Has Hezbollah re-established deterrence with Israel?

The intensity of the cross-border skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel has subsided following the significant exchange of attacks on August 25.

However, after a turbulent week in Israel, with news emerging about the execution of six Israeli captives sparking mass protests against Netanyahu’s government, analysts are now questioning whether the prime minister will escalate on other fronts to divert attention.

“We’re going to impose a heavy cost on Hamas; I won’t reveal what that will be or what actions we’ll take. There will be an element of surprise,” said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a media briefing on Monday.

Beyond seeking a permanent Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor near Egypt’s Sinai, which would effectively stall Gaza ceasefire negotiations, Netanyahu has not given clear signals about his next steps.

What also remains uncertain is whether Hezbollah has showcased enough deterrent capability to prevent Israel from using it as a distraction.

The Lead-up

Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel escalated on October 8, just a day after Israel launched what it described as a retaliatory war on Gaza, following a Hamas-led attack that resulted in 1,139 deaths and approximately 240 captives.

Tensions escalated rapidly.

On July 31, Israeli forces targeted a building in southern Beirut, killing five people – including two children, two women, and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.

Israel claimed Shukr was responsible for an attack in the occupied Golan Heights that resulted in the deaths of 12 children. Hezbollah, however, denied any involvement.

Shukr’s assassination was a major blow, but it wasn’t Israel’s first such operation. Earlier, on January 8, Israel killed Wissam al-Tawil, a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, in Majdal Selem, only six days after killing Saleh al-Arouri, a high-ranking Hamas Qassam Brigades official, in southern Beirut.

Following Shukr’s death, Hezbollah vowed to avenge him, and cross-border hostilities intensified.

On the morning of August 25, Israel launched what it termed a preemptive strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, deploying 100 jets to hit numerous launch sites.

At least 15 towns in Lebanon were struck, marking Israel’s largest assault on Hezbollah since the fighting began on October 8.

In retaliation, Hezbollah launched an attack, with Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah stating that 340 rockets were fired at Israeli military and intelligence locations, including the Glilot base, located less than 1.6 km from Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah declared that the “first phase” of their retaliation had been completed.

Netanyahu, however, dismissed Nasrallah’s statement, denying that the Glilot base was hit.

Deterrence Reaffirmed?

Hezbollah has consistently linked its conflict with Israel to the Gaza situation, promising to halt its operations once a ceasefire is in place.

Some observers, however, view the Hezbollah-Israel conflict as distinct, with Western diplomats reportedly working behind the scenes to prevent a broader war in Lebanon.

According to analysts, Hezbollah’s latest attack was intended to re-establish deterrence and dissuade Israel from targeting high-profile leaders, especially in cities like Beirut.

“Hezbollah has indeed reaffirmed a significant level of deterrence with its massive retaliation following Fuad Shukr’s assassination,” political analyst Imad Salamey of the Lebanese American University told Al Jazeera.

“This undermines Israel’s claims that Hezbollah’s capabilities have been significantly weakened and demonstrates that the group retains firm command despite Israel’s extensive and costly military campaign over the past 10 months,” Salamey added.

Despite Sunday’s hostilities, analysts believe a certain degree of stability has returned to a conflict that had previously threatened to spiral out of control and involve regional players.

Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah had communicated their unwillingness to further escalate the situation. Analysts also suggested that tensions have eased, at least for now.

“For Lebanon, Hezbollah’s actions have essentially restored the status quo that existed before Fuad Shukr’s assassination,” said political analyst Qassem Kassir, who is considered close to Hezbollah, in an interview with Al Jazeera.

“I see this as mostly a U.S.-driven effort to de-escalate and turn the page,” noted Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

“While Israel may continue targeting specific sites in Lebanon, it’s unlikely they’ll go after a figure as prominent as Fuad Shukr anytime soon.”

A Temporary Calm

Although the risk of a broader war in Lebanon seemed to diminish after August 25, the internal unrest in Israel raises questions about whether the conflict might reignite.

Since October 8, Israeli operations have resulted in more than 560 deaths in Lebanon, with over 130 being civilians. On the Israeli side, 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have died in attacks originating from Lebanon.

Thousands of people on both sides of the border have been displaced, with Israel reportedly attempting to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon by making the land uninhabitable.

While fatigue over the ongoing conflict has set in for many, its resolution remains elusive.

“Any miscalculation by Israel could spark a prolonged military retaliation, which is already proving costly for Israel both militarily and politically,” Salamey commented.

“Hezbollah’s demonstrated resilience and readiness mean that Israel must now carefully weigh the risks before engaging in further escalations.”

For now, a fragile calm prevails, but the possibility of escalation still looms.

“We may be in a period of calm, but it’s far from guaranteed,” Kassir concluded.