What Does Moscow’s Amendment to Its Nuclear Doctrine Mean Now?

On Tuesday, November 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved updates to Russia’s official nuclear doctrine, following reports that U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration had authorized Ukraine to launch American missiles into Russian territory.

Putin stated that Russia might consider the use of nuclear weapons if it faces a conventional missile attack supported by a nuclear-armed nation. He had previously hinted at clarifications to Russia’s nuclear doctrine in September, a stance he has reiterated multiple times since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

What Is Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine?

The official framework for Russia’s nuclear policy, formalized as the “Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence,” was signed by Putin in 2020. It outlines the scenarios under which Russia might deploy its nuclear arsenal, which is the largest in the world.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine defines its nuclear weapons as a “means of deterrence” and emphasizes efforts to reduce nuclear risks and prevent escalations between nations that could lead to military or nuclear conflict.

The doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons under specific circumstances:

1. 1. Reliable Information of a Ballistic Missile Attack: If credible intelligence indicates the launch of ballistic missiles targeting Russian territory or its allies.

1. 1. Use of WMDs Against Russia or Its Allies: If nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction are used against Russia or its allies.

1. 1. Conventional Military Threats to Russia’s Existence: If conventional weapons are used in a way that threatens the very existence of the Russian state.

1. 1. Attacks on Critical Government or Military Infrastructure: If attacks severely undermine Russia’s ability to conduct a retaliatory nuclear strike.

Why Has Russia Amended Its Nuclear Doctrine?

The Kremlin’s decision to revise its nuclear doctrine is a direct response to the Biden administration’s approval of U.S.-made weapons, including ATACMS missiles, for Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory. This marked a significant shift in U.S. policy concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to Reuters and other sources.

Reports suggest Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attack in the coming days, with the ATACMS missiles—capable of reaching up to 306 km—likely to be deployed. Western reports indicate that persistent Ukrainian pressure on Washington led to the green light for these strikes, with the situation exacerbated by the use of North Korean forces in Russian territories.

Statements from former U.S. President Donald Trump, in which he suggested seeking a swift end to the Ukraine war, have also fueled concerns in Kyiv and among its global supporters that Moscow might achieve significant battlefield gains.

Key Amendments to Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine

The updated nuclear doctrine explicitly defines the threats that could lead Russia, the world’s largest nuclear power, to consider using such weapons. According to the revised policy:

1. 1. Expanded Scope of Threats: Russia may respond with nuclear weapons if it or its ally Belarus faces aggression involving conventional weapons that threaten their sovereignty or territorial integrity.

1. 1. Attacks by Non-Nuclear States Supported by Nuclear Powers: Any conventional attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear-armed nation will be treated as a joint aggression.

1. 1. Aerial Attacks on Russian Territory: Large-scale aerial assaults involving drones, guided missiles, or aircraft crossing Russian borders could trigger a nuclear response.

1. 1. Collective Responsibility for Aggression: Any attack by a member of an alliance or bloc on Russia or its allies will be treated as aggression by the entire bloc.

The Implications of the Amendments

The Kremlin emphasized that these changes aim to clearly communicate to potential adversaries that any attack on Russia will be met with a decisive response. Russia and the U.S. together control 88% of the world’s nuclear warheads, with Putin holding ultimate authority over the deployment of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

The updated doctrine reinforces Russia’s stance on nuclear deterrence, signaling that it views its nuclear capability as a shield against existential threats. The amendments underline Moscow’s determination to counter what it perceives as escalatory measures by NATO and the U.S., particularly in the context of the Ukraine war.