The UAE as the “Gateway to Israel’s Survival” Amidst Its Ambitions and Aggression in the Arab Region

The UAE stands out as a vital “gateway for Israel’s survival” at a time when the occupation is expanding its ambitions and aggression in the Arab region. Israel views Abu Dhabi as a strategic ally in its regional expansion, especially as it grapples with deep internal disagreements, most notably concerning the future of the Palestinian state.

One year after the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation by the Palestinian resistance—a significant event that radically shifted the “Israeli-Palestinian” conflict and shattered long-standing assumptions about Israel being an “invincible state”—Abu Dhabi emerges as a key supporter of the occupation, providing it with political, military, economic, and even media backing to obscure its crimes in Palestinian territories.

Observers note that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” deeply shook the Israeli entity and its Western backers, exposing severe weaknesses in Israel’s military preparedness, intelligence apparatus, and broader strategic outlook. Moreover, the brutal war that followed reshaped Israel’s standing in the region, as well as its relationships with both allies and adversaries.

More profoundly, the past year has reaffirmed a critical reality: “Israel must chart a new path to secure its survival as the foundations of its old security apparatus crumble.”

American researcher Carlos Roa from the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy states: “Instead, Israel must adopt a strategy centered on regional economic integration that aligns with the interests of its neighbors, reduces tensions, and creates a framework for long-term stability.”

According to the opposition Emirati website UAE71, when discussing Israel’s economic and regional integration, the normalization agreement with Abu Dhabi takes center stage. Despite the massacres and war crimes in Gaza, Abu Dhabi’s political leadership holds firm to this normalization deal, offering Israel the only window of opportunity to survive amidst the collapse of its traditional security foundations.

Israel’s Three Key Pillars Over 70 Years

Israel’s survival has historically relied on three main pillars:

1. 1. Internal Unity: Israel’s diverse society, united solely by the Jewish faith, has managed to withstand external threats. However, political polarization and demographic shifts are undermining this unity. Notably, even before the brutal war on Gaza, Arab voices within Israel grew louder, and a new generation of Israeli youth increasingly refused military service. Political polarization, as seen in the constitutional crisis, only exacerbates these tensions.

1. 1. Arab Divisions: Israel has long exploited divisions and rivalries among Arab nations, preventing a united front against it. However, shifting regional dynamics have weakened this strategy, with Iranian-backed armed groups playing a central role in the recent war, unlike Arab regimes that openly normalize relations with Israel, such as Abu Dhabi, or do so behind closed doors.

1. 1. Western Support: Western backing, particularly from the U.S. and Europe, has been a cornerstone of Israel’s security. However, the recent war eroded this support within sectors of American and European society. Over the past year, thousands have protested weekly against Israeli war crimes in Gaza, pressuring parliaments and political parties to adopt positions once deemed unthinkable. This led many nations to recognize the State of Palestine, further isolating Israel, a trend expected to intensify.

Abu Dhabi at the Heart of Israel’s New Strategy

The brutal war on Gaza has forced several Arab nations to reconsider their relations with Israel, with the exception of Abu Dhabi. Jordan recalled its ambassador the following month, and Egyptian officials warned that any move to push Gaza’s population into Sinai would jeopardize the first normalization treaty, the Camp David Accords. Bahrain and Morocco halted all activities with Israel.

Since normalization, Abu Dhabi has become Israel’s sole gateway into the region under the guise of “regional economic integration.” This new strategy suggests that Israel’s survival depends on Abu Dhabi, especially as its old security pillars collapse.

• • Politically: The UAE, as a regional middle power with a decade of growing soft power and strong relations, provides Israel with the chance for recognition and acceptance beyond its immediate geography, allowing the Palestinian issue to be sidelined. This has already happened, with Abu Dhabi expanding the so-called “Abraham Accords” to include Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, while also pushing for the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia or Mauritania.

• • Militarily: Abu Dhabi, Washington, and Israel agree on the need for a new defense structure (akin to a NATO for the Middle East) to counter Iran’s regional influence and nuclear program, both viewed by Israel as existential threats. Israel aims to create a collective air defense system with its Arab allies, offering access to Gulf sensors, giving Israel more time to prepare for any Iranian attack.

• • Economically: Abu Dhabi provides Israel with a way to break free from economic isolation in the region, allowing Israeli goods, otherwise banned, to be re-exported through UAE ports under Emirati branding. In 2023, trade between Israel and the UAE reached approximately $3 billion, a 17% increase from the previous year, despite a brief slowdown due to Israel’s aggression in Gaza. By the first half of 2024, bilateral trade had reached $1.66 billion, a 7% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

The Role of Abu Dhabi Post-War

Following Israel’s war on Gaza, the occupation will heavily rely on Abu Dhabi to build new relationships in the region as a form of reputational laundering, all under the banner of “economic integration.” During the war, Abu Dhabi frequently provided this kind of reputation laundering, covering Israel’s humanitarian siege with rhetoric about aid bridges and humanitarian assistance.

Since the UAE-Israel normalization, Abu Dhabi has aggressively pursued every possible advantage from this relationship, including investments in technology and weapons and economic exchanges, much to Israel’s satisfaction.

The Future of Abu Dhabi in Israel’s Strategy

Regional integration now appears to be Israel’s only viable path forward, demanding normalization with regional states, particularly Saudi Arabia, and making difficult concessions on the Palestinian issue. However, while most Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia, insist that regional integration cannot succeed without resolving the Palestinian cause, Abu Dhabi has abandoned this stance.

Nonetheless, the Palestinian issue, brought back to the forefront by the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, continues to shape Arab-Israeli relations. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu refuses to entertain the idea of a two-state solution, labeling it as anti-Semitism.

In conclusion, while Abu Dhabi’s unwavering support for Israel’s regional ambitions isolates it further, this position may result in heavy political and economic costs for both the UAE and Israel in the near future.