Unknown Fate: What Are Israeli Estimates Regarding the Assassination of Nasrallah?

Reports are conflicting regarding the fate of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, following a series of intense airstrikes that hit the southern suburbs of Beirut on Friday, targeting a Hezbollah command center.

While some media outlets, including Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, reported that Nasrallah survived the attack and left moments before it occurred, Israeli media confirms, based on security sources, that the strikes were precise and that Nasrallah was indeed at the targeted location along with senior leaders.

Hebrew Channel 12 stated on Friday that official Israeli estimates suggest that the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was injured in the fierce airstrike carried out by Israeli fighter jets on the southern suburb of Beirut.

The channel reported via X that “estimates from the official level in Israel indicate that Nasrallah was hit in the attack on Hezbollah’s central headquarters in the suburbs.”

The channel further noted that “Israel believes Nasrallah was at the site of the attack, and anyone there would face difficulty escaping alive.”

Israeli journalist Yossi Melman relayed intelligence sources’ estimates that Nasrallah was in Hezbollah’s command center when he was targeted, and they are currently awaiting confirmation of his status—whether he is alive or injured.

In parallel, the Israeli state decided to raise the alert level in all its embassies worldwide following the strikes targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to the same channel.

On Friday, Israeli fighter jets, specifically F-35s, launched unprecedented and violent attacks on a target in the Haret Hreik area of southern Beirut, Hezbollah’s main stronghold.

Just minutes later, Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari released a video statement, asserting that the warplanes targeted Hezbollah’s central command headquarters.

Hebrew media, including Yedioth Ahronoth and Channel 12, indicated that the target of the strike was Nasrallah, and the army is currently investigating whether he was present at the targeted location. No comment has yet been made by Hezbollah on this matter.

The Lebanese Health Ministry stated in an initial report that the airstrike resulted in “two martyrs and 76 injuries.” Among the injured, “61 had minor injuries, and 15 required hospitalization.”

They noted that operations to clear the rubble from the airstrike “are still ongoing, with expectations of a rise in the casualty toll in the coming hours.”

Previously, Israeli forces assassinated Hamas’s deputy political bureau chief, Saleh Al-Arouri, in the southern suburbs of Beirut on January 2, and on July 30, they targeted prominent Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr.

On September 20, they assassinated a senior party leader, Ibrahim Aqeel, while another strike on September 23 targeted party leader Ali Korki, whom Hezbollah claimed survived the assassination attempt.

On September 24, Israeli forces assassinated prominent military leader Ibrahim Muhammad Qubaisi, followed by the killing of party leader Muhammad Hussein Sarour on September 26.

Since Monday, the Israeli army has been launching the most intense and extensive attacks on Lebanon since the conflict with Hezbollah began nearly a year ago, resulting in 726 martyrs, including children and women, and 2,173 injuries as of Friday morning.

The number of registered displaced persons in shelters approved by Lebanon’s National Operations Room reached 77,100 by Thursday evening, with 565 shelters available, including official schools, educational complexes, vocational institutes, and agricultural centers distributed across various governorates, according to the Lebanese government’s Disaster Risk Management Unit.