Israel: A Fractured Society, Fears of Civil War, and Anxiety Over Its Future

Since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, 2023, internal conflicts and divisions within Israeli society have escalated, with growing fears of a civil war. These tensions have been exacerbated by the Israeli government’s failure to achieve its objectives in the war on Gaza and the inability to rescue the remaining 100 Israeli captives still held by the Palestinian resistance.

Prior to October 7, Israel was already torn apart by protests against judicial reforms proposed by the right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, which many saw as a blow to democracy and a “coup against the state.” Despite the temporary unity shown by Israelis following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, many have concluded that Netanyahu and his government are more interested in prolonging the conflict than rescuing the captives.

A year after the October 7 attack, Israel continues to suffer economically, while its liberal elite are leaving the country. The Israeli government has failed to restore any sense of national unity, and instead, clings to policies that deepen societal divisions. Israeli forces are nearing exhaustion as they fight the longest battle in the country’s history. Even if international courts do not issue arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, the country will still have to grapple with the moral and reputational consequences of the death and destruction it inflicted on Gaza, as analyzed by Foreign Affairs magazine.

The Economist points out that despite an outward appearance of unity, Israel faces unprecedented internal divisions. These rifts are reflected in the growing gap between hawks and doves, the political right and left, and the religious and secular communities, all of whom have different lessons from the events of October.

Disagreement Over the “Victory” in Gaza

According to an Israeli Broadcasting Authority poll conducted a year after the Gaza war, only 27% of Israelis believe that “their country won the war against Hamas,” while 35% think that “it lost.” The rest remain uncertain. Responses vary between government coalition voters and opposition voters.

Among coalition voters, 47% believe Israel won, while 48% of opposition voters think Israel lost the war. Despite a recent slight recovery in the Likud party’s poll numbers (at the expense of its far-right partners), Netanyahu’s coalition may still lose its majority if elections were held now. Ironically, this possibility has helped Netanyahu stay in power, as his allies fear risking their positions by calling for early elections.

Pessimism About the State’s Future

A survey by researchers at Hebrew University in Jerusalem revealed that Israelis are dissatisfied with the ongoing conflict in Gaza, seeing the return of Israeli captives as the most important goal of the war. They are also pessimistic about the future of the state, with more than 20% expressing a desire to leave the country.

Lead researcher Nimrod Nir explained that the findings highlight a nation at a critical juncture, torn between serious security threats and deep internal divisions. He emphasized the urgent need for strategic action on security and renewed efforts to promote social cohesion within Israeli society.

The survey found that 62% of Israelis believe that the greatest threat to the state’s future comes from internal divisions and threats, while 38% view external threats as the biggest danger. When asked about the possibility of leaving Israel for another country, over 20% showed interest in doing so, while 11.3% said they want to but cannot, and 13% were unsure.

At the start of the war in October 2023, 77% of Israelis believed the conflict would lead to greater unity, but one year later, only 40.2% still hold that belief, while 40.6% think the Gaza war has increased societal divisions.

According to the Hebrew University poll, 52.6% of respondents believe that the main goal of the war on Gaza should be the return of the Israeli captives, while only 15.8% think it should be the overthrow of Hamas, and 10% say it should be the destruction of Hamas’ infrastructure.

A striking 75% of those polled believe that Israel should reach a “prisoner exchange deal” and end the war, while 25% opposed such a deal.

In this context, Israeli professor Aaron Ciechanover warned in an interview with The Guardian that the failure to return the captives could lead to the collapse of Israel’s social contract, with catastrophic consequences for the entire state.

Israel’s Security Apparatus Loses Public Confidence

An analysis by Foreign Affairs highlights that Hamas’ attack shattered Israeli self-confidence, overturning long-held beliefs about the country’s security policies and societal standards. The leadership of the Israeli military lost its prestige almost overnight as details emerged about its failure to prevent the attack and its delayed response in rescuing settlers near the Gaza Strip.

Despite the Israeli military’s claims of dismantling Hamas’ military capabilities and destroying much of Gaza’s tunnel network, many Israelis still feel defeated. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar remains free, and about 100 Israeli captives are still missing in Gaza.

According to Foreign Affairs, this catastrophic deadlock, combined with Israel’s increasing global isolation and dim economic prospects, fuels a sense of despair and frustration within Israeli society. The residents of northern and southern border areas are still unable to return to their homes. Instead of uniting Israeli Jews against an external enemy, the multi-front conflict waged by the Israeli military has only widened the existing social and political divide, particularly between Netanyahu’s supporters and his opponents.

The War Accelerates the Exodus of Liberals

Despite Netanyahu’s ideological alignment with many of his far-right allies, he now finds himself politically beholden to them, essentially holding Israeli public opinion hostage. The October 7 attack left secular Israelis in a dilemma. For the past 30 years, since the Madrid Conference of 1991 and the Oslo Accords of 1993, they had viewed their country as an integral part of the West. They saw the Palestinian conflict as a manageable issue that could be contained indefinitely. Netanyahu’s strategy of focusing on economic development while avoiding major moves toward war or peace had facilitated a tacit alliance with Israel’s liberal elite.

Even those who never voted for him benefited from the financial prosperity his approach brought. However, Israeli liberals now find themselves squeezed by rejection from the progressive West and demonization from Netanyahu’s base.

Faced with this pressure, many of Israel’s most committed liberals have turned to two survival strategies. The first is emigration, either temporarily or by seeking foreign passports based on ancestry.

According to Foreign Affairs, this trend existed even before the October 7 attack but has intensified among the wealthier, more educated Israelis as the Gaza war and Netanyahu’s governance continue.

Protests Against Netanyahu: A Survival Strategy for Liberals

The second strategy employed by Israel’s liberal elite is continued protests against Netanyahu and his coalition, demanding a “prisoner exchange deal” and an end to the Gaza war.

In late August, the crisis peaked when six Israeli captives were killed in a tunnel in Rafah, southern Gaza. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets in the largest anti-government protests since the war began, frustrated by the delays in reaching a prisoner deal.

Fears of Civil War as Israeli Society Becomes More Divided

In an article published in Haaretz, David Ohana referenced an Israeli poem by Haim Gouri titled “I Am Civil War,” which describes an internal conflict resembling a civil war.

Ohana expressed concern that the protests against the government could eventually lead to civil disobedience, and possibly even a civil war. He noted that there are now two groups of citizens on either side of the conflict: one seeking to completely change the democratic system, and the other resisting those changes.

Ohana warned that this societal fracture might escalate, pointing to the creation of militias in the West Bank and the growing politicization of Israel’s police force as alarming signs.

The Haredi Draft Controversy Fuels Societal Tensions

The war on Gaza has reignited the debate over the military draft for the ultra-Orthodox (Haredim), who have long refused to serve, citing the need to shield their youth from secular temptations in military life.

However, the war has further highlighted the stark divide between the Haredi community, who are exempt from military service, and the rest of Israeli society, whose young men and women are called upon to “die for their country.”