After Erdogan’s Warnings: What Are the Nature of the Israeli Threats Looming Over Turkey?

The warnings issued by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, highlighting that Israel has set its sights on Turkey after its aggression against both Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, have sparked widespread debate within Turkish opposition circles. This controversy led to a demand for a parliamentary session to discuss the Israeli threats the government alludes to—a session that indeed took place away from the media’s cameras.

Between denials and affirmations from key players in Turkey’s political scene, observers speaking to Sunna Files confirm that long-term threats could affect Turkey if Israel continues its ongoing wars on multiple fronts with the aim of “creating a new Middle East.”

In his address to the Turkish Parliament on October 1, Erdogan emphasized that “the Israeli administration, driven by the delusion of a promised land, has set its sights on Turkish territory after Palestine and Lebanon,” according to the Anadolu Agency.

He added, “Israeli aggression includes Turkey, and therefore, we will stand against this state terrorism with all available means for the sake of our homeland, our people, and our independence.” He further elaborated, describing Israel’s occupation, terrorism, and aggressive bombardment as actions of a “pack of killers feeding on blood and occupation.”

On the following Wednesday, Erdogan again referred to Israel’s colonial ambitions in the Middle East, asserting that the “illusion of a promised land will end in disappointment and a major defeat,” as he put it.

Turkish Opposition Calls for a Parliamentary Session

Following these statements, the Turkish opposition, led by the head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Özgür Özel, demanded a parliamentary session involving government members to provide a briefing on the Israeli threats to Turkey.

The opposition’s statements were marked by skepticism regarding the threats Erdogan repeatedly mentioned. Özel, for instance, characterized the notion of an Israeli military attack on Turkey as “something inconceivable.”

On Tuesday, a closed parliamentary session was held with the participation of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Defense Minister Yaşar Güler to discuss the risks facing Turkey amidst rapid regional developments and Israel’s extended aggression into Lebanon.

Fears of “Regional Immunity Collapse”

Mamdouh Alloush, a researcher on Turkish affairs, explains that “in the short term, there is no evidence of such a threat. However, the fact that this war is reshaping the Middle East means that its repercussions will inevitably affect Turkey.”

He pointed out in his conversation with Sunna Files that “if Israel succeeds in achieving its stated objectives of reshaping the Middle East, it will gain free rein in the region, which could have severe consequences for regional balance.”

Turkey has been a significant player in a region that has been boiling over since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza on October 7, 2023. This conflict expanded into ongoing air and ground assaults on Lebanon since late September.

The continued attacks on Lebanon have driven over 110,000 Lebanese and 310,000 returning Syrians back to Syrian territory between September 23 and October 9, despite the dire security, economic, and living conditions in Syria, which is still suffering from the aftermath of a prolonged conflict.

With the rising costs of living, security threats, and the Syrian regime’s neglect in meeting their needs, thousands of returning Syrians have headed to opposition-held areas in northwestern Syria, already teeming with millions of displaced people.

These developments have raised concerns for Turkey, which hosts over 3 million Syrian refugees, about the possibility of new waves of refugees should the conflict spread further into Syria. Additionally, observers note the risk of reigniting the Syrian front, which has calmed down militarily in recent years due to international agreements involving the Assad regime.

According to Alloush, Turks have “concerns that the collapse of regional immunity could lead to the fragmentation of weak states like Syria, posing a direct threat to Turkey’s national security.”

Instability “Threatening” Southern Turkey

In the same vein, Turkish researcher Ali Asmar argues that the real threat lies in the “potential geopolitical shifts in the region’s map after the war, which could result in a new Sykes-Picot for the region.”

He added in his conversation with Sunna Files that if this happens, it could “lead to the formation of a Kurdish state in northern Syria, increasing the likelihood that this separatist sentiment might spread to Turkey in the future.”

Indeed, Turkey has repeatedly warned against efforts to establish a Kurdish entity on its southern borders with Syria and Iraq, a major reason behind its ongoing military operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara classifies as a terrorist organization.

On several occasions, Erdogan has affirmed his country’s rejection of establishing what he described as a “terrorist state” on its border with Syria.

In a recent speech, he stated, “As we closely monitor Israel’s attacks in Palestine and Lebanon, we are also acutely aware of their intention to create proxy structures in northern Iraq and Syria using the separatist organization (PKK) as a tool.”

According to Asmar, given Turkey’s membership in NATO, a direct military confrontation with Israel is unlikely. He further noted the same point Erdogan made, emphasizing that “the threat Turkey faces is indirect, represented by the PKK and its regional branches funded by the United States.”

Asmar also pointed out that “the militias in the region are managed by certain states and execute the West’s agenda in the area. Therefore, Turkey is closely observing these developments and has dispatched military commanders to northern Syria to assess the situation.”

Turkish Military Readiness and Regional Concerns

Last week, Turkish military commanders visited northern Syria, conducting field inspections and reviewing a Turkish military base in the area known as the “Olive Branch” operation zone, according to a statement by the Turkish Ministry of Defense.

Turkish Defense Ministry spokesperson, Zeki Aktürk, emphasized in a press briefing that “the Turkish armed forces are capable of facing all threats across our borders.”

This visit was followed by statements from Defense Minister Yaşar Güler last Thursday, warning of the increasing risk of the southern region of Turkey being dragged into “significant instability.”

Güler remarked, “Israel’s efforts to spread state terrorism and oppression in Lebanon, after Palestine and Gaza, have increased the risk of dragging the southern region into significant turmoil,” according to the Anadolu Agency.

Nevertheless, “Turkey is a strong country capable of facing any direct threat, but the geopolitical risks resulting from the war have a significant impact on it, as Turkey is part of this region and has extensive interests in it,” as Turkish affairs researcher Mamdouh Alloush noted.

Alloush emphasized that the threats Turkey faces amid regional developments mean that “more wars and conflicts in the Middle East translate to more complex consequences for Turkey—from security to refugee flows and economic challenges.”

Ali Asmar similarly pointed out in his discussion with Sunna Files that “Turkey’s position in a sensitive geopolitical area requires it to be extremely vigilant.”