The UAE’s Strategy: Alliance with Israel, Support for Authoritarianism, and Pushing for the Division of Yemen

A French researcher has identified three key elements in the UAE’s strategy in the Middle East: forming an alliance with Israel and promoting normalization, supporting authoritarian regimes, and pushing for the division of Yemen.

In an interview with the magazine Orient XXI, researcher Stéphane Lacroix explained that the UAE’s policies do not contribute to the stability of the region; instead, they act as a source of disruption, chaos, and destruction.

Lacroix emphasized that, in the eyes of the Emiratis, there can be no stability without authoritarianism. The model they advocate is in direct opposition to the Arab Spring, favoring strongmen like Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, whom they vigorously support.

He added that this UAE-backed model combines economic liberalism and free market policies to facilitate trade, along with openness to Israel. From their perspective, integrating Tel Aviv into this dynamic is not an issue, as normalization with Israel is expected to bring economic benefits that they hope to achieve.

Lacroix highlighted that achieving such desired outcomes often involves engaging in intense warfare. The UAE has participated in conflicts in Libya, Yemen, Sudan, and other regions.

He warned that the rulers of the UAE are complicit in supporting political regimes that commit severe human rights violations, as seen in Egypt, where, in a single day in August 2013 following Sisi’s coup, Egyptian police massacred a thousand supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Moreover, Lacroix questioned the sustainability of the UAE’s model, which assumes that a combination of authoritarianism and economic liberalism can endure.

“I don’t see this model being applicable across the entire region, especially given its complexity and fragmentation,” Lacroix noted. “If there’s one lesson to be learned from the Arab Spring, it’s that imposing such a model could lead to further instability rather than stability in the long run.”

The French researcher pointed out that since 2011, the UAE has launched a regional campaign against political Islam movements abroad, starting with Egypt, where Abu Dhabi played a significant role in the Egyptian army’s ousting of then-President Mohamed Morsi in early July 2013.

This intervention continued in Libya, where the UAE sided with General Khalifa Haftar and supported him in his war against the Muslim Brotherhood, even going so far as to conduct airstrikes.

In Tunisia, the UAE opposed the Ennahda Party, led by Rached Ghannouchi, which came to power in 2011, and supported the Nidaa Tounes party under Beji Caid Essebsi. However, by 2017, the UAE expressed discontent with Essebsi for not taking a more pro-Emirati stance.

The UAE also became involved in Yemen, a matter of significant importance to them, although their motivations differ from those driving Saudi Arabia. Officially, both monarchies are fighting the Houthis and seeking to bolster the legitimacy of the recognized government.

However, Lacroix noted that the UAE’s primary goal is to eliminate political Islam from Yemen. To achieve this, Abu Dhabi resolutely backs any forces opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, even if this sometimes means supporting Salafi militias, despite their mutual animosity.

The UAE’s strategy, therefore, diverges from that of its ally Saudi Arabia, as Abu Dhabi seeks to divide Yemen by promoting the establishment of a southern state. This would allow the UAE to control the region, which is under the influence of a separatist movement that receives UAE support.

Lacroix concluded by stating that Abu Dhabi’s overarching objective is to ensure that the separatists, who are opponents of political Islam, serve the UAE’s interests. The separation of South Yemen would enable the UAE to create its own special protectorate.