Why Is Russia Silent About Israeli Incursions into Syria?

In recent days, Russia has remained notably silent regarding the reported incursions by the Israeli occupation forces in southern Syria. This stance has raised questions about Moscow’s position, especially given its significant influence in Syria.

In its latest statement, Moscow refrained from addressing the movements of the occupation forces within Syrian territories near the occupied Golan Heights. Instead, it only expressed “concern about Israel’s ongoing actions in the Middle East,” according to a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

During the past week, reports have emerged of limited ground incursions by the occupation forces in areas adjacent to the buffer zone with Syria.

Russian Considerations Related to Iran

Russian affairs expert, Taha Abdul Wahid, pointed out the alignment between Russia’s stance and that of the Syrian regime regarding these incursions. He told “Arabi21,” “Neither Russia nor the Syrian regime has commented on these incursions, and it is possible that this silence aims to manage the situation behind the scenes. Perhaps the silence in both Damascus and Moscow could help curb Iranian influence in Syria.”

Abdul Wahid added, “The silence of Moscow and Damascus prevents a snowballing of statements that could provoke public sentiment, forcing the regime into actions it wishes to avoid, such as confronting the Israeli forces operating inside Syria.”

He continued, “Russia, for its part, is not interested in escalating tensions on the Syrian front, so it may be managing the situation quietly, away from the spotlight.” Meanwhile, Russian affairs expert Samer Elias suggested that Russia’s passive stance towards Israeli strikes on Iranian sites might be part of its broader strategy to limit Iran’s influence and monopolize political and economic gains after solidifying the Assad regime with the intervention of these two powers.

In an article, Elias further elaborated, “One must not overlook an important factor: Russia may see Iran’s strong presence in Syria as an obstacle to the return of refugees, economic improvement, and gaining Western and Arab support for reconstruction and infrastructure rehabilitation for the return of refugees. Moreover, unlike Russia, Iran lacks the capability to finance Syria’s reconstruction costs.”

Restricting the Regime

Russian political analyst, Andrei Ontikov, argued that his country’s disregard for Israel’s actions in Syria risks damaging Moscow’s reputation in the Arab and Islamic worlds.

Ontikov, in a discussion with Russia’s “Tsargrad” website, noted that “Arab media have been suggesting that Russia prevents Damascus from shooting down Israeli aircraft, even though it has connections with the Israeli side, despite possessing ‘S-400’ air defense systems at the Hmeimim Air Base.”

He added, “If Russia were to shoot down an Israeli plane, it could mean the beginning of a war. On the other hand, there are Russian troops on the ground in Syria, and Israel often targets sites close to them, which poses a risk to their safety.”

Tasks of the “Syrian Army”

The Russian silence coincided with Israeli airstrikes in the coastal city of Latakia, near the Russian “Hmeimim” airbase.

Former diplomat and close adviser to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Rami Al-Shaer, stated, “There are no Russian zones of influence in Syria or anywhere else beyond its borders. Instead, there are cooperation agreements, including the use of a port on the Syrian coast to supply the Russian fleet.”

Speaking to “Arabi21,” Al-Shaer explained, “The Hmeimim airbase was established at the official request of the Syrian government to assist in combating terrorist groups. This does not conflict with international law, as requesting assistance is documented in the UN Charter.”

He further stated, “There is no coordination between Russia and Israel; rather, there is a military-security communication channel to avoid any threats to Russian observation points along the Syrian-Israeli border.”

Regarding the airstrikes, Al-Shaer said, “The strikes are conducted from outside Syrian airspace, and it is the duty of the Syrian army to respond. Therefore, Russia’s role is to maintain a ceasefire and prevent the outbreak of a broader civil war in Syria. Protecting Syria from external aggressions falls under the responsibility of the Damascus regime.”

Additionally, Al-Shaer cast doubt on reports of any ground incursion by the occupation forces into Syria, stating, “I do not believe there was any ground incursion, despite repeated aerial violations. Unfortunately, given Syria’s internal situation and the division within its society, it is unable to protect its sovereignty.”