Has the Specter of Full-Scale War Faded on the Northern Front?

Since August 26, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah on Lebanon’s southern border have noticeably decreased. This came after Hezbollah responded to the assassination of its military commander, Fouad Shukr, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs on July 30. Following Hezbollah’s retaliation, both sides seemed to be avoiding escalating tensions towards a full-scale war.

On August 25, hostilities peaked as the two sides engaged in heavy exchanges of fire, marking the most intense period in nearly ten months. This raised concerns about the potential for a full-blown war. Hezbollah claimed it had launched hundreds of drones and rockets towards Israel in retaliation for Shukr’s killing, with its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, stating that the attack targeted the Glilot base near Tel Aviv.

In response, the Israeli military conducted what it described as a “preemptive strike” on Lebanon after detecting Hezbollah’s preparations to launch missiles at Israeli cities. Analysts suggest Hezbollah is not seeking to expand the conflict, reverting instead to the established rules of engagement that prevailed prior to the calculated response to Shukr’s assassination.

Israel and Hezbollah: Return to the Rules of Engagement

Political analyst Mounir Al-Rabee explains that “for the past two weeks, Hezbollah has reverted to the rules of engagement that have governed the Lebanese front since the start of the Gaza war on October 7.” He further elaborated that Hezbollah’s measured response to Shukr’s killing indicates it does not wish to widen the war.

Rabee also noted that while the intensity of the confrontations fluctuates, Hezbollah prefers to keep the Lebanese front as a supporting line for Gaza. He warned, however, that unpredictability looms over Israeli actions despite ongoing US efforts to broker a diplomatic solution. These efforts remain tenuous, especially given the internal pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the frequent calls to focus on the northern front.

According to Rabee, there are two possible outcomes: either the current war of attrition continues for an extended period, potentially leading to an escalation if a mistake is made, or a diplomatic agreement is reached.

Expanding and Contracting Rules of Engagement Based on Field Dynamics

Political analyst Ghassan Rifi pointed out that Hezbollah delayed its response to Shukr’s assassination due to ongoing negotiations to end the war in Gaza. Once those talks failed to yield results, Hezbollah retaliated strategically, targeting the Glilot base near Tel Aviv.

Rifi added that after Hezbollah’s response, both sides returned to the established rules of engagement, which fluctuate based on battlefield dynamics. He emphasized that Hezbollah sent a stern warning to Israel that any further attacks on Beirut or its southern suburbs would be met with strikes on Tel Aviv.

An Awaited Iranian Response

Retired Lebanese Army Brigadier General Hisham Jaber noted that the current lull in military operations is not a de-escalation but rather a natural pause. He reiterated Hezbollah’s stance that if Israel escalates the conflict within Lebanon, Hezbollah will respond in kind. Jaber warned that the situation would continue in this manner for an undetermined period.

He also stressed that the confrontation is not over with Hezbollah’s retaliation, as an Iranian response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is still expected.

Jaber suggested that the southern Lebanese front will remain in flux until Iran’s anticipated response, leaving room for the conflict to reignite.

Israel’s Failure to Secure the Northern Front

Political analyst Mohammed Hamiyah believes that Hezbollah’s actions effectively restored the previous rules of engagement and thwarted Israeli attempts to impose new ones. He argues that Israel’s efforts to establish a deterrence strategy on the northern front have failed.

Hamiyah noted that Israel has been unable to provide the security necessary for settlers to return to their northern homes and has failed to force Hezbollah to cease its support for Gaza.

He also emphasized that the Israeli side now favors a diplomatic solution over a full-scale confrontation. Many Western diplomats visiting Lebanon have been pushing the Lebanese government towards a border settlement, but Hezbollah insists that the cessation of hostilities in southern Lebanon is contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza.

Hamiyah concluded by saying that while the situation may fluctuate, the established rules of engagement will likely hold until the upcoming US elections, the results of which could have a significant impact on the Lebanese-Israeli border.

Since October 8, 2023, Lebanese and Palestinian factions, primarily Hezbollah, have been exchanging fire with the Israeli army across the “Blue Line” border. These clashes have resulted in hundreds of casualties, mostly on the Lebanese side.

The factions demand an end to Israel’s US-backed war on Gaza, which since October 7 has claimed the lives of over 135,000 Palestinians, including women and children. The war has left more than 10,000 missing amidst widespread devastation and a deadly famine.