Trump and the Beginning of Western Alliance Disintegration

With Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election, the Western bloc is expected to witness an unprecedented rift, potentially marking the start of a true disintegration. Under President Joe Biden, this scenario wasn’t on the table. The American administration had maintained a “generous” approach toward its Western allies, refraining from exerting significant pressure, whether in internal policies within the G7 or in foreign affairs concerning issues like Palestine and Ukraine. European countries had relatively free rein in managing their economic and security matters. Now, however, the dynamics are set to shift.

The United States seeks to reclaim its global position and reestablish leadership over the Western alliance. This leaves no room for Western allies to profit from American foreign policy or expect leniency. Trump’s transactional approach means everyone will pay for their own security.

On the other side of the global order, Russia stands as the primary beneficiary of this American shift. A weakened Western bloc, particularly Ukraine’s allies, aligns with Russian interests. The U.S. is unlikely to continue as Ukraine’s primary defender, compelling France and Germany especially to shoulder the defense burden, including the defense of their European Union itself. This shift will be a heavy load for Europe, hindering its independent armament projects.

Europe will no longer have the luxury of extracting economic profit from weakening Russia through war and exploiting Ukraine’s resources without bearing the costs. This reality is feared by all European Union nations but welcomed by Russia.

As for the central Palestinian cause and the Zionist aggression against Gaza, there is an advantage for Palestine: European countries that support the Zionist entity will be forced into a defensive stance rather than remaining on the offensive. These nations will increasingly focus on safeguarding their economic security against challenges from China and the United States, and on military security from Russia, rather than defending the Zionist entity.

Trump has repeatedly stated he would not defend any nation for free, be it in Europe or the Middle East—everyone must pay their share. This shift will push European countries to concentrate their resources within their continent, thus naturally reducing their military and financial involvement in the aggression against Gaza. France and Germany, two of the most inclined to distance themselves from U.S. dominance, will especially feel this.

Iran, meanwhile, could benefit from two angles: the beginning of Western alliance disintegration and the strengthening of the Eastern bloc (China, Russia, and BRICS). This widening gap gives Iran and its allies in the region an opening to bolster their power, contrary to what might be expected. Furthermore, Gulf countries might also enjoy a wider maneuvering space with the East to avoid Trump’s anticipated pressure tactics if they choose. All these indicators suggest that Trump’s next four years in office will allow nations with independent decision-making power to reshape their foreign policies in ways that serve their interests, enhancing the environment for resistance. This may explain why Palestinian resistance continues to strike Zionist strongholds with rockets, undeterred by the Zionist entity’s celebration of Trump’s win.

True, Trump, like Biden, is an unequivocal supporter of the Zionist entity. But there’s one key difference: Trump may go beyond Biden’s measures, but with a fractured Western front that fears disintegration and collapse. He will, in effect, pursue similar policies as his predecessor—only from a branch he is actively sawing off.