Israel Plans a Major and “Complex” Strike, and Here’s How Iran Prepares to Respond

Sources in Iran have revealed that the political and military leadership in Tehran is taking all necessary measures to respond to a potential Israeli attack, which could happen at any time.

The sources highlighted growing tension among Iran’s top leadership, particularly due to a lack of trust in any American promises to restrain Tel Aviv and ensure that the response would be relatively limited without targeting nuclear or oil facilities.

On October 1, 2024, Tehran launched a wave of guided ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of prominent figures in the Resistance Axis (Hassan Nasrallah, Ismail Haniyeh, Abbas Nilforoushan). This came after a long period of strategic patience from Iran, aimed at avoiding being drawn into a large-scale war, which Tehran described as an “Israeli trap.”

Since then, Israel has pledged to respond to this Iranian attack with a strike targeting unspecified locations in Iran.

Growing Anxiety as U.S. Elections Approach

As the U.S. presidential elections draw closer, anticipation and anxiety have grown in Tehran, with eyes fixed on a possible Israeli response. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, just hours after the Iranian missile strikes, vowed a painful response, declaring, “Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves.”

Tehran Expects a Major and Complex Israeli Attack

Despite U.S. President Joe Biden’s statement in a press conference expressing disapproval of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities, an informed Iranian security source told “Arabi Post,” preferring anonymity, that Tehran does not trust the reassurances Washington has conveyed through intermediaries.

The source said, “We have intelligence assessments suggesting that Washington has failed to restrain Israel from targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities, and that Israel is planning a very large and complex strike.”

He added, “Following the Iranian attack on Israel, the Israelis attempted more than a thousand cyber strikes, seeking to breach Iranian systems.”

According to Iranian sources, several nuclear facilities, power stations, water networks, and military sites affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard have been targeted by Israeli cyberattacks in recent weeks.

A source close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council told “Arabi Post”: “Israel is attempting to penetrate Iran’s electronic defense systems,” emphasizing that Iran has managed to repel these attacks to the best of its ability.

The spokesperson pointed out that Israel’s cyberattacks seem to be preparing the ground for a more significant attack, saying, “The Israelis are trying to replicate what they did to pager systems in Lebanon, launching multiple attacks on Iranian defense systems, fuel stations, and attempting to breach nuclear and oil infrastructure. Although we have thwarted most of these attempts, we expect a stronger and larger cyber offensive as part of Israel’s impending military assault.”

Expected Targets

Iranian sources told “Arabi Post” that the military leadership in Tehran believes Israel might start by targeting Iranian military sites. Simultaneously, there are expectations of a maritime assault from the Sea of Oman aimed at hitting Iranian oil facilities.

In his conversation with “Arabi Post,” Iranian military analyst Mustafa Mosalla, close to the Revolutionary Guard, said, “Tehran expects Israeli forces to target Iranian territories via Iraqi airspace with American assistance.”

He continued, “Among the scenarios that Iranian military leaders anticipate is that Washington will assist Israeli warplanes in entering Iranian airspace to strike critical nuclear and oil facilities.”

Distrust in U.S. Guarantees

Since the October 1 missile attack on Israel, Tehran has received American messages through intermediaries, promising efforts to prevent further escalation between Iran and Israel and trying to restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, an Iranian diplomatic source close to the top leadership told “Arabi Post”: “We do not trust American assurances. After multiple meetings and discussions, and after reviewing messages transmitted by intermediaries, there is nothing that reassures us of Washington’s intentions.”

He added, “Even the Supreme Leader mentioned during a meeting that we expect a significant attack on our oil facilities, and there is nothing to stop Israel from targeting nuclear installations as well, especially since Netanyahu convinced Biden that he can dismantle the Resistance Axis and Hamas, claiming he has won his war.”

The source clarified, “Biden cannot control Netanyahu; he merely wants to appease him before the elections. While they both agree that the Israeli attack on Iran should not damage the U.S. election prospects, this does not mean it will be a limited attack. Netanyahu has a strong desire to ignite a war in the Middle East, dragging the U.S. into a confrontation against Iran to prevent any possibility of a new nuclear deal with the West and Washington.”

Notable nuclear facilities in Iran include the Bushehr plant on the Gulf coast and the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, which has been targeted by several American and Israeli sabotage attempts. Additionally, Iran has nuclear technology centers distributed around the outskirts of Isfahan.

As for oil infrastructure, Kharg Island remains one of Iran’s most vital oil terminals, accounting for around 90% of the country’s oil exports. The island is home to massive oil storage facilities. Furthermore, the Abadan refinery in Khuzestan Province is estimated to process over 600,000 barrels of oil per day, according to government figures.

Other key sites include the Asaluyeh complex in Bushehr Province, near the South Pars gas field, and the Bandar Abbas refinery, which handles 400,000 barrels of oil daily.

How is Iran Preparing?

In response to questions about Iran’s preparations for a potential Israeli strike, an Iranian security source told “Arabi Post”: “We have taken numerous measures to confront Israel.”

He elaborated, “For instance, we have readied over 3,000 hypersonic ballistic missiles, prepared to launch at Israel the moment any attack on Iran begins. These missiles will target Israeli military airbases, preventing their aircraft from returning to their bases.”

The source continued, “We will also direct a portion of the missiles towards civilian infrastructure within Israel, and we have deployed air defense systems around key facilities that Israel is likely to target.”

Addressing Iran’s air defenses, military analyst Mustafa Mosalla, who is close to the Revolutionary Guard, told “Arabi Post”: “While Iran is fully prepared for an Israeli strike, the country is vast, and our air defense systems cannot cover all regions. Our nuclear, oil, and military facilities are spread across multiple provinces, which is unfortunately a weakness.”

In this regard, Iran appears to be addressing these vulnerabilities ahead of a potential Israeli attack. A government source close to President Masoud Pezeshkian told “Arabi Post”: “In the latest meeting between Pezeshkian and the Russian president, we managed to secure assistance for our air defense systems. Although Moscow hesitated to deliver the S-400 system, we eventually acquired it.”

This was confirmed by a source close to the Supreme National Security Council, who told “Arabi Post”: “The relationship between Tehran and Moscow is solid, especially in the military field. While Russia has occasionally backtracked on its promises, such as previously canceling the delivery of Sukhoi-300 jets after payments were made, we have now obtained what we need to strengthen our air defenses.”

The same source indicated that Iran is also on the verge of securing an advanced weapons deal with China, which includes the “Silent Hunter” system. This defense mechanism is designed to shoot down drones using high-powered lasers, capable of striking down low-flying unmanned aircraft.

The spokesperson concluded to “Arabi Post”: “Things are progressing smoothly, and the deal is moving towards success. This is not solely to counter an anticipated Israeli attack but also to enhance Iran’s defense systems with support from its friends in the East.”