Israel’s Eye on Oman: What Direction Will the Sultanate Take?

Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the 69-year-old Sultan of Oman, leads a nation strategically positioned in the Middle East. Known for its quiet diplomacy, Oman maintains good relations with Iran, the U.S., the Houthis, and even discreet ties with Israel. Sultan Haitham succeeded his cousin, the late Sultan Qaboos, five years ago, inheriting a legacy of neutrality in regional and international conflicts.

A recent report by Israeli news outlet Ynet sheds light on Oman’s geopolitical significance and Israel’s interest in the Sultanate’s future stance amidst shifting dynamics in the region.

A Legacy of Neutrality

Sultan Haitham ascended to power with a commitment to stability, including the appointment of his eldest son as Crown Prince, ensuring the continuation of his family’s rule. According to Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, this move provides Oman with a rare sense of political stability in the Gulf, similar to its neighbors. Guzansky noted:

“Sultan Haitham largely continues Qaboos’ approach to regional relations, including maintaining quiet mediation efforts with both Iran and the U.S.”

Oman’s economy, heavily reliant on oil, faces challenges such as the Yemen conflict. The ongoing instability in Yemen poses significant risks to Oman’s borders, with researchers pointing out that the Houthis receive medical care in Oman, and reports suggest occasional smuggling operations through Omani territory. Despite these concerns, Oman has facilitated key negotiations between the Saudis, Houthis, and Americans, emphasizing its role as a critical mediator.

Oman’s Role in U.S.-Iran Relations

Oman’s neutrality has made it a vital interlocutor in U.S.-Iran relations, particularly over the contentious Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil shipments. Israeli researcher Uzi Rabi emphasized the Sultanate’s balancing act:

“Oman understands that its relationship with Iran and the Houthis makes it indispensable to the U.S. and the West.”

As the possibility of a return to stringent sanctions on Iran under a potential Donald Trump presidency looms, Oman may face pressure to align more closely with U.S. policy. However, experts believe the Sultanate will strive to preserve its neutral stance to avoid jeopardizing its carefully cultivated diplomatic relationships.

Oman’s Quiet Ties with Israel

Oman’s discreet relations with Israel are another point of interest. Although Oman did not rush to join the Abraham Accords, it has maintained unofficial channels of communication with Israel. Notably, Oman opened its airspace to Israeli planes but later reversed this decision in protest of Israel’s war on Gaza.

Guzansky highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Oman-Israel relations, stating:

“The future of ties between Oman and Israel is clouded by uncertainty, particularly due to Oman’s sensitivity to Palestinian issues. The Sultanate leans towards an anti-Israel stance, especially after recent conflicts.”

Furthermore, Rabi noted a shift in Oman’s approach under Sultan Haitham, who has adopted a less open and more critical posture toward Israel compared to his predecessor, Sultan Qaboos. This shift is also influenced by Oman’s deep ties with Iran and its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

The Bigger Picture: Oman’s Strategic Balancing Act

As normalization efforts between Israel and Saudi Arabia gain momentum, Oman’s role in the region grows more intricate. Rabi explained:

“If Saudi Arabia were to formalize ties with Israel, Oman would not completely pivot, but it might adjust its policies. Oman’s historical neutrality ensures it won’t destroy what it has built over decades.”

Oman’s unique demographic and tribal structure further compel Sultan Haitham to maintain a careful balance. The Sultanate’s Ibadi-majority population, coupled with significant communities with ties to Iran and Yemen, underscores the importance of inclusivity and tolerance in its policies.

Oman’s Vision: Stability Above All

For Oman, stability remains the ultimate goal. While Israel sees potential in deepening relations with the Sultanate, Oman’s focus is on fostering a peaceful Middle East. As Rabi concluded:

“Oman won’t make deals with the devil, fearing it may ultimately consume them. Instead, they aim to remain a stabilizing force in a volatile region.”