‘Israel’ to suffer ‘severe damage’ in war with Hezbollah

Hezbollah’s diverse and extensive arsenal can cause “severe damage to Israel,” the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) found. 

The security-focused Israeli institute surveyed the effects of the ongoing confrontations on the Northern Front and examined the possible outcomes of an all-out war with Lebanon, in an extensive report. The issue is currently of great importance, as Israeli officials threaten war against Lebanon, which is estimated to produce devastating results for the Israeli settler-colonial project. 

INSS reported that the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon has fired more than 5,000 projectiles toward Israeli targets since October 8, 2023. This includes high-trajectory shells, such as rocket artillery shells, and direct-fire projectiles, such as anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), which the Resistance has fired to hit targets with precision. 

These attacks have caused at least 29 Israeli fatalities and considerable damage, according to the report. 

However, INSS focused on the effects that the attacks have caused in settlements and the major city of Kiryat Shmona, pointing to a “growing sense of futility regarding the future of the northern border.” This includes 28 settlements and Kiryat Shmona, all of which have been largely evacuated over the period of the ongoing battles. It said that the situation has left settlers “wondering when and under what conditions they will be able” to return to the colonial outposts. 

After listing the current conditions experienced by Israelis on the Northern Front, the institute delved into the possibility of a comprehensive war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah. 

Main threat to ‘Israel’

According to the report, Hezbollah has become the main military threat to the Israeli occupation since the Israeli 2006 war on Lebanon. The Resistance faction undertook a “dramatic buildup,” in which it was able to secure a stockpile of “at least 150,000 missiles, rockets, and other lethal weapons.”

The stockpile includes medium and long-range precision-guided munitions comprised of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, advanced coastal anti-ship missiles, thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and ATGMs, INSS explained. 

Hezbollah also secured advanced cyber systems, which when paired with its military arsenal can cause “massive fatalities and critical national infrastructure destructions to civilian and military targets,” the Israeli institute underlined. 

It found that a war with Lebanon, that would drag on for months, can cause “severe damage to Israel.”

What would a full-scale war with Hezbollah look like for ‘Israel’?

Shortages in air-defense munitions

In the initial phase of an all-out war with Lebanon, INSS said that Israeli air defense systems would have to overcome barrages of up to thousands of projectiles per day. 

The institute said that “not all” of these projectiles could be intercepted. 

When examining the current developments on the Northern Front, Israeli interception rates of rocket artillery strikes have already been cut into, despite current salvos being limited to a few dozen shells in most cases. Shells impact Israeli sites and occupied territories on a near daily basis, as Israeli occupation forces focus their anti-air capabilities on protecting military infrastructure rather than settler communities. 

Moreover, INSS believes that barrages could also be launched from other fronts such as Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, all of which have factions or are part of the Axis of Resistance. 

Such a scenario could “overwhelm the layers of Israeli air defenses and possibly lead to a shortage of interception ammunition,” the institute found. 

Prioritizing Israeli assets

As has already been experienced on the Northern Front, evidenced by multiple shells that impacted Israeli settlements during Hezbollah’s response to Israeli attacks on Lebanese towns, Israeli occupation forces are likely to prioritize specific sites and assets over others. 

This would come as a result of “a military and civilian threat that Israel has never experienced,” INSS explained. 

“The Air Force is likely to give top priority to the defense of critical military assets such as air force bases, second priority to essential national infrastructure, and only third priority to the civilian population,” the Israeli institute added. 

It also pointed to the “short supply” of passive protection methods, which include shelters of all kinds. 

Power outages to have detrimental effects

INSS also pointed to the cruciality of safeguarding critical infrastructure, especially those related to painting the functionality of Israeli settler and military spheres. 

It is likely that Hezbollah, as pointed out by its Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on multiple occasions, targets vital sites in the Israeli occupation such as power plants, ports, and roads, in full-scale war.

INSS warns that sensitive systems such as the power grid, communications land, sea, and air transportation networks, and supply chains from abroad and within the occupied territories, could result in direct hits to essential functions. 

Power disruptions could also affect production, transportation, and transmission facilities and threats to natural gas production platforms in the Mediterranean. 

Further crumbling the collective Israeli mentality

The risks posed by a multi-front war, particularly if it coincides with the ongoing war in Gaza, present severe challenges to Israeli settler communities and significant obstacles to recovery from the war, both physically and mentally, the institute found. 

It said that the Israeli settler population is suffering from “collective trauma,” caused by the events of October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian Resistance dismantled the Israeli notions of security and superior military intelligence. 

The ongoing war on Gaza and the operations of the supporting fronts have also severely impacted “resilience” among Israeli settlers. INSS cited its own data and surveys conducted by other entities as evidence of the declining “resilience.”

Specifically, recent polls indicate a significant decline in “resilience” when compared to the initial months of the war on Gaza, indicating the toll that the war which has dragged on for nine months has had on Israeli settlers. 

The term refers to perceived solidarity, trust in Israeli government institutions and Israeli occupation forces, and the level of optimism and hope among settlers. These are crucial markers of the readiness of Israeli settler communities that should be examined ahead of taking major and drastic decisions, such as launching a war on Lebanon. It is expected that amid splitting political disputes and a toxic public discourse, affecting multiple facets of Israeli settlers’ lives, doubts are emerging regarding the mental preparedness of Israeli society for a prolonged war on the Northern Front. 

It is therefore expected, that an all-out war against Hezbollah will disrupt the lives of settlers and will affect more Israelis, leading to severe implications for the recovery of settlers. 

War with Hezbollah must be avoided

As a result of the severe impact that a war on Lebanon would have on the Israeli settler colonial project, the institutes’ researchers recommended the following:

1. 1. The current “public atmosphere,” including the toxic political debate and the apparent decline in settlers’ resilience, must be seriously considered before deciding on the expansion of the war in the north. 

1. 1. The continuation of the war on Gaza means that Israeli authorities should avoid a high-intensity multi-front war elsewhere. Even if the war is initiated by Hezbollah, Israeli authorities must respond in a measured and proportionate manner.

1. 1. A ceasefire in the Gaza Strip could potentially allow for a ceasefire on the Northern Front and a diplomatic settlement under international mediation. 

1. 1. In the case of an all-out war, Israeli authorities should opt for a short and territorially confined confrontation, to ensure minimal material and moral damage to the occupation. 

1. 1. The high risks of a war scenario necessitate that authorities close existing gaps as soon as possible. 

1. 1. Significant efforts must be made to manage the Israeli settler community’s expectations of a war on Lebanon, as so far no steps have been taken to circumvent the effects of “this severe scenario.”