Will the Confrontations in the West Bank Escalate?

As the ongoing war of extermination in Gaza shows no signs of abating, and the Israeli public remains deeply divided over accusations against Netanyahu’s government for sacrificing the lives of Israeli captives held by Hamas in Gaza, prioritizing the Philadelphia Corridor in southern Gaza over their cause, the West Bank has become the center of a bloody conflict that could escalate into a broader battle. Extremist Zionist factions within the Israeli government are leading attacks on Palestinian villages and towns, alongside the Israeli army’s incursions into cities and refugee camps in the northern West Bank, clashing with several armed Palestinian groups.

Israeli media reports indicate that the Israeli army aims to destroy “thousands of weapons and eliminate the leaders of local cells based in refugee camps to thwart attacks against it.” Simultaneously, representatives of the far-right, led by Ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who rely on “rogue militias” of armed settlers, are attempting to create new facts on the ground that could “undermine the war against the armed cells.”

“Exceptional and Dangerous Escalation” in West Bank Resistance

Haaretz writer Zvi Barel suggests that recent operations in the West Bank, particularly in its southern regions, have led to an Israeli assessment that there is an exceptional and dangerous escalation in the tactics employed by armed groups in the West Bank. However, he notes that it is too early to determine whether these operations represent a new Palestinian strategy aimed at sparking an intifada similar to the one that erupted in the early 2000s.

Barel believes that most of the Palestinian public in the West Bank, despite the immense economic hardships they have faced since the start of the Gaza war, the loss of about 100,000 jobs in Israel, and the lack of freedom of movement due to military restrictions, have not yet reached the point of “mass resistance.” Two Fatah sources told Haaretz that “restraint in the West Bank stems from fear that the West Bank might face the same fate as Gaza.”

These sources justify their views by stating: First, “the destruction that Israel has wrought in Gaza is vast, killing over 40,000 Palestinians, and killing everything that moves, which frightens and deters people.” Second, they claim that “some public sentiment in the West Bank sees the war in Gaza as a conflict between Hamas and Israel, not a Palestinian struggle that requires mass mobilization for violent confrontation with Israel. They believe that the war in Gaza serves Iranian interests rather than helping to liberate the Palestinian people from occupation.” Third, the sources argue that internal divisions among the leaders and members of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and within Fatah, especially between Mahmoud Abbas’s supporters and his rivals, as well as between those advocating for reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah and those opposing it or urging to wait until the war ends, have led to a situation where there are no strategic discussions on either diplomatic or operational issues.

Internal Divisions within the PLO

On August 15, Mahmoud Abbas, who visited Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, dramatically announced in the Turkish parliament that “in the absence of any other solutions, I have decided to go to Gaza with other Palestinian leadership members. I will do everything in my power to stand together to stop this brutal attack, even if it costs us our lives. Our lives are not more valuable than the life of a small child in Gaza or any Palestinian child.”

However, Israeli opposition does not prevent Abbas from promoting this step, which, if implemented, could mark the beginning of a “day-after” plan that includes involving the Palestinian Authority in managing the Rafah border crossing. This is precisely what Netanyahu does not want, as he argues, under the pretext that it is a “terrorist authority” and a “twin of Hamas,” to undermine any solution that would force “Israel” to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

But it is not only the Israeli opposition that poses an obstacle to Abbas. Zvi Barel points out that there are many opponents within the PLO to this step, whether due to the “idea that this would be a stab in the back of Hamas while it fights Israel for its survival,” or the idea of abandoning a principle established by Abbas himself, which stipulates that the operation of the Rafah crossing and other crossings in Gaza should be part of a comprehensive diplomatic solution,” as a Fatah source told Haaretz.

“Conditions Are Ripe for a New Violent Palestinian Intifada”

In the absence of an agreement among Palestinian leaders on how to manage the “struggle against Israel,” and given Abbas’s declared opposition to armed resistance, militants on the ground in the West Bank are operating independently, coordinating with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

However, if the war in Gaza fails to push the West Bank leaders or the PLO to join the “unification of fronts” between the West Bank and Gaza, the current concern is that the Jewish terrorist gangs attacking Palestinian cities and villages, backed by Ben Gvir and his allies to take control of the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, will create the conditions necessary for a new violent Palestinian intifada, according to the Israeli writer. If this happens, controlling the Philadelphia Corridor and the Rafah border crossing will not benefit “Israel,” either in terms of security or diplomacy.

Barel begins his article in Haaretz by citing a sharply critical piece written by Palestinian scholar Khaled Hroub in Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on Saturday, where Hroub asserted that “the courage now displayed by the young men operating in armed cells in the West Bank does not change the larger picture.” He added, “They are making great sacrifices, but they are giving the enemy many justifications to act freely and with maximum force to commit its crimes.” He pointed out that “what we lack is strategy.” And “under conditions where the balance of power is decisively against us, mere survival is resistance.”

“Unification of Fronts” between the West Bank and Gaza

However, Hroub’s stance against armed conflict might lose its relevance in the face of systematic violent attacks by settlers in the West Bank, Ben Gvir’s call for establishing a Jewish synagogue within the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, and above all, the army’s indifference towards these actions, and the support these extremist factions receive from the Prime Minister, as Zvi Barel states.

In the end, the change in the status quo at Al-Aqsa Mosque, the violent assaults against Palestinians by settler militias, and the catastrophic economic situation in the West Bank are the explosive elements included in every warning issued by the Israeli security agency (Shin Bet) to the Prime Minister. These elements are what could lead to the creation of a “unification of fronts” between the West Bank and Gaza, which now seems closer than ever before.