What Are Trump’s Plans for Iran if He Returns to the White House?

As Donald Trump prepares to assume office in January, his administration is reportedly gearing up to revive the controversial “maximum pressure” strategy. This plan aims to “bankrupt” Iran, forcing it to abandon its nuclear ambitions and its support for regional proxy groups, according to a report by the Financial Times.

Reviving Maximum Pressure

The report indicates that Trump’s new administration plans to escalate sanctions on Iran, including targeting its vital oil exports. A national security expert familiar with Trump’s transition team stated, “He is determined to reimplement the maximum pressure strategy to bankrupt Iran as quickly as possible.” This shift in U.S. foreign policy comes amidst ongoing regional turmoil following the events of October 7, 2023, and Israel’s response in Gaza.

A Renewed Push for Negotiations?

While Trump spoke during his campaign about wanting to strike a deal with Iran, sources close to the president-elect suggest that the maximum pressure strategy is designed to push Tehran into negotiations. However, experts remain skeptical, pointing out that similar tactics during Trump’s first term only led to increased tensions.

During his previous administration, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, imposed hundreds of sanctions, and prompted Iran to accelerate its uranium enrichment. While the Biden administration maintained these sanctions, enforcement has been less stringent, allowing Iran’s oil exports to grow significantly, with most shipments headed to China.

Plans for Immediate Action

According to insiders, Trump’s transition team is drafting executive orders targeting Iran, to be signed on his first day in office. These measures include tightening existing sanctions and introducing new ones to severely limit Iranian oil exports. Energy consultant Bob McNally predicted, “If they go all out, they could reduce Iran’s exports to a few hundred thousand barrels per day,” which would cripple Iran’s fragile economy.

A Team of Hardliners

Trump has assembled a team of advisors known for their hawkish views on Iran, including:

• • Marco Rubio, nominated for Secretary of State

• • Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor, who has called for a return to the economic and diplomatic isolation of Iran seen during Trump’s first term.

Challenges Ahead

Iranian officials have criticized Trump’s plans, warning against repeating the maximum pressure campaign. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi tweeted, “Maximum pressure 2.0 will only lead to Maximum Failure 2.0,” advocating instead for diplomacy and mutual respect.

However, analysts doubt the feasibility of a diplomatic breakthrough. Carnegie Endowment fellow Karim Sadjadpour remarked, “The big question is whether Ayatollah Khamenei is willing to strike a nuclear and regional deal with the man who ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani.” Finding common ground between Israel’s demands and Iran’s red lines remains a significant obstacle.

Risks and Escalations

The relationship between the U.S. and Iran is further complicated by unresolved tensions stemming from Trump’s 2020 decision to assassinate Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. The U.S. Department of Justice recently accused Iran of plotting to assassinate Trump and other former officials, claims that Tehran denies.

Meanwhile, efforts for de-escalation have surfaced, with reports that Elon Musk met with Iran’s UN ambassador to discuss reducing tensions. However, the outcome of these talks, and Trump’s ultimate strategy, remain uncertain.