“A Complete Shift”: What Lies Behind Turkey’s Transformation Toward the Syrian Regime After the Opposition’s Offensive?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently announced the ultimate goal of the sweeping military campaign launched by Syrian opposition factions, stating that Damascus is the final destination for the opposition, which has made significant advances against regime forces and allied militias.

While numerous reports have highlighted Turkey’s role in the offensive that began on November 27, Ankara has maintained its emphasis on engaging in a political solution, despite its recent efforts to normalize ties with the Syrian regime.

The Syrian opposition factions, operating under the “Military Operations Command,” have achieved remarkable progress against regime forces within days. They have taken control of Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama before advancing to the outskirts of Homs, a strategic crossroads connecting the coast to the capital, Damascus.

The “Military Operations Command” declared that its forces had liberated the last village on the outskirts of Homs and were now at its gates, issuing a final call to regime forces: “This is your chance to defect.”

Meanwhile, as the opposition advanced from the north toward Damascus, the southern front ignited. Opposition factions there announced the formation of the “Southern Operations Room” and launched a campaign named “Breaking the Chains” against regime forces in Suwayda, Daraa, and Quneitra.

In the south, opposition factions declared full control over Daraa and all security branches in Suwayda just hours after initiating battles with regime forces, in a show of support for their northern counterparts heading toward Homs.

Erdoğan’s Stance: A Turning Point in Turkey’s Approach to Syria

In a statement following Friday prayers in Istanbul, President Erdoğan remarked that Syrian opposition forces were continuing their advance on the ground, expressing hopes for their progress to continue without setbacks. He stated, “The opposition is advancing. After Idlib, Hama, and Homs, the goal is Damascus. We hope this journey continues without incident.”

Erdoğan also noted that Turkey had previously extended an invitation to the Syrian regime’s head to determine Syria’s future together, “but unfortunately, we received no positive response.”

This announcement marks a significant shift in Turkey’s stance toward the Syrian regime. Ankara, which had been pursuing normalization with the Assad regime through Russian mediation in recent months, appears to have reversed course. The Assad regime’s insistence on Turkey withdrawing its forces from Syria and its refusal to engage in a political resolution have pushed Turkish efforts back to square one.

Turkish, Iranian, and Russian foreign ministers are expected to meet in Doha later today to discuss the rapid advancements made by opposition forces, according to a Turkish diplomatic source.

A Turkish Pivot on the Syrian Crisis

Researcher Mahmoud Alloush described the ongoing developments in Syria as a shift to a completely new phase of the conflict. He attributed these changes to the Assad regime’s stubbornness in resisting normalization with Turkey.

Speaking to Arabi21, Alloush characterized Turkey’s position as a comprehensive reversal, reshaping its priorities in Syria. He noted, “We are witnessing a strong push in Turkey’s stance toward Syria, and its limits are unpredictable. Turkey sees the current conditions as an opportunity to reshape the conflict on a broad scale and enforce its political solution, which aims to transform Syria rather than merely rehabilitate the Assad regime.”

Alloush also dismissed the notion that Turkey was caught off guard by the opposition’s offensive or had no prior plans for it. He argued that the developments represent a complete overhaul of the status quo established by Turkey’s cooperative yet competitive relationships with Russia and Iran in Syria.

He added that these changes are particularly uncomfortable for Moscow and Tehran. However, diplomacy between Ankara, Moscow, and Tehran could mitigate risks and pave the way for a political transition in Syria, depending on whether Russia and Iran are willing to adapt to the evolving circumstances.

Turkey’s Strategic Shift in Policy

Mohammad Sukari, a researcher at the Harmoon Center, highlighted the consistency of Turkey’s political stance toward the Syrian opposition but acknowledged fluctuations in its security policies due to evolving conditions on the ground.

Sukari explained that Turkey’s policies are primarily shaped by its national security concerns, particularly securing its borders, which inevitably influence its reactions to developments in Syria. He noted that Turkey had opened channels for diplomatic dialogue with the Assad regime and even explored the possibility of a meeting with Bashar al-Assad to revive stalled constitutional talks and find a political solution.

While this pragmatic approach aligned with previous regional dynamics, recent military gains by the Syrian opposition have prompted Turkey to reassess its position. Sukari observed that the opposition’s renewed military capabilities have encouraged Turkey to engage more positively with the shifting situation.

Sukari added that the opposition’s latest offensive, while not directly led by Turkey, likely aligns with Ankara’s broader strategy. “Although Turkey has not officially announced or orchestrated this military campaign, it may be providing indirect support to the opposition. This reflects a major shift in Turkey’s policy on Syria.”

He emphasized that Turkey’s recent actions send a clear message: the Syrian people alone have the right to decide their destiny. This sentiment was echoed by Erdoğan, who asserted that the Assad regime’s refusal to compromise or engage in political solutions had reignited military tensions.

Toward a New Political Reality in Syria

Sukari further noted that the opposition’s advances—starting from Aleppo and Hama to Homs and potentially Damascus—have significantly altered the balance of power in Syria. He highlighted that controlling key provinces, including Aleppo, Syria’s economic hub, strengthens the opposition’s position politically and militarily.

He concluded that the upcoming meeting between Turkish, Russian, and Iranian foreign ministers could signal the beginning of a new transitional phase in Syria, shaped by the opposition’s military successes. However, attempts to halt their progress or revert to previous conditions appear unlikely.

Sukari stressed that the ongoing developments align with the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for a gradual political transition in Syria. He asserted that the military gains achieved by the opposition point to an inevitable political shift, with the balance of power tilting firmly in their favor.