Israeli Fears of Harris and Concerns Over “Trump’s Surprises” — What’s the Reason?

It’s no secret that the occupying state is among the most politically attentive entities to the U.S. presidential elections due to the consequential implications of the anticipated results. Israelis don’t need further predictions to believe that a Democratic administration under Kamala Harris, should she win, would continue the policies of Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama regarding the Palestinian issue. At the same time, it is certain that Donald Trump would make his decisions independently, but it is difficult for Israelis to ascertain what these decisions might entail at this stage. Indeed, his first presidential term was the most supportive in history for them, but there is no guarantee that this political record will be repeated.

Michael Oren, the former ambassador of the occupying state to the United States, confirmed that “for decades, perhaps the only real issue agreed upon between the competing parties in Washington was the support of the Israeli occupation. Both Democrats and Republicans agreed on the necessity of supporting it, and its ability to defend itself under all circumstances.”

In an article published by the Hebrew newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth” and translated by “Arabi21,” he noted that “15 years ago, with Obama’s presidency, this consensus began to erode. Democrats increasingly criticized the Israeli right-wing leadership and its policies towards the Palestinians. Some parts of the Democratic Party started to question the provision of U.S. military aid to the occupation, and some even denied its right to exist. Meanwhile, Republicans claimed they were the true supporters of the occupation, focusing more on criticizing the Palestinians.”

He pointed out that “as with nearly all other major issues such as immigration, abortion, and gun rights, the state of occupation has moved from a source of bipartisan agreement to a focal point of polarization. Now, in the 2024 elections, the depth of this rift has been fully revealed, with Harris repeatedly promising to support the occupation’s right to exist and defend itself, but her promises come with a ‘but’.”

He emphasized that “while Harris says it’s important for Israel to defend itself, ‘but’ the Palestinians must have a state that provides them with security and pride. On the other hand, Trump supports the occupation unconditionally, and certainly not the establishment of a Palestinian state. He warns that if Harris wins, ‘Israel’ could be eliminated within two years.”

He explained that “while both called for an end to the war in the region, they offer completely different methods to achieve it. Harris wants this through negotiations between Israel and Hamas, a ceasefire, and a swap agreement. Trump claims the war will end when restrictions on the occupation are lifted, giving it the opportunity to complete the job.”

He concluded by saying, “You don’t need to be a prophet to know that a Harris administration would continue Biden and Obama’s policies on the Palestinian issue, support a two-state solution, oppose settlement building, and seek rapprochement with Iran. It may even try to renew the nuclear deal with them. Unlike Biden, who belongs to a generation that remembers the 1967 war, she may not have a strong emotional connection to the state of occupation. Unlike Obama, who made his own decisions regarding the Middle East, Harris is expected to listen to her advisors, some of whom have consistently criticized the occupation.”

This comes amid the heated electoral race between Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, set against the backdrop of the approaching polling date on November 5th. Both sides continue their efforts to attract Arab and Muslim votes under promises of achieving peace in the Middle East, which witnesses escalating tensions due to Israeli aggression on Gaza and Lebanon and the reciprocal attacks between the occupation and Iran.