Mutual Accusations and Potential Escalation: What are the Limits of the Dispute Between Egypt and Israel?

Despite years of economic, commercial, security, and intelligence cooperation between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and successive Israeli governments, including the current one under Benjamin Netanyahu, recent events have stirred tensions that have clouded the friendly relations since mid-2013.

Israel’s insistence on occupying the “Salah al-Din” (Philadelphi) Corridor between Egypt and Gaza, and its military presence there since May, in violation of the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli Peace Accords and the 2005 crossing agreement, has led to a noticeable strain in relations. Israeli media, analysts, and officials confirm that this has resulted in “Cairo’s anger.”

Since October 7, Israeli forces have continued their brutal extermination campaign against 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza, leading to over 135,000 casualties, most of whom are women and children. While Egypt and Qatar have participated in negotiations to end the war, Israel has delayed the process by “making excuses,” according to Egypt’s Foreign Ministry.

“Ambassador Crisis”

Amid the strained negotiations and Israel’s insistence on occupying the Salah al-Din Corridor, a new issue has surfaced. Israeli media have accused Egypt of deliberately stalling the arrival of Israel’s new ambassador to Cairo.

The Hebrew-language i24 News reported that the Israeli ambassador position has been vacant for two weeks following the departure of former ambassador Amira Oron, and that her successor, Uri Rothman, has yet to receive Egypt’s approval and remains in Tel Aviv. They assert that the delay is a “deliberate stalling by Cairo.”

Reports also indicate that Egyptian security and diplomatic officials are discussing escalation scenarios, ranging from recalling Ambassador Khaled Azmi from Tel Aviv to appealing to the UN Security Council to demand Israel withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor.

“Negotiation Crisis”

In another accusation, Israel’s Channel 13 reported on Monday that Egypt declined to host a new round of Gaza negotiations between Tel Aviv and Hamas, due to its “anger” over Netanyahu’s remarks about the Salah al-Din Corridor, as reported by Anadolu Agency.

The channel stated that “the Egyptians are extremely angry over Netanyahu’s statements about the Philadelphi Corridor, and this was evident in their behavior during the press conference he held.”

Last Wednesday, Netanyahu declared in occupied Jerusalem that Israeli forces would not withdraw from the Rafah crossing or the Salah al-Din Corridor, which he referred to as Hamas’ “oxygen pipeline” for smuggling weapons from Egypt.

An unnamed senior Israeli official told the channel that “the Egyptians felt that Netanyahu treated them like a banana republic, and the messages they conveyed to Israel were harsh.”

“Escalation in Egyptian Discourse”

In response, Egypt’s rhetoric escalated during a meeting in Cairo on Monday between Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Atty and his Danish counterpart Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Abdel Atty said, “Israel is spreading lies to distract from reaching a prisoner exchange deal and implementing a ceasefire in Gaza,” emphasizing that “the claim of weapons being smuggled into Gaza from Egypt is pure fabrication.”

The minister also stated that “whenever an agreement is close, Israel hastily fabricates excuses to obstruct it,” adding, “We are facing provocative policies aimed only at escalating the situation.”

Last week, Cairo rejected Netanyahu’s claims of weapons being smuggled from Egypt to Gaza through tunnels under the Philadelphi Corridor, viewing them as an attempt to derail the Egyptian-Qatari-American mediation efforts to secure a ceasefire to the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza, now in its 11th month.

“Khalifa’s Visit”

Amid the escalating and unprecedented tension in Egyptian-Israeli relations, Egypt’s new Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Ahmed Khalifa, visited the Rafah crossing and the Salah al-Din Corridor on September 5, showcasing Egyptian forces, armored vehicles, and weapons stationed on the Gaza border.

Some saw this as a message of Egyptian anger directed at Tel Aviv, with Israeli media like Maariv expressing alarm over the presence of Egyptian tanks near the border.

The newspaper described Khalifa’s visit as “a display of force and an assertion of Egypt’s control over the area,” coinciding with what it called “harsh rhetoric against Israel and Netanyahu in recent days.”

“Tension on the Border”

Meanwhile, gunfire incidents along the Egypt-Gaza border have been steadily increasing, especially with Israeli forces present on the eastern side of the border.

On Monday evening, Israel’s Broadcasting Authority reported that the Israeli military thwarted a drug smuggling attempt on the Egyptian border, which involved gunfire and an attempted vehicular assault on Israeli soldiers. Israeli media claimed that several Israeli soldiers were injured after being struck by a vehicle on the Egyptian border.

In Egypt’s South Sinai city of Taba, an altercation broke out at a hotel between Egyptians and Israelis last Friday, resulting in four injured Egyptian workers and three Israeli tourists.

According to Israeli media, one of their citizens was stabbed in Taba, but an Egyptian official denied this, saying the fight occurred over unpaid services used by the tourists.

Arabi21 reported that Egyptian conscripts confirmed the deaths of two Egyptian soldiers, Abdel Hamid Atef Galal Bayoumi and Mohamed Magdy Barqawi, by Israeli fire near the Palestinian-Egyptian border. Their funerals, which took place last Sunday, were broadcast on social media.

With Israel accusing Egypt of smuggling weapons to Palestinian resistance and stalling the appointment of a new Israeli ambassador to Cairo, as well as rejecting a new round of negotiations, alongside Egypt’s increasingly tough rhetoric, many questions arise.

Firstly, how far will the Egyptian-Israeli dispute go? Will it reach the point of Egypt withdrawing its ambassador and refusing to accept a new Israeli envoy?

Secondly, will Egypt sacrifice its economic interests with Tel Aviv, particularly in the gas sector? And will Israel overlook its commercial interests with Egypt, especially given the Houthi militia’s monitoring of Israeli-bound cargo ships in Yemen’s south?

“No Escalation for These Reasons”

Egyptian political researcher Yahya Saad explains, “There are several reasons why breaking or freezing diplomatic ties between Egypt and Israel, let alone canceling the peace agreement, remains unlikely under the current regime.”

He notes that the first reason is “the Egyptian regime’s lack of political will to take firm stances against Israel, given that the regime views its primary security concern as opposition to the Islamist movement, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood.”

The second reason, he says, is Egypt’s reluctance to upset the United States, which remains a strategic ally and provides annual aid since the signing of the 1978 Camp David Accords with Israel.

The third reason is economic considerations, particularly gas agreements with Israel and other trade agreements, such as the Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZ), alongside close business ties between Egyptian businessmen and Israeli companies.