How Iran Will Respond to Israel: The Military’s Role in the Attack

According to the Wall Street Journal, “Iran has sent a diplomatic message, defiantly stating that it plans a complex response involving more powerful warheads and other weapons, as noted by Iranian and Arab officials who have seen the plans.”

The article further states, “Israel’s response will depend on the scale, nature, and effectiveness of the strike threatened by Tehran. So far, Israel has refrained from targeting Iranian oil and nuclear facilities, which are critical to its economy and security. However, this calculation might change,” as stated by Israeli officials.

Iranian and Arab officials mentioned, “Iran has informed Arab diplomats that its conventional military will participate because it lost four soldiers and a civilian in the Israeli attack,” according to the American newspaper.

The Wall Street Journal clarified: “Involving its regular army does not mean deploying its forces, but rather, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which typically handles Israeli security matters, will not act alone in this situation.”

An Egyptian official told the newspaper, “Iran specifically warned of a strong and complex response, while an Iranian official said, ‘Our army has lost some members, so they must respond.'”

It was added that Iran might use Iraqi territory for part of the operation and is likely to target Israeli military facilities, “but in a more aggressive manner than last time.”

Iranian and Arab officials added, “Iran plans not to limit its response to missiles and drones, as in the previous attacks, and any missiles used will have more powerful warheads.”

An Iranian official stated, “Another factor in Iran’s response is the U.S. elections. Iran does not want to influence the U.S. elections with its attack,” adding that the response will come after Tuesday’s voting but before a new president is inaugurated in January.

According to American intelligence agencies, Iran prefers Kamala Harris over Donald Trump.

Officials from Egypt, Bahrain, and Oman mentioned that Iranian diplomats outlined these response plans after receiving warnings from the United States, both public and private, against engaging in reciprocal actions with Israel.

Last week, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, said that any Iranian attack on Israel or the United States would result in “severe consequences.”

She stated, “We believe this should end the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran.” Initially, Iranian officials informed other countries in the region that Tehran did not intend to respond, but within days, the tone changed.

Western officials believe that Iranian decision-makers are discussing how and whether Iran should respond, including whether the attack should come directly or from proxies outside Iran to provide a layer of deniability, according to the newspaper.

Arab officials expressed concern to the newspaper that Israel might not restrain itself this time, and Netanyahu reaffirmed last week that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains “the supreme goal” for Israel, while Iran denies working on a nuclear weapon.