Israeli Estimates: Hamas Will Not Surrender or Compromise on Its Conditions

Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, writing for the American news outlet Axios, reported that top Israeli security officials—including Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, Mossad head David Barnea, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and head of the military’s captive affairs office Nitzan Alon—believe it is unlikely that Hamas will abandon its conditions for ending the war and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

The Stalemate in Negotiations

Ravid stated, “If the Israeli government is genuinely interested in a deal to release the captives, it will need to reassess its current positions,” according to two sources familiar with the matter.

These security officials are expected to emphasize this unified message during a discussion Prime Minister Netanyahu will hold tonight with senior ministers regarding efforts to resume negotiations for the release of Israeli captives.

According to sources, negotiations over a prisoner exchange deal remain stalled. However, security officials are reportedly exploring a new framework to restart the talks.

Hamas’ Stance on Conditions

Despite the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by the Israeli military and the significant strikes Hamas has endured, the group has not altered its primary demands:

1. 1. Ending the war.

1. 1. Withdrawing Israeli forces from Gaza.

Top officials, including Mossad chief David Barnea, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, believe that Hamas is open to a deal but is steadfast in its conditions. Ravid notes, “Hamas has not surrendered before, and the Israeli security establishment assesses it will not surrender in the future.”

Delayed Implementation of Exchange Deals

Regarding the first phase of a proposed prisoner exchange deal—negotiated months ago—which would involve releasing up to 33 prisoners in exchange for a 42-day ceasefire, Israeli estimates suggest Hamas will not proceed unless there are guarantees of an Israeli withdrawal in subsequent phases of the agreement.

Security Leaders’ Call for Reassessment

The message from top Israeli security officials is that several factors require reconsideration and flexibility, including:

• • Developments in the war in Gaza and Lebanon.

• • The ongoing conflict with Iran.

• • The impact of U.S. election results on the region.

An unnamed senior Israeli official commented, “No decision has been made about Israel’s position if they wish to reach an agreement.”