US’s unlimited support for the Israeli occupation state in the Gaza war, said that “the war that Benjamin Netanyahu wants with Hezbollah is political and aims to preserve his political future.”

Despite the Israeli occupation state announcing last month that it had completed preparations for invading Lebanon and the war rhetoric being used by Israeli officials, American officials privately say that “Netanyahu’s government is aware of the dangers of a war with Hezbollah and thus will not risk or seek an opportunity for a military confrontation.”

Mann, one of the prominent American military officers, resigned because of the war on Gaza, stating that there are high risks of the Israeli occupation state entering a war on its northern borders for internal political purposes and to shield Netanyahu from corruption accusations.

He added, “We specifically know that the Prime Minister of the Israeli occupation state, Benjamin Netanyahu, wants to prolong his political life and to stay away from court, and the motive exists.”

He continued that any Israeli government would be sensitive to the political pressure from tens of thousands of Israelis who have been displaced from the border areas, fleeing Hezbollah’s rockets and artillery shelling.

Moreover, the senior military leadership of the Israeli occupation army must face the Iran-aligned Shiite group sooner or later, yet the Israelis have underestimated the cost of a new war in Lebanon, according to Mann.

He added, “I don’t know how realistic their assessments are about the destruction Israel would inflict on Hezbollah, but I am sure they have no idea about their success against Hezbollah.”

The former intelligence officer argued that the Israeli occupation army is fully aware that it is unable to deliver a decisive blow to Hezbollah’s arsenal through preemptive strikes, as the rockets and artillery are fortified in the Lebanese mountains.

Instead, the Israeli occupation state would resort to assassinating Hezbollah leaders and striking Shiite residential areas to kill morale, in a tactic known as the Dahiya Doctrine, named after the 33-day war in July 2006.

Mann said, “This is not a real written doctrine, but I believe we have the ability to assess the targeting of civilian centers as a means to force the enemy, which is a clear and accepted belief within the army and Israeli leadership.”

He continued, “We have seen them do this over the past nine months in Gaza.” He confirmed that “such a plan will backfire. They believe that launching a preemptive strike will be successful in deterring Hezbollah and making Israel safer, which shows a lack of strategic thinking and planning in general.”

Mann predicted that Hezbollah would launch intense rocket attacks, especially if it felt its existence was threatened, and it is likely that they have the capability, at least partially, to overwhelm Israeli air defenses and strike civilian infrastructure around the country, causing levels of destruction that the Israeli occupation state has not experienced in its recent history.

He emphasized that given the Israeli occupation state’s inability to destroy Hezbollah’s arsenal from the air, it would be forced to launch a ground invasion in southern Lebanon, which would come at a high cost with many Israeli casualties.

Mann also warned that Hezbollah’s targeting of Israeli cities would force the Biden administration, in an election year, to provide more support to Netanyahu’s government. It would not be able to ignore his demands for US intervention in the war.

He added, “Our minimum participation would be to strike supply lines or related targets in Iraq and Syria and assist in cutting communication and armament lines going to Hezbollah. But this is a risk in itself because if we start doing this, we might hit some Hezbollah fighters, who may be from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.”

He also believes that “the Biden administration will try to avoid a direct war with Iran, but the risks of a regional war will be high.” He continued, “I am confident the administration will not do this, but I believe that whether it’s us or the Israelis, hitting Iranian targets outside Iran will carry high risks of escalation.”

Mann resigned in November, and his resignation became effective in June. In May, he published his resignation letter on the social media platform LinkedIn, stating, “The US’s support for Israel in the Gaza war helped and contributed to the killing and starvation of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians.”

Mann, who is of European Jewish descent, continued in the same letter, “I grew up in an intolerant environment, and when it comes to taking responsibility for ethnic cleansing, the reaction from my colleagues since my resignation has been generally positive. Many people I worked with and some I didn’t have contacted me, saying they felt the same way. It is not a generational issue; it is clear among older people who feel the same way.”