Israel: The Key Factor in the UAE-Serbia Alliance

Israel has remained a pivotal player in the alliance between the UAE and Serbia, as the two countries recently signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

On Saturday, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held talks with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade during a one-day working visit, which saw the signing of this significant economic agreement.

The agreement aims to pave the way for increased trade flows, investment, and bilateral cooperation between the private sectors of both nations, establishing a network of trade agreements that will expedite investment, enhance knowledge exchange, and create opportunities for joint ventures in high-growth sectors.

Notably, the free trade agreement between the UAE and Serbia is the first of its kind within the UAE’s free trade program with a non-WTO member country.

In September 2023, the two countries initiated negotiations for this Comprehensive Economic and Trade Partnership Agreement, aimed at boosting bilateral trade and investment flows.

In June of last year, Mohamed bin Zayed met with the Serbian President in Belgrade to discuss efforts to enhance security in the Balkans.

An international investigation has revealed that the UAE has been providing a military support bridge for Israel through Serbia, at a time when Tel Aviv continues its campaign of genocide in Gaza.

The investigation uncovered Abu Dhabi’s involvement in suspicious relationships with a Serbian arms manufacturing company that supplied Israel with weapons during the war on Gaza, which resulted in the massacre of Palestinian civilians.

A report published by the British website “Middle East Eye,” based on an investigation by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) and the Israeli newspaper Haaretz last month, revealed the exports of arms from a Serbian state-owned company to Israel. The report, titled “From Belgrade to Be’er Sheva,” detailed arms exports valued at millions of dollars from Serbia to Israel, noting the company’s long-standing ties with the UAE.

The investigation reported that Yugoimport-SDPR exported arms worth $17.1 million to Israel via military and civilian aircraft.

Serbia was a major arms exporter during the Cold War when it was part of Yugoslavia. Despite its close ties with Russia, it has also established relations with Ukraine, exporting $858 million worth of ammunition to Ukraine, according to the Financial Times.

Serbia’s arms exports in 2021 were estimated at approximately $1.2 billion. However, Serbia’s interests extend further into the Middle East. Following the global financial crisis, cash-strapped Serbia sought financial loans from the UAE in 2013, aiming to attract Emirati investments alongside signing military contracts.

In 2013, the two countries announced their first arms deal, involving Serbia’s agreement to export armored vehicles to the UAE and a bilateral agreement to develop guided surface-to-surface missiles. The deal was valued at around $214 million at the time.

Abu Dhabi has also made significant investments in Serbia’s national airline (Air Serbia), though the Serbian government is expected to take over the UAE’s share in the airline.

Serbia continued to collaborate with the UAE on contracts and deals. In 2022, Yugoimport-SDPR signed an agreement with Mohamed bin Zayed, who was then Crown Prince and Deputy Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, to sell “a significant quantity of ammunition,” according to a press release from Serbia’s Ministry of Defense.

Recently, the UAE government made new investments in Serbian tourism through a company linked to Jared Kushner, the former senior advisor and son-in-law of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) reported that the Serbian arms manufacturer “Krušik,” which has ties with Yugoimport-SDPR, sold 60mm, 80mm, and 120mm mortar shells, along with hand grenades, at extremely low prices to a Saudi company.

The investigative website “Arms Watch” found that Serbian arms ended up in the hands of ISIS fighters in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen after they took control of the capital, Sana’a, in 2014. However, the air campaigns failed to defeat the Houthis but led to the deaths of thousands of civilians and caused a humanitarian catastrophe.

Last week, the International Crisis Group stated that the UAE has become increasingly isolated due to its overt alliance and normalization with Israel, ignoring the massacres committed against Palestinians in Gaza.

In an in-depth analysis titled The UAE, Israel, and the Test of Influence, the group highlighted that since the beginning of Israel’s war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, the UAE’s image across the region has deteriorated due to its steadfast normalization with Tel Aviv.

The group’s analysis emphasized that the UAE signed the 2020 Abraham Accords with Israel to achieve strategic advantages. However, during the Gaza war, the costs of this agreement have become apparent. While Abu Dhabi has shown no signs of reconsidering its normalization, it may contemplate smaller measures to express its dissatisfaction with Israel’s campaign, according to the International Crisis Group’s report.

The analysis pointed out that in 2020, the UAE normalized its relations with Israel, becoming, along with Bahrain, one of the first two Arab countries to establish official diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv since Egypt and Jordan signed peace treaties with the Jewish state in 1979 and 1994, respectively.

The Abraham Accords—2020’s normalization agreement—positioned the UAE as a close partner of Israel, theoretically allowing it to use its proximity, new channels of communication, and goodwill to exert some degree of influence over Israel.