Negotiations to End the War on Gaza: What Lies Ahead?

Since the onset of the war on Gaza, Netanyahu and his extremist team have shown no genuine interest in reaching a deal that would end the conflict and compel Israeli forces to withdraw from the territory before achieving their declared objectives: crushing Hamas, recovering Israeli captives on their terms, and imposing their vision for governing Gaza in the aftermath. Netanyahu knew that failing to achieve these goals would implicitly signal a victory for the resistance, and any agreement meeting even the minimum demands of the resistance would effectively end his political career and possibly lead to his imprisonment. For months, Netanyahu and his Likud party’s popularity had been plummeting, making it clear that he and his potential allies would lose in any upcoming elections.

Thus, Netanyahu’s continuation of the war was an attempt to buy time and maintain his position in the political spotlight for as long as possible, hoping to shift the balance in his favor. This was also a response to his state of denial, unable to imagine a humiliating end, as he sees himself as the “King of Israel,” placing himself alongside the “great” founders of the Zionist state.

Netanyahu was interested in managing negotiations that would buy him time, ease internal and external pressures, and present him as willing to reach a settlement. However, each time, he introduced new elements designed to derail and prolong the process, ensuring his continued involvement in the game.

Therefore, when Hamas agreed to the proposal on the table in May and early July 2024, which received support from American, Qatari, and Egyptian mediators, and was welcomed by a broad base of Israeli citizens and political parties, Netanyahu resorted to blatant stalling and introduced new conditions that blatantly contradicted previously agreed-upon terms.

New Developments:

Several new factors emerged over the past four weeks that encouraged Netanyahu to take even more hardline positions. First, his visit to the United States, where he delivered a speech to Congress and met with several American leaders, received overwhelming support, even to the point of “obsequiousness.” He returned reassured by the strength of the Zionist lobby and its influence on American policymakers, whether Republican or Democrat. Second, his intelligence services succeeded in assassinating Hezbollah’s military commander Fuad Shukr (Hajj Mohsen) and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, which brought him to an unprecedented state of euphoria and pride. Third, this success reflected domestically in Israel, where his popularity, for the first time since October 7, 2023, surpassed that of Gantz, making him the leading candidate for prime minister once again. His Likud party also topped the polls, while the momentum of the Israeli opposition dwindled, leaving Netanyahu in a relatively comfortable position compared to previous months.

New Conditions:

Reports indicate that Netanyahu refuses to end the war, withdraw entirely from Gaza, and insists on remaining in the Netzarim axis to maintain control over northern Gaza. He also wants to stay in the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi corridor, ensuring complete dominance over all Gaza crossings, including the one linking Gaza with Egypt. Additionally, Netanyahu places restrictions and conditions on the return of displaced persons to northern Gaza, seeks to increase the number of living Israeli captives in the exchange process, and wants to exert greater control over who among the Palestinian prisoners will be released, with the aim of deporting them outside Gaza. In short, Netanyahu is not interested in ending the war but rather in negotiating a prisoner exchange on his terms, stripping the resistance of one of its key bargaining chips, and positioning himself favorably to continue his war and massacres.

The Resistance’s Stance:

Hamas and other resistance factions that had previously agreed to the draft agreements accused the Israeli side of stalling, reneging on its commitments, imposing new conditions, and urged the Americans, who had overseen the negotiations and previous agreements, to enforce the terms and not to accommodate Israeli delays or provide them cover to create further obstacles and engage in extortion.

The resistance reaffirmed the four key points governing any agreement: ending the war, complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, achieving an honorable prisoner exchange, and lifting the siege and rebuilding Gaza to meet all its needs.

The United States: Partner and Agent:

The United States, the main partner of Israel in its aggression on Gaza, providing military and financial support and international cover, also plays the role of an agent that markets and justifies Israeli positions and crimes. Even when the Israeli side “embarrasses” it with arrogance, unpredictability, and mood swings, the U.S. adapts to align with Israeli demands, as it did when Netanyahu introduced his new conditions. Instead of blaming Israel, the U.S. began pressuring Hamas and the resistance to make further concessions in favor of Israel.

Current Situation:

It was no surprise that the Doha negotiations failed on August 15, 2024, due to Israeli demands. American talk of progress in the negotiations was an attempt to justify holding talks that were doomed from the start, a futile effort to cover up Israeli behavior, and a time-buying measure to delay the possible retaliation from Iran, Hezbollah, and the resistance axis following the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr.

In the coming days, Netanyahu will attempt to:

1. 1. Prolong the war until the U.S. elections, trying to achieve the best possible military outcomes.

1. 1. Establish a new reality in Gaza, where Israel controls the Netzarim axis and the Philadelphi corridor (Rafah crossing).

1. 1. Use the time to extract as many Israeli captives from the resistance as possible.

1. 1. Target Hamas and resistance leaders, attempting to assassinate as many as possible.

1. 1. Impose his vision for Gaza’s future.

Meanwhile, the resistance will reject Israeli dictates, continue its operations, and persist in exhausting Israeli forces and resources until Netanyahu and all Israelis realize that their objectives are unattainable, that time is not on their side, and that the costs of continuing the war far outweigh the benefits of halting it and meeting the resistance’s demands.

What Next?

Netanyahu and his allies’ “euphoria” will soon end, as Israel’s predicament in Gaza will become increasingly apparent, with signs of failure growing alongside the escalating fatigue of the Israeli army. Israeli leaders who previously recommended reaching a deal with Hamas at any cost will reaffirm this stance. Israel’s internal crisis will resurface as the economic situation deteriorates. The state will become too weak to enter into a regional war and will face difficult and complex decisions if Iran and its allies deliver severe blows.

Netanyahu will soon find himself facing one of two choices: either continue in denial, arrogance, and delusion, ignoring reality and prolonging the war, thereby exacerbating the bleeding and exhaustion of his army and state—something that many Israeli leaders, thinkers, and experts have warned leads to the collapse of the state—or acknowledge reality, climb down from the tree, and meet the resistance’s demands, which would mean a victory for the resistance and the end of Netanyahu’s political career.