Warnings of an Israeli Military Base in Somaliland with UAE Support

A recent report by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, titled “All Eyes on Somaliland: The Small African State Key to Israel’s War on Houthi Terror”, has raised questions about Israel’s growing role in the region and its potential implications for Egypt.

The report highlights Israel’s plans, supported by the UAE, to establish a military base in Somaliland as part of efforts to counter the Houthi threat in Yemen. Experts warn that such a development poses a strategic threat to Egypt and the future of international navigation through the Suez Canal.

The Strategic Risks

According to various Hebrew and English-language reports, Israel—currently waging a deadly war against Gaza since October 7, 2013—is actively considering the creation of a military base in Somaliland. This initiative is reportedly aimed at curbing Houthi-backed support for Palestinians, monitoring the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, and addressing the threat posed by Houthi ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israeli sites like Tel Aviv, despite the 2,000-kilometer distance.

In exchange for this strategic foothold, Israel would officially recognize Hargeisa, the capital of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, which remains unrecognized internationally. Reports also reveal that the UAE, which has had close political and economic ties with Egypt’s ruling regime since 2013, has played the role of mediator between Israel and Somaliland while pledging financial support for the base’s construction.

A UAE-Israel Partnership in Somaliland

Since 2017, the UAE has maintained both a military and commercial presence in Somaliland’s Port of Berbera. This base has been critical for Emirati military operations in Yemen, with the UAE investing $440 million in Berbera’s port infrastructure. The UAE-Israel collaboration in Somaliland represents a convergence of mutual interests, particularly in countering the Houthis and Iran’s regional influence.

An additional concern arises from Ethiopia’s ambition to establish its own military base in Somaliland, further complicating the geopolitical landscape near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Ethiopian-Somaliland agreements, including a 50-year lease for a 20-kilometer stretch of Berbera, could heighten regional tensions and pose risks to Egypt’s interests.

Egypt’s Geopolitical Dilemma

The establishment of an Israeli base in Somaliland, supported by the UAE and potentially aligned with Ethiopian interests, represents a direct challenge to Egypt. Experts argue that such developments could undermine Egypt’s geopolitical influence, particularly regarding the Suez Canal and its critical role in international trade.

Somaliland’s strategic location on the Gulf of Aden, near the southern entrance to the Red Sea, is vital for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Djibouti. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait handles approximately 12% of global trade annually, representing an estimated €790 billion.

Houthi Threats and Israeli Vulnerability

Israeli fears of Houthi drone and missile attacks have further motivated its push for a Somaliland base. According to an analysis by Israeli journalist Nadan Feldman in Haaretz on November 27, 2023, a Houthi drone costing $20,000 managed to evade Israel’s advanced defense systems, strike Tel Aviv, and kill an Israeli civilian while injuring ten others.

Feldman argues that establishing a military base in Somaliland offers Israel a solution to this strategic vulnerability, providing a staging ground closer to Yemen. The report likens Somaliland’s geopolitical challenges to Israel’s, portraying both as “small democracies surrounded by authoritarian regimes.”

Egypt’s Military and Diplomatic Response

Egypt’s response to these developments has included bolstering its military ties with Somalia. Recent agreements include a joint military cooperation deal signed in August 2023, followed by arms shipments from Egypt to Somalia in September. However, Ethiopia’s presence in the region, with an estimated 3,000 troops in Somalia, continues to counter Egypt’s efforts.

Egyptian analysts argue that while Houthi attacks on the Suez Canal represent a temporary challenge, the long-term implications of an Israeli military base in Somaliland, particularly if aligned with Ethiopian interests, are far more dangerous.

A Call for Strategic Realignment

Former Egyptian Ambassador Abdullah Al-Ashaal has described the Israeli presence in Somaliland as a “thorn in Egypt’s side,” warning that it could have severe implications for Egypt’s national security and regional influence. He emphasized the need for Egypt to adopt a more proactive strategy, including open dialogues with Israel, the UAE, and Ethiopia, to mitigate these risks.

Al-Ashaal also noted that Egypt must prioritize national interests over personal or regime-level considerations and strengthen its support for Palestine, as Israel’s broader regional ambitions could eventually target Egypt itself.

The Broader Geopolitical Stakes

Israel’s partnership with Ethiopia and the UAE in Somaliland could undermine Egypt’s role in the region, reducing its ability to influence Red Sea security and protect its vital water resources. Al-Ashaal warned that continued inaction risks further erosion of Egypt’s geopolitical influence, particularly as these alliances solidify.

The political implications extend beyond Somaliland, with potential threats to Egypt’s sovereignty over critical areas like the Sinai Peninsula and its regional partnerships. Furthermore, the UAE’s growing influence in Somaliland and its alignment with Israeli interests underscore the need for Egypt to reevaluate its approach to these emerging challenges.