Why is the UAE Waiting for Trump’s Return to the White House? We Reveal the “Key Secret”

The United Arab Emirates, like the rest of the world, is closely watching the results of the U.S. presidential elections, which will significantly impact international relations. However, the key reason behind the UAE’s anticipation of Donald Trump’s potential return to power lies in one word: “F-35.”

Recently

Reuters has revealed through exclusive sources that the UAE seeks to revive a multi-billion-dollar deal to purchase U.S. F-35 fighter jets. The only obstacle standing in the way is the possibility that Donald Trump might lose the upcoming presidential elections.

Why does it matter?

The significance lies in the fact that Trump is open to selling advanced fighter jets to the UAE—jets that, in the region, only Israel currently possesses. However, the Biden administration froze certain arms sales agreements for review after taking office.

What have they said?

• • According to Reuters’ sources, the UAE will urge Trump, if elected, to honor the 2021 agreement, which followed the normalization deals with Israel brokered by Trump.

• • After the Biden administration’s decision, the UAE stated that it might cancel the deal due to “burdensome” conditions, in addition to sovereign operational restrictions and technical requirements.

• • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned that Washington is keen to proceed with the sale but wants to ensure Israel maintains its “military superiority.”

• • Following the suspension of the agreement, the UAE’s ambassador to Washington noted that acquiring the F-35s would allow the UAE to maintain a strong deterrent against “aggression” and enhance U.S.-UAE military cooperation.

• • Democratic Senator Chris Murphy commented that arms sales to the UAE and Saudi Arabia have fueled a dangerous arms race in the Middle East. He added that U.S. weapons have been used to kill children in schools and have ended up in the hands of extremist militias.

Did Israel oppose the deal?

On August 18, 2020, just days after the normalization agreement and months before the deal, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Tel Aviv would oppose any U.S. sale of F-35 jets to the UAE.

However, in October 2020, Netanyahu reversed his position, issuing a joint statement with then-Defense Minister Benny Gantz, stating that Israel would not oppose the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE.

Where is the real obstacle?

Israel is not the only obstacle preventing the UAE from acquiring advanced American fighter jets. China also plays a role. In 2019, two years before the F-35 deal, Beijing and Abu Dhabi signed an agreement allowing the UAE to use Huawei’s 5G telecommunications technology.

Washington is concerned that the presence of a Chinese 5G network, with hundreds of cellular towers in the UAE, near airbases, could help China track data from the jets and spy on them.

What to expect?

• • It seems unlikely that the UAE will cancel the 5G network agreement with China just to secure the fighter jets, as it is probably not the only publicly stated condition.

• • The UAE will likely attempt to revive the deal if Trump returns to the White House, based on his signing of the agreement, which the Biden administration does not consider binding.

• • However, if Kamala Harris reaches the White House, the UAE might lose interest in pushing forward the stalled talks, especially with the deal to purchase advanced French Rafale jets, making the UAE the first country outside France to own this model.