Iran Decides: There is No Escaping a Response to Israel

The tone used by Iranian officials in recent days has become sharper than that prevalent in the immediate aftermath of Israel’s attack on Iran on the dawn of October 26. Initially characterized by calm and caution, the rhetoric now indicates a greater readiness on Iran’s part to respond anew to Israel. Although the timing of the response has not yet been determined—whether it will occur before or after the U.S. presidential elections, and whether it will originate from Iranian or Iraqi territory—the cyclical escalation between Iran and Israel continues.

Yesterday, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Major General Hossein Salami, confirmed that “the resistance front and Iran will prepare themselves with everything necessary to confront the enemy,” and that “the Islamic resistance in the region will deliver a harsh response to the axis of evil.” In his message on the “National Day of Fighting Arrogance,” which coincides with the anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran by students after the revolution, he stated, “We have learned how to inflict decisive blows on our enemy, to stand up to the devilish powers, and to withstand them.” Meanwhile, the commander of the Iranian Navy, Admiral Shahram Irani, asserted that “the Iranian armed forces will show no mercy to the enemy in any confrontation.” The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated last Saturday that “the enemies, whether the Zionist entity or the United States of America, will definitely receive a stern response for what they perpetrate against the Iranian people and the resistance front.” He confirmed that all necessary measures, “whether military, armament, or political activities,” are in progress.

This statement came after his initial reaction to Israel’s attack on military targets in Iran, in response to the latter’s missile strike on October 1 against Israel. At that time, he stated that the Israeli attack should neither be “exaggerated” nor “underestimated,” noting that the strike reportedly targeted parts of the defense system and missile production facilities in Iran. Although the Iranian authorities initially downplayed the importance and impact of the attack, announcing that the air defenses had dealt with it successfully, the Revolutionary Guard later vowed to retaliate against Israel again. The spokesman for the Guard, Ali Mohammad Naeini, told the Fars News Agency, “The response to the new enemy aggression will be inevitable and firm.”

While the Supreme Leader did not specify in his latest statement whether the Iranian response to Israel would be similar to the missile strikes of April and October, Axios earlier reported, citing informed sources, that Israel’s intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is preparing to attack Israel “from Iraqi territory in the coming days” and “before the U.S. presidential elections.” Some media outlets, including the New York Times, suggested that Iran might launch an attack after the elections, claiming that “Iran is concerned that escalating tensions in the region might benefit Donald Trump.” The Biden administration has warned Iran, through a message via Switzerland, against carrying out any further attacks on Israel. Axios reported, quoting a U.S. official and a former Israeli official, “We have informed Iranian officials that in the event of such an attack, we may not be able to restrain Israel or ensure that the Israeli response is calculated and limited as before.” Similarly, recent Israeli statements, the latest from the Minister of Education, Yoav Kisch, who said yesterday that if Iran “makes a mistake” and decides to respond, it would allow his entity to “continue implementing its strategy” in the region, without providing further details.

In contrast, Iranian newspapers have published various articles about the anticipated Iranian response to Israel. The newspaper Jam Jam, in an article by editorial board member Mohammad Ghaderi, referred to the Supreme Leader’s statements that “Iran does not intend to tolerate the evil and aggressive practices of the enemy,” suggesting that his words are “part of a strategy aimed at confusing the enemy’s miscalculations, so that the Western-Zionist front—and of course its Arab protectors—understand that Iran and the resistance axis have not weakened in the battlefield, but are fully prepared with all their might to defend themselves against an enemy that adheres to no international or humanitarian rules.” Hemshahri newspaper, in an article by Mehdi Khan Ali Zadeh, highlighted the Israeli strategy in confronting Iran, stating that “one of the main strategies of the Israeli entity in the days following the Iranian attack was to enhance and solidify the path it adopted against Iran after the latter’s implementation of the operation True Promise 2,” meaning creating an atmosphere of “ambiguity” and “hesitation” aimed at “making Tehran react inappropriately.” The paper argued that “what negates this Israeli plan is a strategy based on changing the other party’s perception”; i.e., a response that can be built on a “shocking counteraction” that would disrupt the puzzle set by Tel Aviv. The example given could be the announcement of a “final deadline” to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and if not achieved, it would be followed by an Iranian field and operational intervention, noting that “this strategy—which can involve various tactics in execution—must be implemented in a short time frame, to take away the decision-making and policy-making ability from the other party.”

Arman Melli newspaper, in an article by Abdul Reza Faraji Rad, ruled out the outbreak of a regional and comprehensive war in the successive reactions between Iran and Israel. The paper referred to American policy, stating, “Iran may respond, and then Israel may respond to Iran at another time, but the Americans do not intervene in the conflict. If Trump is elected three days from now, he will seek, on the basis of the promises he made, to pressure Netanyahu to end the war. But if Mrs. Harris wins the elections, her policy will differ somewhat from Biden’s, and she will face, like Obama, a problem with Netanyahu. Therefore, it is unlikely that these shuttle attacks will lead to a regional war.” The newspaper continued, “The international strategic circumstances do not allow for it. America, against the backdrop of Russia’s war with Ukraine and competition with China, does not want such a comprehensive war to erupt in the region, lest its rivals exploit it, so America will definitely not allow Israel to drag it into an ongoing and permanent war.”