Saudi Arabia Backtracks on Palestinian State Condition for Normalization

Saudi and Western officials revealed that Riyadh has scaled back its pursuit of a comprehensive defense treaty with the United States as part of normalization efforts with Israel. Instead, it is seeking a limited military cooperation agreement.

According to sources cited by Reuters, Saudi Arabia softened its stance earlier this year on requiring the establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for normalization. The kingdom indicated it might accept a public commitment from Israel to a two-state solution.

However, recent events, particularly the aggression on Gaza, have shifted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s position. He has now made recognition of Israel contingent on tangible steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Netanyahu’s Balancing Act

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains eager to achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia, viewing it as a historic milestone in Israel’s acceptance within the Arab world. However, Western diplomats highlighted that Netanyahu faces substantial domestic opposition to any concessions for Palestinians following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. Any gesture towards statehood could fracture his governing coalition.

Prospects of a U.S.-Saudi Defense Agreement

Saudi and U.S. officials are reportedly exploring a more modest defense pact ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden’s departure from office in January. A full-scale treaty would require two-thirds Senate approval, an unlikely outcome without Saudi recognition of Israel.

The proposed agreement under discussion includes:

• • Enhanced Military Drills and Cooperation: To counter regional threats, particularly from Iran.

• • Expanded U.S. Presence in Saudi Arabia: Increased training, logistical support, and cybersecurity measures, alongside potential deployment of Patriot missile battalions for integrated defense.

• • Advanced Defense Technology Investment: Saudi Arabia would boost investments in cutting-edge systems, especially anti-drone technologies, while ensuring alignment with U.S. interests to prevent collaboration with China.

However, the arrangement would fall short of a binding mutual defense treaty obligating U.S. forces to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of an attack.

Time-Sensitive Negotiations

Sources in Washington expressed doubts about reaching an agreement before Biden’s term ends. While Saudi Arabia remains committed to securing advanced weaponry and formal guarantees, U.S. officials are uncertain whether Riyadh prefers to finalize a deal under Biden’s leadership or wait for a potential return of Donald Trump.

A senior U.S. official stated, “We continue discussions and efforts on multiple fronts with the Saudis.” Meanwhile, the U.S. National Security Council declined to comment on the matter.

Saudi-Israeli Normalization Remains Central

A senior Saudi official noted that 95% of the defense treaty terms are finalized, but Riyadh has opted to explore alternative agreements due to the impracticality of implementation without normalization with Israel. Sources suggested that depending on the formulation, a scaled-down agreement could bypass Congress before Biden leaves office.