What the Ismail Haniyeh assassination means for Gaza ceasefire talks

The assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday risks the region spiralling into a wider conflict and could help or hurt prospects for a ceasefire deal to end Israel’s war on Gaza, several analysts informed.

Haniyeh was killed while attending the inauguration of reformist Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Iran’s capital, Tehran. Hamas has blamed the assassination on Israel, saying in a statement that Haniyeh was killed in “a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran”. There was no immediate comment from Israel.

The attack occurred hours after Israel struck a building on Tuesday evening in Dahiya, a bustling neighbourhood in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, killing Fuad Shukr, a top commander from the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. The strike in Beirut came three days after an attack killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights which Israel has blamed on Hezbollah, although the group denies responsibility.

Risk of further escalation

The killing of Haniyeh and Shukr will push Iran and Hezbollah to respond delicately to avoid a full-blown regional conflict. Diplomats from the United States and the European Union are reported to be in talks with their regional counterparts, trying to prevent the crisis from spiralling further. The EU’s efforts are believed to be focused on Iran, whose leaders have vowed “harsh revenge” against Israel, whom they have blamed for Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran.

But any retaliation – even if measured – raises the possibility of further escalation. Experts were unsure of how Hamas, which governs Gaza, will – or can – respond, given they have been entrenched already in a 10-month war with Israel.

The attack on two regional capitals and the targeting of two senior leaders of the “axis of resistance” – a regional network of armed groups opposed to Israel-US hegemony in the region – “is an escalation that can expand this war on multiple fronts,” said Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran and a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.

“[But] I don’t think Iran wants a major escalation,” she told media press. “They avoided that back in April when they saw Israel’s attack on their consulate in Syria as crossing a red line – and Iran retaliated, but in a way that minimised the impact [of their strikes] to avoid a major escalation.

“I expect a similar situation again this time.”

Mortazavi was referring to Iran’s attack in April when it fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel in response to an air strike on Iran’s consulate building in Syria, which killed seven people including two Iranian generals. Iranian authorities blamed Israel for the attack. Iranian officials also said repeatedly that regional states were given a warning 72 hours before the barrage was launched on Israel.

What about the Gaza ceasefire deal?

The assassination of Haniyeh – a key interlocutor for Israel in negotiations to end the war in Gaza – could either sabotage or accelerate a peace deal, analysts said.

Israel’s devastating war on Gaza has killed nearly 40,000 people, uprooted almost the entire population of 2.3 million and led to what UN experts are calling a famine in the enclave. The war started in response to a Hamas-led attack on Israeli communities and military outposts on October 7, in which 1,139 people were killed and about 250 were taken captive.

Over the last few months, Hamas and Israel have been locked in ceasefire talks aimed at ending the killing in Gaza and releasing Israeli captives in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners, who risk abuse in Israeli prisons.

But Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has often undermined ceasefire talks, according to critics and experts.

They accuse Netanyahu, whose popularity is at an all-time low, of not wanting to end the war for fear that it could collapse his far-right coalition government and trigger an early election.But Mairav Zonszein, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the International Crisis Group, believes that Netanyahu could try to tout the assassination of Haniyeh as a “victory” for Israel, making it more politically feasible for him to agree to a ceasefire.

“Counter-intuitively, some Israeli officials may say this [assassination] brings us closer to a ceasefire, because we have a victory narrative now,” said Zonszein.

Azmi Keshawi, a Crisis Group researcher and an expert on Hamas, believes Israel should agree to a deal soon if they are able to capitalise on the momentum of killing Haniyeh.

Many Israelis are calling for a ceasefire in order to retrieve the captives in Gaza and to ease pressure on the Israeli army, which is running low on equipment, munitions and reservists who are increasingly refusing to report for duty.

Keshawi added that if Israel drags on negotiations further, they may find Haniyeh’s replacement less compromising.

“Haniyeh was not considered a hardliner. He was a unifying man and he was ready to compromise. Now with his absence, [Israel] may need to deal with a hardliner person from the top [brass] of Hamas,” he told Al Jazeera.

“If Israel and the US are smart, then they will take this victory image that they were looking for in order to get out of Gaza,” he added.

Empowered to act

The Hamas-led attack on October 7 was seen by Israelis and security experts as a major Israeli intelligence failure. But the assassination of Haniyeh has helped restore confidence for many Israelis in their security and intelligence apparatus, said Ori Goldberg, a commentator and analyst on Israel.

“What this attack does is it breathes new life into the Israel army’s high branch. They are saying, ‘Hey, we can still do stuff and we are not as incompetent as we appeared’,” Goldberg told Al Jazeera.

“But assassinating Haniyeh in Tehran is a major blow to Iran’s self-esteem and not something that can be disregarded,” he added.

Imad Salamey, a political scientist and scholar at the Lebanese American University, believes Iran and its “proxies” – referring to armed groups aligned with Iran – will feel compelled to respond, echoing the views of several other analysts.

“[Israel’s attack] could provoke coordinated retaliation by Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, using more sophisticated and lethal weapons,” he said. “However, Iran is likely to favour a low-intensity conflict, aiming to drag Israel into a prolonged, costly war of attrition.”

The United States carries the most responsibility for allowing Israel to potentially derail Gaza ceasefire talks and provoke regional escalation, Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the Middle East Council on Foreign Relations in Doha, Qatar, said.

“Because of unconditional US backing, Israel feels empowered to act as it sees fit and the latest manifestation of that” are the recent events in Beirut and Tehran, Rahman told Al Jazeera.

“US support [for Israel] is one of the main factors behind everything that has transpired since October 7, and the threat of regional war also stems from that,” he said.