Tense Diplomacy in Doha: Iran Warned Amid Gaza Ceasefire Talks

The Qatari capital, Doha, hosted a second round of ceasefire negotiations for the Gaza Strip on Friday, following the announcement of the talks’ resumption for the second consecutive day. This comes amid reports from Israeli media indicating that Thursday’s initial round showed signs of “progress,” potentially delaying a possible Iranian attack on Israel.

On Thursday, a new round of ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations was held in Doha, described as “decisive,” following an invitation from the mediating countries—the United States, Egypt, and Qatar—aimed at reaching a swift agreement. The goal was to “avoid wasting time and begin implementing the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement without delay by any party.”

Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that “the mediators’ meeting to end the war on Gaza, held Thursday in Doha, is ongoing and will resume on Friday.” Spokesperson Majed bin Mohammed Al-Ansari emphasized that “the mediators are determined to move forward with their efforts towards achieving a ceasefire.”

The news outlet Axios reported, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that “some progress was made on the first day of the new round of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.”

Meanwhile, the Cairo Today channel, citing sources familiar with the negotiations, mentioned that significant gaps remain between the parties, with the Egyptian security delegation taking steps to reach an agreement.

Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman summarized the first day of negotiations with certain developments, noting that Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani had a conversation with Iranian leadership about “positive developments” in the negotiations, prompting a reconsideration of the potential attack.

Bergman, writing for the Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, quoted a source in one of the mediating countries, stating that while the Qatari Foreign Minister did not explicitly say so, his message during a phone call was clear: “He told senior officials in Tehran: We are making progress—slowly, but we are progressing.”

He subtly hinted to the Iranians, “You should carefully consider whether it is wise for you or Hezbollah to attack Israel at a time when such progress is being made,” according to the Israeli report.

A state of alert prevails among Israeli circles amid expectations of a potential response from Iran and Hezbollah following the assassination of elected Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and prominent Lebanese Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in southern Beirut.

The Israeli journalist noted that “this phone call appears to have had a noticeable impact, as shortly afterward, senior officials from the mediating countries learned that Hezbollah, contrary to an earlier decision to attack Israel, decided to postpone the attack for the time being, regardless of who would carry it out, until the situation of the negotiations—the regional situation—becomes clearer.”

Reuters quoted three senior Iranian officials as saying that the “only way” to postpone Iran’s direct response to Israel would be to reach a ceasefire agreement in the hoped-for negotiations in Gaza.

An Iranian senior security official told Reuters that Tehran and Hezbollah in Lebanon “would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or if they feel that Israel is stalling in the negotiations.”

Bergman pointed out another “positive signal” in the negotiations, noting that “unlike previous instances, the delegations did not immediately pack up their secret documents, briefcases, and personal guards to head to the airport, but instead agreed to Qatar’s Prime Minister’s proposal to stay in Doha” for a second round of talks.

He emphasized that “the mere decision to stay indicated that the representatives of the four countries—Israel, the United States, Egypt, and Qatar—believe there was progress in the talks, and perhaps a possibility to further enhance it.”

Bergman added that “senior officials from Qatar and Egypt are shuttling between the negotiation room and Hamas offices in Doha, where they are briefing the organization’s leaders, including Khalil al-Hayya, on the results of the discussions.”

The Israeli journalist provided details on the talks during Thursday’s round, pointing out that “one of the Israeli team leaders told his counterparts from the three countries: We came with a relatively broad mandate, but don’t be mistaken: Netanyahu still has his own demands, and it’s not certain they can be reconciled with the understandings with Hamas.”

He stressed that “the negotiation teams face many challenges, as discussions on critical clauses 8 and 14, related to the mechanisms for the second phase of hostage and prisoner exchange, the conditions for conducting the talks, and the final ceasefire, are yet to be concluded. There are also a series of new obstacles and conditions that Netanyahu ordered to be added to the agreement proposed by Israel itself on May 27, including Israel’s refusal to withdraw from the Philadelphi Route, a point of total opposition from both Egypt and Hamas; the demand for security arrangements at the Rafah crossing not managed by Hamas or the Palestinian Authority; an agreed mechanism at the Netzarim route; and the lists of hostages still alive, among many other issues.”

At the end of the first day, the report quoted a senior official from one of the mediating countries saying, “It seems that a breakthrough was made on one key issue, suggesting a possible solution to the Netzarim Route issue.”

The Israeli journalist concluded that “this breakthrough, whose details remain unknown, is what allowed for the optimism and the ability to report certain progress. Subsequently, the Qatari Prime Minister and Egyptian intelligence chief went to brief Hamas leaders who were waiting in their offices.”

According to the report, a senior Israeli security official confirmed the details of the attack’s postponement by Iran and Hezbollah but also requested to temper reports of significant progress in the negotiations themselves, stating, “The Israeli team left with very few gains. They do not have a broad mandate at all, and none of them, even if Mossad Chief claimed otherwise in his talks with external parties, believe it will be sufficient.”

An Israeli senior security official added, “Everyone has an interest in conveying that the situation is good, but it’s a shame to mislead the public with illusions,” and cautioned against over-optimism regarding the negotiations.

On Thursday, Hamas Political Bureau member Husam Badran stated that the movement views the ongoing ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Doha “from a strategic perspective aimed at ending the aggression on Gaza.”

Badran added in a statement published by the movement on Telegram that “Hamas believes that any negotiations should be based on a clear plan to implement what has been previously agreed upon.”

He clarified that “the obstacle to reaching a ceasefire in Gaza is the continued Israeli stalling.”