Four Years On: UAE-Israel Normalization Sparks Debate Over Palestinian Costs

These days mark the fourth anniversary of the UAE-Israel normalization, a move that boosted Abu Dhabi’s political standing in Washington and enhanced its image among supporters of the Israeli occupation, all at the cost of Palestinian lives.

The controversial normalization agreement was signed four years ago, and this year’s anniversary coincides with a devastating war by the Israeli occupation on Gaza, one of the worst atrocities since World War II.

On that day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, and Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani signed the Abraham Accords at the White House under the spotlight of then-US President Donald Trump.

The memory of that handshake remains a shame for many Emiratis and resonates globally as a symbol of betrayal. It is a constant reminder from fellow Arabs, condemning the Emirati leadership and criticizing the silence surrounding this agreement.

The Game of Strategy and Diplomacy

According to the opposition website (uae71), most of the Arab world has not recognized “Israel” as a state since the occupation in 1948. Even in those countries that have begun normalization, such as Egypt and Jordan, the chances of war are much greater than the continuation of cold peace.

For years, the UAE viewed the existence of “Israel” as an encroachment on Palestinian territory. Resistance against the occupation was a core part of Emirati identity and policy, and while politicians have shifted their stance, the Emirati people have remained committed to it.

Arab governments have historically regarded normalization with Israel as a disgrace, with the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict seen by many as a betrayal of Palestinian rights. The majority of Arab populations continue to reject normalization, and despite the UAE’s agreement, the sentiment among its people largely remains the same.

Since 2020, Abu Dhabi’s leadership has been navigating a political strategy aimed at balancing the economic and security advantages of normalization with Israel, while publicly criticizing certain Israeli actions to maintain credibility with the discontented Emirati and Arab populations amid the bloodshed and war crimes in Gaza.

The hoped-for economic and security benefits from normalization have largely not been realized for Abu Dhabi. Instead, Israel has capitalized on the agreement, while Abu Dhabi has moved away from the Palestinian cause. Meanwhile, the Arab world, stretching from the Atlantic to the Gulf, continues to support Palestine, along with most countries globally, apart from the key backers of the Israeli occupation—namely the United States, Britain, and select European nations.

The Politics of Defeat

Despite Emirati leaders claiming they convinced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt the annexation of the West Bank, no official commitment has been made, and Israel continues its de facto annexation by expanding settlements.

The UAE is paying a growing political price as Israeli war crimes in Gaza escalate. According to the International Crisis Group, the normalization deal has become a “dilemma for Emirati leaders,” leading to regional anger, harassment of Emirati citizens traveling in the Middle East, and domestic frustration over the government’s silence amid Gaza’s devastation while maintaining ties with Israel.

Increased tensions in the region further challenge Abu Dhabi’s promise that normalization would bring peace and security to the Middle East. Contrary to an Emirati official’s claim, the agreements have not “changed the narrative” or fostered Arab-Israeli coexistence.

On the contrary, the Israeli occupation has proven that coexistence is impossible and that the possibility of war with any Arab nation, whether individually or collectively, remains unchanged by these agreements.

Despite this, Abu Dhabi’s leadership has yet to signal any intention of withdrawing from the normalization deal and continues to turn a blind eye to even the simplest acts of protest against Israel’s crimes in Gaza, such as halting trade with “Tel Aviv,” as Bahrain has done.

While this may not significantly impact Israel’s economy or stop the atrocities against Palestinians, it could increase international pressure to end the war and help shield the UAE from some criticism.

Economy with Israel instead of the Arabs

Unlike Manama, Abu Dhabi’s refusal to suspend trade with Israel has led to a significant increase in trade. In 2023, trade between the UAE and Israel reached nearly $3 billion, a 17% rise from $2.5 billion the previous year.

Despite a brief slowdown in 2023, particularly in the last quarter due to Israeli aggression in Gaza, trade quickly rebounded by year’s end. In the first six months of 2024, bilateral trade hit $1.66 billion, marking a 7% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

This starkly contrasts Israel’s overall global trade, which dropped by 18%. Additionally, over one million Israelis will have visited the UAE by 2023, supported by 106 direct flights per week between the two nations.

In 2023, approximately 1,000 Israeli companies were operating in the UAE, with state-owned enterprises holding the majority of investments involving Israel. The largest transaction involved Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund acquiring a 22% stake in the Israeli Tamar gas field in the Mediterranean for $1 billion.

Abu Dhabi is also the leading investor in Israel’s technology sector, spearheading the Group of 42 (G42) under National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed, which chose Israel for its first international office.

While halting trade with Israel might not significantly impact Abu Dhabi’s economy, maintaining these ties could lead to substantial losses and hinder its strategic objectives, such as enhancing connectivity throughout the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, and establishing itself as a key trade and logistics hub between the two continents.

However, the UAE’s ongoing support for the Israeli occupation is damaging its reputation, which it values highly. Many Arabs and Muslims view trade with Abu Dhabi as an endorsement of Israel and a means of economic normalization with “Tel Aviv.”

This sentiment is supported by opinion polls; a survey conducted by the Arab Center in Washington, DC, in January revealed that 67% of respondents from 16 Arabic-speaking countries perceive the UAE’s stance on the Gaza conflict and the Palestinian issue as negative or very negative.

This criticism extends to Arab governments as well. Bloomberg notes that the Israeli occupation’s actions have eroded the UAE’s credibility in the broader Arab world, with Kuwait openly condemning Abu Dhabi’s normalization efforts, pointing out that no progress has been made in the peace process since the normalization agreement was signed. Similar discontent has been expressed by Algeria and even neighboring Oman.

There have also been increasing reports of harassment and insults against Emirati citizens when they travel to neighboring countries due to the country’s relationship with the occupation, according to the Crisis Group, which will also affect Emirati investments abroad.

In addition, the continued Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip is affecting the country’s economy, with attacks on shipping in the Red Sea – a regional trade route – being an example of the damaging impact.

“This war and the risk of escalation are affecting our communications agenda,” said an Emirati security expert, explaining that DP World’s half-year profits fell by almost 60% compared to the same period last year.

The rising tensions between the Israeli occupation and Iran are directly affecting the UAE’s economy, particularly after the Revolutionary Guards launched several attacks off the Emirates’ coast.

In April, they executed their first attack on “Israel,” and the cycle of threats between the two has escalated following the assassination of Commander Ismail Haniyeh last August. This situation poses various risks, including potential disruptions to shipping routes vital to the UAE’s non-oil economy. Emirati ports play a crucial role in this trade, and such instability may force ships to seek safer ports elsewhere.

Regrettably, despite the political, economic, and social losses we are experiencing—stemming from our relationship with the occupation that isolates us from our neighbors and our nation—Abu Dhabi lacks substantial influence over Israel to compel it to halt the war crimes, settlement expansion, and violence in the West Bank and Gaza.

Abu Dhabi appears to function as an agent of the Netanyahu government, which often complains about its “ideal employee” for offering only tepid criticism in an effort to bolster its image both locally and regionally.

After four years of normalization, it is evident that Abu Dhabi has emerged “empty-handed,” facing significant consequences for its reputation moving forward. However, the leadership in Abu Dhabi still has the opportunity to change course by ending normalization and ceasing support for the occupation.