The West Retracts Its “Reassurance”: Tehran Prepares

Since the early days following the Israeli attack on their country, which some observers described as “limited” and even considered “the end” of the escalation between Tel Aviv and Tehran, Iranian officials have emphasized the importance of not “underestimating” the assault on Iranian territory, despite Israeli “false” claims aimed at “magnifying” it. This has signaled a real political desire within Tehran to respond to the mentioned aggression, despite efforts by Tel Aviv’s allies, led by Washington, to convince Tehran to “settle” for this amount of mutual engagement with the entity. Indeed, recent official Iranian statements have confirmed that a response is approaching, with the latest from the Commander of the Revolutionary Guards, General Hussein Salami, who stated on Thursday that Israel “made another mistake” and that it will “taste an unimaginable response,” following Operation “True Promise 2,” which exposed the work of the Israeli “Missile Shield,” according to his expression. Additionally, Mohammad Mohammadi, the head of the Iranian Supreme Leader’s office, recently threatened a “harsh and painful” response to the entity.

On the other hand, Western and Israeli media outlets have reported that Tehran plans to launch its attack “within a few days.” In this context, the website “Axios,” quoting two Israeli officials, reported that Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran “is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, before the US presidential elections.” According to the information mentioned, “the attack is expected to be launched from Iraq, using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles,” while a US official told the site that “Iran is capable of preparing quickly, should it decide that the attack will happen soon,” noting that Washington “does not know” if the decision has already been made. Also, CNN, quoting a “high-ranking source,” said that the recent Israeli attacks on Iran “will be met with a final and painful response,” likely to come before the US presidential elections. Later, CNN quoted an Israeli military source stating that Israel is “at the highest level of readiness to respond to the potential Iranian attack.”

Meanwhile, the “New York Times” quoted three Iranian officials stating that “the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, has instructed the Supreme National Security Council on Monday to prepare to attack Israel,” after reviewing a “report on the damages” caused by the Israeli attack, which revealed that it “cannot be ignored.” Unlike Israeli assessments, these sources stated that the attack is expected to occur after the US presidential elections so that “the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, does not gain any advantage in the race.” The newspaper also quoted Sina Azodi, an expert on Iranian military affairs and an assistant professor at George Washington University, saying that Iran appears ready “to take risks” regarding the response, as it is most important for them to “not appear weak” and to maintain “their credibility both domestically and internationally.”

This opinion is echoed by a number of analysts who believe that Tehran will not allow the Israeli targeting to pass without establishing a deterrence equation, regarding the prevention of targeting its territory. In this context, the site “Responsible Statecraft,” at the end of last month, reported that Tehran likely believes that refraining from responding would amount to “normalizing” the Israeli attacks on Tehran or any other Iranian cities, leading to the erasure of existing red lines. According to these opinions, the question currently in the minds of decision-makers in Tehran is that while previous strikes have so far targeted only military objectives, what would deter Israel “from targeting economic infrastructure next time, in the absence of any reliable deterrence?” making a return to the status quo that existed between Tel Aviv and Tehran before October 7 last year “insufficient” from the latter’s perspective. The report indicates that warnings from Western powers, especially from Britain and Germany, lose “weight,” as they continue to provide almost unconditional support for what they say is “Israel’s right to self-defense,” and are content with “rhetoric” about Israel’s need to respect “international law and the laws of war,” adding that if this approach does not change, unilateral warnings by these parties to Tehran will continue to be met with “deaf ears,” and will lead to the continual judgment that European strategy and diplomacy are “irrelevant.” While a number of observers place special importance on the US elections in terms of “shaping” the war in the Middle East, including the escalation between Israel and Iran, observers in an opinion piece published by the “Washington Post” warn that in the period after the elections, at least until January, the problems in the Middle East will be “similar” to what we currently see; it is likely that hostilities in Gaza, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed and millions displaced, will continue, the war in Lebanon will persist, and “doubts” within Arab states, including US allies in the Gulf, about the possibility of reaching a meaningful plan for “the day after” in the sector will likely increase, while the conflict between Israel and Iran, which could reach “boiling point,” will likely intensify.