Why Have Ceasefire Attempts in Gaza Reached a Dead End?

The American magazine Politico reported, citing American and Israeli officials, that the proposed agreement aiming to establish a ceasefire in Gaza and negotiate a prisoner exchange between Israel and resistance factions is “on the verge of collapse, with no clear alternative plan in sight.” On Tuesday, August 20, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cast doubt on the possibility of reaching a “prisoner exchange” deal with Hamas, reaffirming his insistence on maintaining Israeli military presence in the “Philadelphia” and “Netzarim” corridors in Gaza. This stance effectively undermines the proposal that mediators have been advocating for some time, which Netanyahu has consistently rejected.

Sources from the Israeli negotiating team accused Netanyahu on Tuesday evening of trying to “sabotage the negotiations” and hinder the progress toward a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas. Meanwhile, a senior official in President Joe Biden’s administration criticized Netanyahu’s recent statements, describing them as “extreme,” according to the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation.

Netanyahu is seeking a prisoner exchange deal and a temporary ceasefire in Gaza but without withdrawing from certain areas in the territory. He aims to either derail the negotiations without taking the blame, a strategy that Washington is helping him achieve by directing the blame toward Hamas for stalling progress in the Gaza ceasefire talks.

U.S. Adjusts Offer to Satisfy Israel, and Hamas Responds to Biden’s Claims

Politico magazine reported that the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are based on an “Israeli proposal” announced by U.S. President Joe Biden on May 31. The proposal includes three phases: a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza, the entry of humanitarian aid, and the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails in exchange for Israeli hostages in Gaza.

Last week, the United States announced a proposal aimed at “narrowing the gaps,” but Hamas rejected this proposal, stating that it “closely aligns with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent positions,” which include refusing to withdraw from Gaza and launching attacks on the territory at will.

Officials told Politico that this development “raised increasing concerns among U.S. officials that the proposal will stumble,” similar to previous efforts, amid disagreements and the lack of a clear path to end the fighting or bring the hostages home.

On Tuesday, Biden claimed that Hamas is “backtracking” on the proposed agreement, adding that the settlement “remains on the table, but nothing can be predicted.” He noted that “Israel says it can achieve an outcome… and Hamas is now retreating.”

However, Hamas stated that Biden’s remarks about the movement backtracking on the Gaza ceasefire agreement are misleading and do not reflect the truth. The movement emphasized its commitment to stopping the aggression. In a statement, Hamas added that Biden and Blinken’s comments are part of the U.S.’s bias towards Israel and its participation in the aggression and genocidal war against civilians in Gaza.

Hamas pointed out that the recent proposals regarding the prisoner exchange deal and ceasefire in Gaza represent a “reversal” of the agreements reached by the parties on July 2. They added that this reflects an “American submission to Netanyahu’s new conditions and criminal schemes against Gaza.” The movement reiterated its commitment to what was agreed upon with the mediators on July 2, 2024, which is based on Biden’s declaration and the UN Security Council’s resolution. Hamas called on the mediators to take responsibility and compel Israel to accept it.

Israeli Hostage Families Accuse Netanyahu of Sabotaging the Deal

On Tuesday evening, the Israeli Association of Hostages and Former Prisoners attacked Prime Minister Netanyahu, criticizing his behavior regarding the delay in the negotiations with Hamas. In a statement published by Haaretz, the families of the Israeli hostages said that “the full and direct responsibility for the fate of the negotiations lies with Prime Minister Netanyahu. His continuous attempts to blame the negotiating teams, mediators, the press, the families of the hostages, and even the hostages themselves are attempts to deceive public opinion and the entire world.”

The statement continued, “Prime Minister Netanyahu holds the authority, and therefore he is responsible. If he is as successful in managing the negotiations as he claims, he should personally intervene and work to bring back the hostages who were abandoned under his watch for ten months.”

The mother of one of the Israeli hostages quoted Mossad Chief David Barnea, who reportedly said that an agreement is impossible under Netanyahu’s current extremist government, according to Israeli media.

Einav Tsangaoker, the mother of soldier Matan, stated: “Mossad Chief told me that under the current political configuration of the government, an agreement would not be possible,” as reported by Israel Hayom.

