Neither Harris nor Trump: Poll Shows U.S. Muslims Backing a Third Candidate

A recent poll revealed that Arab and Muslim American voters, outraged by U.S. support for Israel’s occupation and war on Gaza, are shifting their support from Kamala Harris to independent candidate Jill Stein in numbers that could cost the Democratic candidate key battleground states in the upcoming presidential election on November 5th.

The poll, conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) and released this month, showed that 40% of Muslim voters in Michigan, home to a large Arab-American community, supported Stein, who is associated with the Green Party. Meanwhile, Republican candidate Donald Trump garnered 18%, while Harris, the current Vice President under Joe Biden, came in last with 12%.

Harris Losing Muslim Votes Over Gaza War

Stein is also outpacing Harris among Muslim voters in Arizona and Wisconsin, two swing states with significant Muslim populations, where Biden narrowly defeated Trump in the 2020 election.

The CAIR poll, which surveyed 1,155 Muslim voters across the United States, found that Harris was the top choice among Muslim voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Trump led in Nevada with 27%, just one point ahead of Harris. All these states are swing states that were decided by slim margins in the last election.

Biden won the Muslim vote in 2020, securing over 80% in some polls. However, Muslim support for Democrats has sharply declined since the U.S.-backed Israeli war on Gaza began.

According to the 2020 U.S. Census, about 3.5 million Americans identify as being of Middle Eastern descent. While they make up only around 1% of the total U.S. population of 335 million, their votes could prove crucial in a tight race.

Harris Campaign Rejects Calls to End Support for Israel’s Occupation

On Tuesday, Harris called for an end to the war between Israel and Gaza and for the return of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. She also stated that Israel should not reoccupy the Palestinian territory and expressed support for a two-state solution.

However, Arab and Muslim community leaders claim that Harris’ campaign officials, during closed meetings in Michigan and other locations, dismissed calls to halt or reduce U.S. arms shipments to Israel.

“We are part of the fabric of this country, but our concerns are ignored,” said Fay Namir, founder of the American Chamber of Commerce in the Middle East and North Africa, based in Michigan, which aims to promote U.S. trade with the region.

Stein Leads Strong Gaza Support Campaign

Stein is running a strong campaign in support of Gaza, while Trump’s representatives are meeting with Muslim groups, promising to bring about peace faster than Harris can.

Harris’ campaign declined to comment on the shift in support among Arab and Muslim voters. Officials tasked with Muslim outreach were unavailable for interviews.

In 2016, Stein received just over 1% of the vote, but some Democrats blamed her and the Green Party for siphoning votes from Democrat Hillary Clinton. Polling experts give Stein little chance of winning in 2024.

However, her support for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, an immediate ban on U.S. arms sales to Israel, and student-led movements pressuring universities to divest from weapons have garnered attention in pro-Palestinian circles. Her running mate, Butch Weir, a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, is Muslim.

Stein spoke this month at the Arab Con conference in Dearborn, Michigan, an annual gathering of Arab Americans, and appeared on the cover of The Arab American News under the headline “The 2024 Choice.” In a recent interview on New York’s Breakfast Club radio show, she stated, “Every vote our campaign receives is a vote against genocide.”

Trump Campaign Eyes Arab Vote

Richard Grenell, former acting director of national intelligence under Trump, said Trump’s campaign has organized dozens of in-person and online events for Arab-American and Muslim voters in Michigan and Arizona.

“Arab American leaders in Detroit know this is their chance to send a strong message to the Democratic Party that they should not be underestimated,” Grenell said. Trump has promised to broker more Arab-Israeli peace deals.

Trump’s efforts, combined with Stein’s popularity, could pose a serious threat to Harris’ chances. The Green Party has ballot access in most states, including key swing states that could decide the election, except for Georgia and Nevada, where the party is seeking to secure votes.

Biden narrowly defeated Trump in 2020 by just a few thousand votes in some states, thanks in part to the support of Arab and Muslim voters in states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In Michigan, Biden won by 154,000 votes in 2020, but Trump beat Hillary Clinton by fewer than 11,000 votes in the state in 2016.

The state has a diverse electorate, including over 200,000 registered Muslim voters and 300,000 voters of Middle Eastern and North African descent.

In Philadelphia, which has a large population of Black Muslims, activists have joined a national campaign titled “Dump Harris.” They helped organize protests during a recent debate between her and Trump.

Rabbiul Chowdhury, a Philadelphia-based leader of CAIR, said, “We have options. If Trump promises to end the war and bring all hostages home, Harris is done.” Trump claimed the war would never have started had he been president, but did not specify how he would end it.

In Georgia, where Biden won by a margin of just 11,779 votes in 2020, activists are mobilizing 12,000 voters to pledge not to vote for Harris unless the Biden administration halts all arms shipments to Israel by October 10th, demands a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the West Bank, and supports U.S. legislation banning arms sales to countries involved in war crimes.

Thousands have already signed similar pledges in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Democratic U.S. Representative Dan Kildee of Michigan said he is concerned about the impact of the Gaza war on the November election.

“This isn’t just about Arab and Muslim Americans, but a broader group of younger voters and others who are angry,” he said. “There’s no turning back,” adding that Harris still has “the time and opportunity” to change course, but that time is running out.

Since October 7, 2023, Israel, with full U.S. backing, has waged a devastating war on Gaza, resulting in around 136,000 Palestinian casualties, most of whom are women and children. Over 10,000 are still missing, amidst widespread destruction and a deadly famine.

Defying international outrage, Israel continues the war, ignoring United Nations Security Council resolutions calling for an immediate halt, and the International Court of Justice orders to prevent genocide and improve Gaza’s catastrophic humanitarian situation.

On November 5th, 2024, Americans will vote to elect a new president to replace Joe Biden (81), who announced his withdrawal from the race on July 21st, endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris. The Democratic Party officially nominated her on August 23rd to face Donald Trump.