For Lebanon, war is coming, but not this second

Low-flying Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier twice over Beirut as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered his first speech since two days of attacks saw pagers and walkie-talkie radios explode across Lebanon.

The attacks – which killed Lebanese people, both Hezbollah members and civilians, including at least two children – came months after Nasrallah told supporters to stop using mobile phones because they might be compromised by Israel.

They also occurred amid escalating rhetoric from Israeli officials about intensifying operations on their northern front.

At least 37 people were killed and nearly 3,000 injured in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday.

More than 600 have died since October 8 when Hezbollah and Israel began trading attacks across the border. More than 100 were civilians.

Hezbollah’s response

Nasrallah appeared fatigued at the start of his speech on Thursday as he acknowledged the severity of the damage.

He called the attacks that tried to take out 5,000 people simultaneously a “major terrorist operation, an act of genocide and massacre”.

He admitted it was a “major blow … unprecedented in the history of the resistance”, but his energy grew as he gave his address, which included some of his signature provocations against Israel, specifically its prime minister.

“[Benjamin] Netanyahu, … we welcome an invasion. … We consider it an opportunity,” he said.

Referring to Israel’s goal stated on Thursday to make conditions near its border with Lebanon safe enough for residents who have fled Hezbollah attacks to return, Nasrallah said: “I promise you, you won’t be able to bring the settlers back to their homes.”

Strong words aside, Nasrallah didn’t indicate when or where a response would take place.

People close to Hezbollah promised a stunning response after such staggering attacks.

“The response will be gradual, escalating and painful,” Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst believed to be close to the group, told Al Jazeera.

That defiance cannot be reckless, other analysts said, if Hezbollah wants to avoid taking further losses in morale and personnel.

“The recent Israeli attack on Hezbollah exposed serious weaknesses and vulnerabilities,” Imad Salamey, a professor of political science at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.

“Hezbollah must now be extremely cautious in its response. … I believe Hezbollah’s retaliation will be delayed as it regroups with the goal of regaining the initiative and surprise while also awaiting a potential settlement in Gaza before acting.”

Hezbollah’s last major retaliation was in response to Israel assassinating the group’s commander Fuad Shukr. That response on August 25 saw more than 300 rockets fired and drones launched at Israeli bases.

“We can certainly say that Hezbollah’s reaction to the assassination of Fuad Shukr was not enough to re-establish deterrence,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at St Joseph’s University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.

“This so-called equilibrium of terror is no longer holding.”

“We seem to be living in a Netflix series or in a dystopia,” Bitar said.

“It’s unprecedented in the history of warfare in the Middle East, and we have seen an awful lot of tragic events.”

The strikes on Hezbollah’s communications also made some Lebanese people worry that an Israeli invasion would follow soon after.

Analysts told Al Jazeera that while they do not believe an invasion is imminent, that doesn’t mean Israel will not expand its aggressions against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

“There is definitely a risk of a wider war,” Bitar said.

“It will be extremely difficult for the Iranian axis and for Hezbollah to find the appropriate way of retaliating without giving Netanyahu the pretext he is desperately looking for to wage this all-out offensive.”

Former United States special forces officer Seth Krummrich, who is now at the Global Guardian risk management firm, said the pager strikes sent a “very clear message” to Hezbollah.

But he added this may not achieve Israel’s stated goal of returning displaced Israelis to its northern border because the recent events show the two sides only drifting further away from a negotiated agreement.

“The warring parties are moving farther apart every day, and senior voices in the region are saying behaviour has to change,” Krummrich said. “If Israel ploughs forward, … then this is going to be an extended, horrible conflict.”

Technological disparity

Analysts said if there was one thing made abundantly clear from the last few days, it was that the technological edge is overwhelmingly in Israel’s favour.

Nasrallah admitted as much in his speech.

“We acknowledge that the enemy has technological supremacy, especially as it is backed by the United States and the collective West,” he said.

Pro-Hezbollah Telegram groups reported the hacking of some Israeli websites, including the pages of some Israeli municipalities, on Wednesday.

But technological advantages alone cannot win a war, Krummrich said.

“The technological advantage is a mirage,” he said “If you have the will and the people and belief, you still have the ultimate advantage because war presents itself as constantly changing.”

“Both Israel and Hezbollah have that belief, and that is not usually the case in conflict,” Krummrich added. “And that concerns me greatly [because without a negotiated settlement] it’s only going to get worse and worse and worse.”