Axios: Blinken Considers UAE-Israeli Plan for “Day After” in Gaza

The American news website Axios has reported, citing U.S. officials, that Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently reviewing a “post-war plan” based on ideas developed by Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is expected to be proposed after the upcoming presidential elections.

According to a report, numerous officials within the White House and the U.S. State Department are concerned that this plan might sideline Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, an outcome that both Israel and the UAE are pushing for in the short term.

The report noted, “However, with no deal in sight for the release of hostages held by Hamas and no progress towards establishing a ceasefire in Gaza, presenting a ‘day after’ plan could potentially be a positive element of the Biden administration’s legacy surrounding the conflict.”

Several officials within the State Department, including Blinken, believe that a hostage deal and ceasefire seem unlikely before the end of the Biden administration, making the UAE-Israeli plan a potential alternative to start charting what U.S. officials describe as a “path out of the war.”

The report quoted other State Department officials who described the proposal as “unwise,” stating that it only serves the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and is bound to be rejected by Palestinians, resulting in failure.

The report highlighted that American, Israeli, and Emirati officials have been discussing various ideas for potential plans for several months.

One of the notable figures involved in these discussions is former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has proposed some original concepts for the plan.

In July, Brett McGurk, Biden’s top advisor for the Middle East, along with State Department official Tom Sullivan, met in Abu Dhabi with Ron Dermer, Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister and a close ally of Netanyahu, as well as UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed to discuss the plan.

Prior to this, the Emiratis had presented a proposal in the form of an op-ed authored by Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE’s special envoy for Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.

The plan called for the deployment of a temporary international mission in Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid, establish law and order, and lay the groundwork for governance. The Emiratis suggested sending troops to Gaza as part of an international force, but this would be contingent on receiving a formal invitation from the Palestinian Authority, which must undergo “meaningful reforms” and be led by a new Prime Minister who holds real authority and independence.

Axios reported that the UAE essentially wanted to marginalize PA President Mahmoud Abbas, whom they describe as corrupt and incapable of fulfilling his duties, by stripping him of any executive power.

Furthermore, the Emiratis sought to replace the current Palestinian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mustafa, who they view as loyal to Abbas. Another key principle of the UAE’s plan is that it is based on political leaders agreeing to a vision of a two-state solution.

Israeli officials have indicated that Netanyahu was in favor of many aspects of the Emirati plan but opposed the politically sensitive components, particularly the inclusion of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the notion of a two-state solution.

The report mentioned that Israeli-Emirati discussions had gained momentum in recent weeks.

A meeting took place between Dermer and Abdullah bin Zayed separately with Blinken on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September, where they sought American assistance to bridge the remaining gaps between Israel and the UAE on the plan and turn it into a U.S.-endorsed plan to be presented after the presidential elections.

Axios noted that one significant gap centers around a new proposal from the Emiratis that involves reopening the U.S. consulate in occupied Jerusalem as a gesture to the Palestinians, signaling that the United States is committed to the plan and leading the process. However, while the Americans welcomed this idea, the Israelis remain opposed.

Additionally, the Israelis continue to reject any reference to a two-state solution, but the main disagreement between Israel and the UAE revolves around the exact role of the Palestinian Authority.

Emirati officials have emphasized that Abu Dhabi wants the Palestinian Authority’s Prime Minister to appoint a Palestinian figure to help lead the transitional process in Gaza.

However, American and Israeli officials have made it clear that Israel is not open to any long-term role for the Palestinian Authority.

Two senior officials from the U.S. State Department told Axios that if Blinken were to present a plan, it would include ideas from Israel, the UAE, and the United States, aiming to gain broader regional consensus for the plan.

The officials added, “We will not support a ‘day after’ plan without a role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, but it remains unclear what this role might look like.”