How Lebanon’s Geography Presents a Major Challenge for Israel

Since Monday morning, the Israeli army has launched what has been described as the “most intense, extensive, and fierce” assault on Lebanon since the beginning of confrontations with Hezbollah on October 8, 2023, and since the July War of 2006. This escalation has resulted in 558 deaths, including 50 children and 94 women, 1,835 injured, and 27,000 displaced, according to the latest data from Lebanese authorities.

The Israeli military campaign on Lebanon is intensifying after a series of harsh operations targeting Hezbollah’s military leadership and personnel. These began with the bombing of beepers and wireless communication devices, followed by the assassination of top-ranking military officials.

This escalation is part of Israel’s attempt to deter Hezbollah from continuing its support for Gaza, after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a new phase of the war, with the Israeli military’s operations center moving northward.

In a statement released by the Israeli army on Wednesday, the northern command confirmed that Israel has entered a new phase of its military campaign, emphasizing the need for “maneuvering and movement.” However, the statement did not address the possibility of a ground incursion into southern Lebanon.

With the ongoing clashes and rising casualties in Lebanon, as well as diminishing prospects for diplomatic solutions, the possibility of a full-scale war looms, raising questions about how such a conflict would unfold and Hezbollah’s ability to confront the Israeli military if the situation escalates further.

These developments, which hint at the potential for a ground war, have led military analysts to focus on Lebanon’s complex geography, including its mountains, plains, and valleys, in addition to the tunnel network that Hezbollah has built over the years.

All of these factors suggest that any ground operation will not be a simple task for Israel, but rather could become an even more complicated quagmire than the experience faced in Gaza.

If Israel Advances on the Ground: What Are Hezbollah’s “Actual” Capabilities?

The American newspaper The Wall Street Journal has highlighted the likely scenario if Israeli forces decide to advance on the ground in Lebanon. It suggests that Israel’s aerial and intelligence superiority, evident in recent developments, may not be the decisive factor if the battle moves to land.

The newspaper states that if Israel advances on the ground, it will be fighting “on Hezbollah’s turf, where the technological and intelligence advantage will not be decisive… A ground war between the two sides, if it happens, will make for a different story.”

In recent days, the Israeli occupation army has launched a series of intense airstrikes targeting various sites in Lebanon, forcing Hezbollah into a defensive stance and highlighting Israel’s superiority in intelligence gathering and advanced military technology.

However, these airstrikes raise questions about whether Israel is laying the groundwork for a potential “scorched-earth” policy as part of preparations for a possible ground invasion of Lebanon’s border towns.

Several reports, which claim to have insider knowledge of Hezbollah’s operations, suggest that the organization has been preparing for war in recent months. These preparations include expanding the tunnel network in southern Lebanon, repositioning fighters and weapons, and increasing arms smuggling operations.

In this context, American and regional officials have stated that Iran has intensified its support for Hezbollah by sending small arms, rocket-propelled grenades, and long-range guided and unguided missiles.

According to a former Hezbollah military officer, “The south is like a beehive now,” referring to the recent scale of military preparations. He added, “Whatever the Iranians have, we have,” reflecting the increased Iranian support for the party.

Reports indicate that since the 2006 war, Hezbollah has received thousands of modern missiles and drones from Iran, and its fighters have gained significant combat experience from their participation in the Syrian war.

Why Hezbollah Is Considered Israel’s Toughest Foe?

According to British military expert Justin Crump, Hezbollah is now “Israel’s toughest adversary.”

Crump, who served for many years in the British army and founded SIBYLLINE, a military consulting firm in London, believes that Hezbollah currently possesses what it had in 2006, but in larger quantities.

In the July 2006 war, Hezbollah used Katyusha and Grad rockets extensively, along with anti-tank missiles, including Russian-made Kornet guided missiles.

Despite Israel’s clear air superiority, Hezbollah enjoys a significant strategic advantage due to its deep understanding of the rugged terrain, which complicates the mission for Israeli forces and plays in favor of Hezbollah in any potential ground confrontation.

