Israeli Discussions on Ending War on Lebanon: Has the Occupation Achieved Its Goals?

As battles intensify in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah withstands Israel’s attempts to destabilize its leadership, reports from Israeli media suggest an impending end to hostilities on the northern front.

Israel’s Objectives in Lebanon

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outlined several goals for this conflict, chief among them being the safe return of northern Israeli residents who fled due to Hezbollah’s continued bombardment for over a year.

Reasons for a Pause in the Ground Offensive

Israeli media cites multiple factors behind the potential halt to Israel’s ground operations in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli Channel 12 reported that Israel is considering a ceasefire to avoid international intervention, particularly from the United Nations. Additionally, it noted that the Biden administration has been exerting significant pressure on Israel to end the southern offensive.

Meanwhile, Channel 13 reported that the Israeli army is nearing the end of its ground campaign in Lebanon, with over 90% of ground operations completed. However, the cessation of operations awaits a political agreement before an official announcement can be made.

Claims of Progress and Achievements

Israeli sources claim notable gains, including uncovering Hezbollah’s infrastructure, destroying arms caches, and capturing fighters who allegedly provided valuable intelligence. As part of these steps, Israel has begun to demobilize thousands of regular and reserve troops, preparing for a strategic redeployment along the Lebanese border.

The Israeli Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, expressed confidence in concluding the war on the Lebanese front, asserting that Hezbollah’s upper leadership has been significantly weakened.

Alleged Advances in Ceasefire Talks

Israeli media has exclusively reported on progress in ceasefire negotiations, with the newspaper Israel Hayom quoting an Israeli official who described the proposed agreement as highly favorable for Israel. Furthermore, Israel’s state broadcasting authority reported tangible advances in the discussions surrounding the northern front.

Assessing Israel’s Goals

Despite Israel’s assassination of key Hezbollah leaders, its main objective—resettling Israeli citizens along the northern border—remains unachieved. Hezbollah continues to wage fierce battles in the south, inflicting heavy losses on Israeli forces.

Additionally, Hezbollah’s rocket attacks have increased, reaching targets as far as Haifa and the greater Tel Aviv area.

Intensifying Rocket Strikes

On Sunday morning, Hezbollah announced missile strikes on Israeli forces near the Hasan Gate around the Lebanese town of Shebaa. It also launched a barrage on another Israeli military gathering in the HaGoshrim settlement.

Israel’s Home Front Command issued an early morning warning after alarms were triggered in the Kiryat Shmona and Margaliot settlements, indicating a potential drone incursion from Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s statement mentioned 27 separate operations on Saturday, including its first attack on the Ein Kozlot base south of the Sea of Galilee and another on the Melam military factory, roughly 132 kilometers from the Lebanese border.

Further attacks targeted three bases in Haifa, the Upper Galilee, and Israeli military concentrations in northern Israel. Hezbollah also launched rockets at the Meron and Zvulun bases in the Galilee region and other locations, including Safed and the settlements of Baram and Kiryat Shmona.

Activists on social media circulated footage of Hezbollah rockets being launched from positions near the border, even as Israel continues its ground incursions aimed at pushing Hezbollah fighters further back.

In response, the Israeli military confirmed that 70 rockets were fired from Lebanon on Saturday, striking areas in Acre, Haifa Bay, and the Galilee.

On Friday, Hezbollah’s attacks forced nearly two million Israelis into bomb shelters, and Israel’s Home Front Command activated alarms in Acre and surrounding towns.

Mounting Israeli Casualties

As battles rage in southern Lebanon and northern Gaza, the Israeli army maintains strict censorship regarding casualty announcements.

On Thursday, Israel admitted to the deaths of five soldiers and injuries to 16 others in recent fighting in southern Lebanon. The following day, Israel’s military website reported ten more injuries in a 24-hour period, eight of which occurred in Lebanon and two in Gaza.

Since the start of what Israel terms the “genocidal war” in Gaza on October 7, 2023, Israel has recorded 5,292 military casualties across Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.

According to a report by Maariv journalist Ben Caspit, Israel has faced heavy losses across seven fronts in this ongoing regional war, losing forces equivalent to two military divisions and experiencing a critical shortage in troops, even before accounting for casualties.

This report suggests that the prolonged conflict is leading to an exhaustion of Israeli forces, creating frustration among reservists burdened by repeated call-ups and regular troops under constant pressure.

The analysis concludes that Israel faces ongoing, complex crises internally—both political and economic—amid its regional war efforts. It attributes these issues primarily to the enduring leadership of Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Hezbollah’s Resilience

Hezbollah’s resilience, despite losing key leaders, is evident through the continued intensity of its strikes on Israeli territory. Last week, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General, Naim Qassem, warned that there are no safe zones within Israel beyond the reach of Hezbollah’s drones and missiles. He asserted that Hezbollah’s preparations since the 2006 conflict have fortified it for such a day, fully expecting an Israeli assault at some point.

Qassem emphasized that Hezbollah is currently engaged in a defensive posture to counter Israel’s aggressive expansionist goals in Lebanon.

Regarding an end to Israeli aggression, Qassem stated, “We believe only the battlefield can bring this aggressive war to an end.” He clarified that the battleground comprises both border defenses and long-range strikes targeting Israeli internal areas, aiming to impose a tangible cost on Israel and deter it from continuing the war.

The New York Times recently reported that Hezbollah has successfully replaced its assassinated leaders with secret appointments, keeping the identities of its commanders concealed from Israeli intelligence. According to an Israeli source, Hezbollah’s new leadership structure has enabled it to swiftly reorganize and mount a formidable resistance.

The report highlights that Hezbollah sustained significant losses in September, including the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the party’s Secretary General. However, these losses have had minimal impact on Hezbollah’s operational effectiveness, as it has achieved substantial successes against Israel in southern Lebanon.