As Aggression Escalates, Has Damascus Officially Entered the War?

From the early days of the aggression, Israeli reports revealed that the UAE had sent messages to Bashar al-Assad warning him against Syria’s involvement in the Gaza conflict or carrying out attacks against Israel from its territory.

According to sources cited by Israel’s Channel 12, the UAE conveyed these messages to Syria at the highest levels and subsequently informed the U.S. about their discussions with Syria regarding the Gaza issue.

Earlier this month, Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper reported on what it described as UAE “enticements” to persuade Assad to sever ties with Iran and Hezbollah.

The newspaper explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is betting on achieving a shift not only in Lebanon but also in Syria. Diplomatic reports indicate that Israel is closely monitoring developments in Damascus, particularly efforts led by the UAE, in cooperation with Jordan, to convince Assad to distance himself from Iran and Hezbollah.

The efforts reportedly include significant financial incentives from the UAE, along with promises to launch a nationwide reconstruction effort in Syria if Assad distances himself from the Iran-led resistance axis. Meanwhile, Jordan has offered to eliminate opposition groups in southern and eastern Syria.

Have Neutralization Efforts Succeeded?

Political analyst Mohammed al-Khafaji argues that the narrative of UAE mediation is not new. He notes that Assad’s return to the Arab League predated the Gaza conflict and that focusing on these efforts to explain Assad’s silence is misleading.

“The relationship between Syria and the resistance axis is a deeply strategic, organic bond, not a simple transactional alliance,” al-Khafaji told Arabi21.

He further explained that Israel’s intensification of strikes on Syria serves two objectives:

1. 1. To pressure Hezbollah into accepting a ceasefire on Netanyahu’s terms.

1. 1. To send a message to Iran that the war is expanding and that Tehran must pressure Hezbollah to accept Israel’s conditions for a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Has the War Reached Damascus?

According to Khafaji, Syria has long been a battleground for a covert Israeli-Iranian conflict. The current escalation of airstrikes is another phase in a long-standing struggle, heightened by the Gaza war. However, Israel lacks the political and logistical capacity to open a full-fledged Syrian front.

Khafaji also highlighted that Israel fears not only the Syrian regime but also factions operating in Syria, such as the Iraqi group Harakat al-Nujaba, which recently hinted at the possibility of opening a Golan front.

Geopolitical Considerations

On the geopolitical level, Khafaji said that Israel’s allies—including Arab states—are working to de-escalate and prevent a full-scale regional war. “Netanyahu is one of the few who actually wants such a war, but he has lost the ability to impose his vision on his allies, especially Europeans, who now view him as a liability due to the ongoing massacres in Gaza and repeated strikes in Lebanon.”

Iran’s Role

Amid attempts to neutralize Syria and escalating Israeli airstrikes, Iran has taken a prominent stance, with high-level visits to Damascus and Beirut by senior officials. Ali Larijani, a top adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, recently visited the Syrian capital, where he met with Assad.

Larijani told Lebanese media that he conveyed a message to Assad, leaving the response to the Syrian leader.

Following Larijani’s visit, Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh arrived in Damascus on Saturday at the head of a high-ranking security delegation. The delegation discussed regional developments and enhanced coordination between the two allied armies.

The Syrian state news agency reported that the Iranian delegation aimed to strengthen military and security ties between the two nations. Iran’s Defense Minister stated, “In line with the directives of the Supreme Leader, we are prepared to provide all forms of support to friendly Syria.”

Nasirzadeh emphasized Syria’s strategic importance in Iran’s foreign policy, noting that his visit to Damascus followed an invitation from his Syrian counterpart.

The Silence of Damascus

A recent Foreign Policy report highlighted Syria’s absence from the current conflict, describing it as a clear indication of the failure of Iran’s “unity of fronts” strategy, which sought coordinated responses from all resistance axis partners. The report suggested that Assad prioritizes his regime’s survival over ideological commitments, which positions Syria as a non-threat to Israel in its current state.

Political analyst Raed al-Hamed echoed this sentiment, stating, “The Syrian regime does not appear aligned with the resistance axis’s strategies of multiple fronts or unified theaters of operation.”

He added that while Syria has issued statements condemning Israeli strikes, it has not responded militarily or allowed resistance factions to launch attacks from its territory. This restraint, al-Hamed argues, stems from Iran’s desire to avoid a scenario where Damascus faces the same fate as Gaza. Furthermore, Syria serves as a strategic hub for storing and transporting weapons from Tehran to Lebanon.

The Fate of Hassan Nasrallah

The Israeli military has threatened to attack any attempt to transfer weapons to Hezbollah via Syria, alongside targeting weapons depots, military sites, and missile platforms.

Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari claimed that strikes have destroyed most of Hezbollah’s weapons depots in Beirut and identified missiles produced in Syria and transferred to Hezbollah. He warned, “The Israeli military will target any infrastructure in Syria providing weapons to Hezbollah.”

Last week, Israeli media reported a direct threat to Assad, warning that he would meet the same fate as Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated in late September, if he continues his alliance with Hezbollah and Iran.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar translated these threats into policy earlier this month, stating, “Israel must make it clear to Syrian President Bashar Assad that if Syria continues to serve as a route for arms transfers to Hezbollah and allows aggression from its territory against Israel, his regime will be in danger.”

Sa’ar added that Israel will not allow Hezbollah to rebuild its capabilities through Syria or open a new front from Syrian territory. “Assad now faces a decisive choice,” he said.