Who Controls Syria’s Oil Fields? What Is the Future of Their Management After the Regime’s Fall?

Since the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011, the country has transformed into an open battlefield among various local and regional factions. Control over oil has become one of the most strategic objectives for competing powers.

Syria, despite not being among the largest oil producers in the Middle East, holds significant reserves, making its oil a critical factor in funding internal conflicts and future reconstruction efforts. It is also a key element in the political and economic balance of the region.

In recent years, oil fields in northeastern Syria, particularly in areas like Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah, have gained strategic importance. Control over these oil fields has transcended economic purposes, becoming a central issue in the ongoing conflict among local and international powers.

These fields are a lifeline for armed factions, providing funding for military operations and supporting local economies. Moreover, oil has become a critical bargaining chip in future political negotiations at both the local and international levels.

Locations of Syrian Oil Fields

Most of Syria’s oil fields are located in the eastern and northeastern regions, particularly in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah. These areas host the country’s largest oil fields, such as Al-Omar and Al-Tanak, which were once a primary source of revenue.

In the pre-war period, these oil fields were under the control of the Syrian government and its allied militias, sometimes with support from Iran and Hezbollah.

Syria’s Oil Map Before the Fall of Assad

In 2010, Syria’s oil production averaged around 400,000 barrels per day, accounting for approximately 10% of the country’s GDP. Most of the production was exported to global markets, positioning Syria as a key regional energy supplier.

At the time, the Syrian Petroleum Company managed most of the fields in the eastern and southern regions, while the fields in Raqqa and Al-Hasakah provinces were the most productive.

Dramatic Changes During the War

With the onset of the Syrian war in 2011, the control over oil fields underwent dramatic shifts. In the early years of the conflict, fierce battles erupted over these vital resources, valued at billions of dollars.

Various opposition groups, including ISIS and the Free Syrian Army, managed to seize control of many oil fields. Meanwhile, the regime lost control over vast swathes of the eastern and northeastern regions.

As the conflict progressed, the Syrian government sought to regain control of these vital resources. Simultaneously, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) emerged as a dominant power, taking control of most oil fields in northeastern Syria, especially after ISIS retreated from fields it had previously seized from the Assad regime.

SDF’s Control

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily composed of Kurdish factions along with Arab allies, now control the majority of Syria’s key oil fields in the north and east. This shift occurred as the regime withdrew from many eastern areas during the early years of the conflict.

The SDF, supported by military and logistical backing from the United States, established control over oil fields in Deir ez-Zor, Al-Hasakah, and Raqqa. These fields became the main source of oil production in Syria.

Although the Assad regime still controls some oil fields in specific areas, the SDF has maintained dominance over most of the major fields in northeastern Syria, largely due to US support. At the same time, Turkey has sought to exert influence over some oil fields near its border.

Russian Intervention

Russia’s intervention in the Syrian war in 2015 marked another shift in the oil equation. Moscow sought to secure a significant share of Syria’s oil sector, particularly in fields near Homs. Russia also expanded its presence in northeastern oil fields, despite the challenges posed by US-backed forces.

The Russian company Stroytransgaz secured major contracts to invest in Syrian oil fields, particularly in areas recaptured by the regime.

Opposition-Controlled Small Oil Fields

Apart from the SDF, Syrian opposition factions also control smaller oil fields in northwestern Syria, especially near the Turkish border. While these factions lack access to major fields like those in the northeast, they still play a role in Syria’s oil economy.

These opposition groups often rely on primitive extraction methods, such as manual drilling, which limits their production capabilities compared to the SDF or the Assad regime.

Despite these limitations, these groups use oil to fund military operations and meet the needs of areas under their control.

Post-Regime Fall Changes

With the fall of the Syrian regime on December 8, the management and control of oil fields have become a focal point for various factions seeking to capitalize on this transformative moment. Several scenarios are expected regarding the future of oil field control:

SDF’s Expanding Influence

• US Expansion in Eastern Syria: After the regime’s fall, it is anticipated that the SDF, which controls most of Syria’s oil fields, will strengthen its position. The US-backed forces, which dominate nearly 80% of Syria’s oil fields, are poised to maintain and expand their control.
• US Influence: With continued American support, the SDF is likely to secure its hold over these fields. The US may maintain its military presence to ensure the flow of oil and use it to economically bolster the SDF while extending its influence in the region.

Turkey’s Ambitions

• Exploiting the New Reality: Turkey, following the regime’s fall, may attempt to seize the opportunity to gain control over oil fields in northern Syria. Turkey-backed opposition factions may seek to leverage these fields for economic and political gains.
• Turkish Deals: Turkey could negotiate deals with opposition factions controlling oil-rich areas, such as in Afrin or near the Turkish border, to enhance its role in the region.

Russia vs. US Competition

• With the regime’s fall, competition between Russia and the US over Syria’s oil fields is expected to intensify. While Russia has focused on securing fields in Homs and the coastal region, clashes over control of oil fields in Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah are likely to escalate.
• Analysts predict a mix of cooperation and conflict between these foreign powers over shared interests in oil field management. However, tensions could rise, especially if Russia seeks to reclaim fields lost to the SDF.

International Investments and Sanctions

• International oil companies may begin entering the Syrian oil market if a new government is formed. However, political instability and security challenges will remain significant barriers to stable investment.
• Sanctions on Syria’s oil sector, imposed by Western nations, will continue to hinder investment. Nevertheless, regime change could prompt international calls to ease these sanctions to aid in the country’s reconstruction.

This evolving struggle over Syria’s oil fields reflects the broader political, economic, and military complexities in the region. The future of these resources will undoubtedly play a decisive role in shaping the country’s post-conflict reality.