According to a report by The Times and the views of numerous military experts, Hezbollah today is capable of better hiding its equipment and missile launch sites, meaning that Israeli airstrikes alone cannot halt the rocket attacks on Israel.

The report further suggests that Israel might struggle to achieve much through air superiority alone, especially when dealing with small, easily portable rocket launchers, in addition to the belief that much of Hezbollah’s infrastructure lies underground, complicating Israel’s ability to effectively target them from the air.

Lebanese Geography

Lebanon’s rugged and complex geography increases these challenges. Many military analysts believe that a ground invasion may become inevitable if the escalation continues. However, these analysts also view this option as “foolhardy.”

A ground war would lead to an asymmetric confrontation, where Hezbollah could employ unconventional strategies and tactics that give it a clear military advantage. This type of warfare includes the use of tunnels, ambushes, and terrain to its benefit, making it difficult for Israeli forces to achieve their objectives quickly or with minimal losses.

Israeli analyst Alon Mizrahi stated that “Southern Lebanon is probably the most strategically designed and armed theater for guerrilla warfare anywhere in the world.”

With its landscape filled with rolling hills and valleys, southern Lebanon presents a unique challenge for any invading army. The terrain benefits defenders, especially when those defenders have spent decades studying and fortifying the land.

As military expert Justin Crump explained, some Hezbollah positions enjoy clear views of what are called “kill zones” on the forward slopes, strategic points that allow Hezbollah forces to effectively target any advancing troops.

Additionally, there are other Hezbollah positions hidden within caves and tunnels, many of which have been designed to allow defenders to launch attacks on the flanks or rear of advancing forces, further complicating military progress on the ground.

Experts from the Alma Research and Education Center, which focuses on security challenges on Israel’s northern borders, estimate that Hezbollah’s tunnel network in southern Lebanon spans several hundred miles, enhancing the party’s ability to maneuver and hide its troops and military equipment away from Israeli aerial surveillance.

Guerrilla Warfare Tactics

Military analysts point out that if the conflict escalates, Hezbollah may resort to tactics similar to those used by Russia in Ukraine, where it could launch a barrage of rockets and drones aimed at overwhelming and disrupting Israeli air defenses.

Through this strategy, Hezbollah could target military bases, ports, or even Israel’s power grid, complicating the occupation’s defensive efforts.

As retired Israeli Brigadier General Assaf Orion remarked, “It won’t be a walk in the park. If a large-scale war breaks out, there will be no way we won’t shed blood.”

Although it is unlikely that Hezbollah will be able to deliver a decisive defeat to Israel in a conventional war, Israel faces a major strategic challenge. Hezbollah will not aim for a conventional military victory but will instead seek to embroil Israeli occupation forces in a prolonged war of attrition, similar to the resistance in Gaza over the past year.

In this context, retired Lebanese General Elias Farhat explained, “Israel is capable of causing destruction in Lebanon, and that is not up for debate. There is a gap in military balance. However, Hezbollah has proven its skill in using anti-tank missiles in 2006, and they are well-trained.”

Hezbollah possesses state-like capabilities and a large arsenal of weapons that allow it to operate as an effective guerrilla force.

Hezbollah’s forces primarily consist of light infantry units “trained and built for stealth, mobility, and independence,” according to the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

These forces rely on tactics that allow them to operate flexibly on the battlefield, where subordinates are allowed to make independent decisions based on the commander’s intent, a method similar to what the United States calls “mission command.”

In the 2006 war, Hezbollah employed an effective tactic of establishing a missile launch site, firing, then dispersing in less than 28 seconds.

This was made possible through the use of pre-installed equipment, underground shelters, and mountain bikes, minimizing their exposure to Israeli retaliation.

Researchers note that the party has since refined this tactic, enhancing its ability to quickly evade and complicating any Israeli attack targeting its positions.