What Are the Consequences of Trump’s Victory for Relations with Israel, the Gaza War, and Normalization Efforts?

As the preliminary results point to President Donald Trump winning a second term, “Israeli readings” have intensified regarding the expected consequences of this victory on the American relationship with the State of Israel, as well as the expected behavior towards the war on Gaza and the ongoing escalation with Iran.

In this context, “Channel 14” Israeli writer Tair Altchuler claimed that “Trump’s second term could lead to strong security support for the State of Israel, a firm American stance against Iran, and efforts to expand normalization agreements with additional Arab countries.”

Altchuler added in an article translated by “Arabi21” that “however, the ‘America First’ policy could also lead to increased diplomatic isolation, affecting relations with the Democrats and the United States’ allies in Europe.”

He continued, “The direct impact of Trump’s victory on Israeli-American relations reminds us that his first term resulted in significant decisions for the occupation, including moving the American embassy to occupied Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and withdrawing the United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran, all of which strengthened his relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and provided diplomatic support for the occupation.”

He noted, “Trump might revert to his ‘America First’ policy, meaning less engagement in the Middle East, but at the same time, he will support imposing stricter sanctions on Iran and taking a firm stance against organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, which prompts discussions about the expected impact of his victory on the future of the ongoing war.”

The same writer explained, “Re-electing Trump could alter the military and political support that the occupation receives in its war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah on the northern border. It is expected that Trump will continue his tough approach towards Iran and tighten sanctions, which may put additional pressure on Hezbollah, but it is also possible that he will require the occupation to act more independently in terms of security.”

He added that “Trump, who boasted that during his term normalization agreements were signed between the State of Israel and Arab countries like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and worked to deepen economic and security relations in the Middle East, might push his new administration to expand these agreements with additional countries.”

Regarding Trump’s anticipated policy towards Iran, the writer believes that “one characteristic of his previous term was his opposition to the nuclear deal with Iran, and another term could lead to the tightening of sanctions and increasing diplomatic pressures on it, potentially delaying its progress on the nuclear project, but this policy is not without risks, as being overly harsh could lead to greater instability in the region, and even rising global energy prices.”

He concluded by saying, “Trump’s victory is expected to cast a shadow over the State of Israel’s relations with the Democratic Party, as Trump is seen as particularly friendly to it, but his strict approach led to distancing from the Democratic Party and the U.S.’s European allies.”

Meanwhile, “Times of Israel” writer Tal Schneider asserted that “Trump’s victory does not guarantee a green light for Netanyahu, although it is a short-term celebration for him, it is not expected to last long.”

Schneider added in an article translated by “Arabi21,” “The big promises regarding Iran will fade, in light of Trump’s close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and therefore his administration may not allow the occupation to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, especially after his vice president, JD Vance, announced that the United States plans to start diplomatic negotiations with Iran soon, because we have an interest in not entering into a war with it.”

She continued, “Vance, who will not be a policy maker in the White House, but his answers in a key interview during the campaign reflect the instructions and preparations he received from Trump’s team of experts and advisors, where he made many promises in the final weeks of the campaign to the Muslim, Arab, and Lebanese American public, promising to end the war, bring peace and dignity to the Lebanese people, and free them from their great suffering.”

She noted, “Trump has been addressing the war on Gaza since July 2024, in his meeting with Netanyahu, and affirmed that the war must end, the hostages must be returned, and military activities in Gaza must be stopped, which opens the discussion on how all this will be achieved by January 2025, the date of his inauguration, and whether his demands will become a reality on the ground if he succeeds in expanding normalization agreements, and bringing Saudi Arabia to an agreement with the State of Israel.”

She clarified that “there is likely to be a gap between Trump’s big statements and the bloody reality of Israeli society, as he conducts regular talks with Putin, known for his relations and influence in Iran, and Israelis may have to get used to the new Trump-Putin axis, and with no significant political opposition, he will be able to promote many moves.”