The Assassination of Haniyeh: What Are the Iranian Response Scenarios?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Wednesday that Tel Aviv is prepared for any scenario following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr and Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh. He emphasized that he will not stop the war on the Gaza Strip.

This comes as both Tel Aviv and Hezbollah confirmed Shukr’s assassination in an Israeli airstrike on a building in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Netanyahu, in a speech broadcast by Hebrew media including the official broadcasting authority, said: “I made it clear from the beginning of the war (on Gaza) that we are at war against the Iranian axis of evil.”

Hinting at his responsibility for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, he added: “In the past few days, we dealt a crushing blow to Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah.”

Netanyahu claimed: “Three weeks ago, we targeted Hamas Chief of Staff Mohammad Deif, two weeks ago we attacked the Houthis in one of the Air Force’s longest-range attacks, and on Tuesday we targeted Hezbollah Chief of Staff (Fuad Shukr).”

He alleged that Shukr was responsible for the rocket that landed on the town of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights last Saturday (Hezbollah denied responsibility for the launch), resulting in the deaths of 12 people.

Iranian Response Scenarios

Netanyahu indicated that “difficult days are ahead of us. Since the attack in Beirut, we have heard threats from all sides, and we will face any threat and exact a heavy price from anyone who attacks us from any front.”

The Israeli Prime Minister mentioned that he has been under pressure for months to end the war, but he insisted: “I did not yield to those voices and will not yield,” justifying that: “Had we yielded, we would not have destroyed terrorists and infrastructures, would not have controlled the Philadelphia Corridor (on the Gaza-Egypt border), and would not have prepared the conditions that bring us closer to the plan to release the abductees (held in Gaza).”

Meanwhile, the American newspaper The New York Times quoted three Iranian officials confirming that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered a direct strike on Israel in response to Haniyeh’s assassination.

The newspaper reported that Khamenei issued the order in an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning, shortly after Tehran announced Haniyeh’s assassination.

It pointed out that one of the options includes a coordinated drone and missile attack on military bases in Haifa and Tel Aviv without targeting civilians.

Citing Iranian officials, the newspaper continued: “Among the options under consideration is a coordinated attack from Iran and other fronts where it has allied forces, including Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, to achieve maximum impact.”

Hazem Klass, a correspondent for Al-Araby TV in Tehran, noted that the details of the Iranian response could not be confirmed, pointing out that a direct response to Israel is one of the scenarios being considered given that Haniyeh’s assassination occurred on Iranian soil.

Haniyeh’s Assassination “Will Take the Battle to a Wider Level”

Stephen Dujarric, speaking to reporters, said: “The Secretary-General considers the attacks we have seen in southern Beirut and Tehran to be a serious escalation at a time when all efforts should lead to a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of Israeli hostages, a significant increase in humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza, and the restoration of calm in Lebanon and along the Blue Line” between Lebanon and Israel.

The Houthis declared that “the crime of targeting the great mujahid Ismail Haniyeh will be a greater incentive for steadfastness, perseverance, and dedication in the way of God Almighty and the punishment of the criminal enemy.”

They vowed “revenge for the martyr and all martyrs, and for the injustice of the Palestinian people, in cooperation with the axis of resistance.”