Tsangaoker was speaking before a non-governmental civilian inquiry committee into the events of October 7. She said, “I want to reveal to this committee that when I met with Mossad Chief David Barnea, and I got indications of the stages that Israel will take in the negotiations, of course under the supervision of the Prime Minister.”

She added, “At the end of the conversation, the Mossad Chief told me, and I quote: ‘Einav, my dear, unfortunately, under the current political composition, it will not be possible to reach a deal to release the hostages.'”

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have repeatedly opposed the prisoner exchange deal and the Gaza ceasefire, threatening to withdraw from the government if an agreement is reached.

“Netanyahu is Deceiving Everyone”: Last-Chance Negotiations Collapse

During the Democratic conference in Chicago last Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden said, “The protesters are right; the war must end.” During his visit to Israel, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that this might be “the last chance” to reach an agreement and that these are “critical moments, and everyone should stop finding excuses to say no.”

However, Haaretz writer Alon Pinkas says that Americans are pushing for an agreement with renewed urgency, trying to avoid a regional war before the November presidential elections. But if the deal fails now, it will reveal whether the U.S. is prepared to use the leverage it has chosen not to apply to Netanyahu in the past ten months.

Pinkas argues that Netanyahu is once again deceiving everyone. After his meeting with Blinken, he went so far as to say that Israel had agreed to the American proposal to bridge the gap and called on Hamas to do the same. However, the families of the soldiers who were killed in the war said that Netanyahu told them he was “not sure an agreement could be reached.”

But the most telling quote came from Einav Zangaker, the mother of prisoner Matan Zangaker, who revealed that in a recent meeting with Mossad Chief David Barnea, he told her that “under the current political leadership, a hostage deal is completely impossible.” Despite the Prime Minister’s Office’s quick denial, it is known that Barnea was not only expressing his own opinion but also reflecting the prevailing thinking among all Israeli hostage negotiators, who believe Netanyahu has been doing everything possible for months to undermine the deal. Mossad (or the Prime Minister’s Office) can deny all it wants, but the U.S. knows this is Barnea’s stance.

Regional War

Israeli writer Pinkas asserts that all Netanyahu can offer Blinken is “a positive, conditional, and temporary response in English, followed by additional conditions and clarifications in Hebrew that render the English text void and null.” In any case, he is required to present any deal, even if preliminary, to the cabinet for a vote. Therefore, everything he told Blinken was conditional. Secondly, Netanyahu’s alleged positive response means nothing regarding the feasibility of implementing the plan.

Thus, Blinken might find himself on a plane back to Washington, realizing that the U.S. has been deceived again, as Netanyahu agreed to a deal he knows Hamas cannot accept.

Pinkas argues that Israel under Netanyahu does not want to reach an agreement but prefers to prolong the war, even if it leads to a regional conflict. This brings us back to the American dilemma: saying, “We did our best, but it was impossible,” is meaningless. America has the power, influence, and pressure tools that it chose not to use against Netanyahu in the past ten months. The coming days will indicate whether it is now prepared to use them, as no one in the Biden administration wants this war to continue and the crisis to worsen by November (the election date).

For his part, military and strategic expert Fayez Al-Duwairi stated on the “X” platform that the current negotiations will end in a deadlock and inevitable failure. He said the writing is on the wall, as Netanyahu continues to insist on staying in the Netzarim and Philadelphia corridors, controlling the return of refugees to the north, and deporting many of the prisoners who will be released to outside Palestine.

Al-Duwairi believes that Netanyahu is bolstering his hardline stance with the extreme right and continuous American support at all levels by aligning with his demands and attempting to justify them, providing false and embellished statements to place the blame for the expected failure on Hamas. His hardline position is also supported by the weak Arab stance, incapable of supporting the resistance, with some even preferring the fighting to continue until Hamas is eradicated.

Al-Duwairi adds that Iran’s delayed response and the resistance in Lebanon to the assassinations carried out by Israel, along with Netanyahu’s attempt to expand the conflict into a regional war, mean we must wait until Blinken leaves the region to see the promised response. If it happens—which is the more likely scenario—it will reshuffle the cards in favor of Gaza. If not, Gaza will continue to fend for itself as it has since October 7.