Is Netanyahu Drowning in Lebanon? Southern Lebanon and Confrontation Scenarios

The Israeli occupation forces have escalated their airstrikes on southern Lebanon to an unprecedented level. These waves of bombardment, the first of their kind since the escalation began in October, targeted civilian sites from southern Lebanon to the Bekaa Valley, resulting in the martyrdom of 500 people and the injury of 1,600 others.

The stated goal of the occupation’s operation is to push Hezbollah away from the Litani River, which an Israeli official today claimed represents Israel’s northern border.

Signs of Invasion

For nearly a month now, the borders between occupied Palestine and Lebanon have witnessed significant military mobilization, the latest being the arrival of the 98th Division, which includes paratroopers and special forces, transferred from Gaza to the north.

Last week, the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated that he had “given orders to the army to prepare for a change in the situation in the north.” Meanwhile, the Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the army had begun shifting its weight toward the north.

On Monday evening, the Israeli occupation army announced the expansion of its military operations and bombed several locations in the Lebanese capital, Beirut.

The army claimed it had struck around 1,300 targets linked to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.

Furthermore, Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari did not rule out the possibility of a ground invasion into Lebanon, stating that the army would do whatever is necessary to return the northern residents to their homes.

In a press conference, Hagari accused Hezbollah of turning southern Lebanon into a combat zone, adding that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had issued orders to expand the state of emergency.

“We continue to focus on both offense and defense on all fronts. We have achieved significant targets, but the coming days will be filled with challenges,” Hagari said.

In a related statement, Israeli government spokesperson David Menser reiterated that the Litani River is Israel’s northern border.

Menser added during a press conference on Monday evening that “Israel has been struck by over 9,000 rockets from Hezbollah since October 7, with 325 Israelis injured and 48 killed. Large areas of the north have been burned, businesses, schools, and institutions have been disrupted, and no country in the world could endure such conditions.”

He continued by saying that “all settlements in the north have suffered significant damage from Hezbollah’s bombardment,” emphasizing that “relevant UN Security Council resolutions are clear in this regard: Hezbollah must withdraw from the Litani River, which we consider our northern border. While we always prefer peaceful settlements through negotiations, this approach has yielded no results over the past eleven months. The occupation will do everything possible, through diplomatic means, to secure the northern borders.”

Confrontation Scenarios

As the shelling intensifies and both sides edge closer to war, as US officials have warned, the likelihood of conflict seems imminent. However, it may take various forms, including an all-out war.

Political analyst Abbas Al-Asadi believes that Netanyahu is desperate to bring northern residents back home at any cost. The public pressure and mounting losses are becoming unbearable for his government, which is already being chased by protests. Therefore, Netanyahu is likely to avoid a full-scale war through intense surgical airstrikes—parts of which we have already seen, with nearly 500 Lebanese martyrs.

In an interview with Arabi21, Al-Asadi added that this aerial campaign is unlikely to achieve Netanyahu’s objectives. The vast area of Lebanon is not comparable to Gaza, where he failed despite its smaller size. Moreover, Hezbollah possesses significant military and tactical capabilities, with advanced weapons and strategies that have yet to be deployed, as seen with the recent attack on Haifa with the Fadi missile.

Hezbollah is skilled at choosing the timing and scale of its response, as evidenced by the escalating confrontation in the north since October 7, Al-Asadi explained.

Given the ongoing open front in Gaza with no clear end in sight, and with around 130 Israeli captives held by Hamas, it will be difficult for Israel to open a new ground front in Lebanon, which would likely spark an internal revolt within the occupation. Should the occupation proceed with an invasion, it is unlikely to be a straightforward land grab, Al-Asadi added.

Al-Asadi also pointed out that Hezbollah is not what it once was, especially with other fronts prepared to intervene if an all-out war erupts in Lebanon. This intervention won’t be limited to popular support as before. To the south, there is the Houthis in Yemen; to the east, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq; and not to forget the Islamic Republic of Iran and newer factions like the Al-Ashtar Brigades in Bahrain. This means the axis of resistance, led by Hezbollah, is much stronger than it was in previous years.

Impact of Preemptive Strikes

Hagari mentioned that the airstrikes on southern Lebanon were preemptive, aiming to cripple Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Many view this as part of the preparation for a ground invasion aimed at weakening the group as much as possible.

Al-Asadi commented on this by saying, “Some believe that the killing of senior Hezbollah commanders, such as Ibrahim Aqil and Fawad Shukr, represents a devastating blow to the group. However, the organizational structure and strategic planning of Hezbollah ensure that the group remains unaffected by such losses. The assassinations of figures more prominent than Aqil and Shukr, such as Imad Mughniyeh and Mustafa Badreddine, did not cause any structural breakdown within the group.”

Hezbollah has a comprehensive security map of the entire Israeli entity, as evidenced by the recent “Hudhud” drone strikes and other high-precision operations in recent days, Al-Asadi noted.

“The resistance axis is highly organized. Should Israel engage in a ground war, it will face a large number of Yemeni, Iraqi, Iranian, Afghan, and Bahraini fighters, all of whom will move through Syria to Lebanon. These fighters are highly experienced, having fought in prolonged conflicts over the past several years,” he said.

Al-Asadi emphasized that if the US were to intervene directly, its interests in the region, particularly in Iraq, would be severely impacted. This is the scenario of all-out war that everyone fears, as the resistance axis will not allow Israel to target Hezbollah alone, especially since the group no longer relies solely on Iran as it did during the Second Lebanon War. Every part of the axis now represents a self-sufficient military and logistical base.

The Litani River

This is not the first time Israel has threatened to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has made similar threats on multiple occasions, declaring that a military operation is necessary to secure the north.

The Litani River is located approximately 30 kilometers from Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Since its founding in 1948, Israel has sought to reach the river, seeing it as a natural boundary and a defensive water barrier with Lebanon, in line with its “secure borders” theory, which the occupation has never fully implemented on the ground.

Since 1969, Israel has focused its attention on the north, particularly the Litani, following the attacks by Palestinian resistance factions along the border.

On March 14, 1978, Israel invaded Lebanon in an operation named “Operation Litani” shortly after the “Kamal Adwan” operation carried out by Fatah fighters. However, the invasion did not last long, as the UN Security Council passed Resolution 425, calling for Israel’s immediate withdrawal and the establishment of international peacekeeping forces to replace Israeli troops.

The invasion resulted in the death of 18 Israeli soldiers and the injury of 113 others, while 300 Palestinian fighters were martyred. About 1,100 Lebanese civilians were also killed, with over 2,000 injured, and between 100,000 and 250,000 people were displaced from their homes.

Southern Lebanon remained a battleground against the Israeli occupation from 1982 until the early 2000s. Israel finally withdrew from southern Lebanon under pressure from the Lebanese resistance in May 2000 after an 18-year occupation.

In 2006, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1701, calling for a complete cessation of hostilities in Lebanon. The resolution demands that Hezbollah immediately cease all attacks and that Israel cease all offensive military operations and withdraw all its forces from southern Lebanon.

The resolution also calls on the Lebanese government to deploy its armed forces in the south in cooperation with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), simultaneously with Israel’s withdrawal to behind the Blue Line. It further calls on both Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution.

The resolution includes several other provisions, including the creation of a zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, free of any armed personnel, weapons, and equipment, except for those belonging to the Lebanese armed forces and UNIFIL.