Why Russia Struggled to Support Assad Amid Opposition Offensives

An American official revealed that the United States believes Moscow was unable to respond effectively to the Syrian opposition’s offensive because many Russian military aircraft had been withdrawn from Syria to support operations in Ukraine, according to The New York Times.

The official explained, “The fighter jets that Russia could have deployed for another round of brutal bombing campaigns have been redirected to Ukraine.”

Additionally, the official noted that Russian warships, which might have been deployed from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, were unable to navigate the Bosphorus Strait due to a treaty allowing Turkey to close its waterways to warring states.

Furthermore, the official highlighted the dissolution of the Wagner Group’s operations in Syria. The Russian mercenary force, infamous for its brutality, ceased functioning after its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, attempted a failed mutiny against the Russian military leadership.

Russia Withdraws Fleet from Tartus

Last week, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War reported that satellite imagery revealed Russia had withdrawn its entire fleet from its Tartus naval base. This move, the report suggested, indicates that Moscow does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support the Assad regime.

The images, captured on the third of the month, showed that three frigates, a submarine, and two auxiliary ships had been evacuated from the naval base. These vessels constituted the entirety of the Russian fleet stationed in Tartus since its deployment.

The institute also cited reports from Ukraine’s military intelligence that Russia had deployed its “African Corps” forces in Syria on the same date. These forces were reportedly established to replace the Wagner Group in Africa following the death of Prigozhin.

Implications for Russia’s Military Strategy

The institute highlighted that these reports reflect Russia’s strategic priority in Ukraine, avoiding the redeployment of its regular forces from a critical theater of operations to Syria.

The withdrawal from Tartus and the redeployment of forces indicate Moscow’s concern that Syrian opposition forces could push southward toward Hama, potentially threatening the Tartus base itself.

Russia’s Role in Syria Since 2015

Russia intervened in the Syrian conflict in late 2015 to halt the opposition’s military advances, which had endangered the Assad regime’s survival.

Since then, Moscow has stationed troops and weaponry in Syria, including fighter jets, attack helicopters, military police, and personnel across 20 bases, as reported by the Council on Foreign Relations.

Russia also established the Khmeimim Air Base as its first permanent airbase in the Middle East and the only one outside the former Soviet Union.

Shift in Military Focus

During the first year of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia significantly reduced its military presence in Syria. Many forces previously stationed there were transferred to Ukraine to leverage their combat experience and to reduce the strain of the Syrian campaign on Russia’s broader war effort, according to U.S. reports.

The Council on Foreign Relations further explained that Russia’s primary support for Assad has come in the form of indiscriminate aerial bombardment of rebel-held areas. On the ground, Hezbollah has played a significant role in supporting the regime.

However, aerial dominance alone may no longer be sufficient to repel the opposition. With Syrian government forces either unwilling or unable to confront the opposition and Hezbollah struggling to mobilize its fighters at previous levels, Russia faces mounting challenges in Syria.

Russia’s Diminished Position in Syria

Russia’s military setbacks in Ukraine and the shifting dynamics in Syria have left Moscow in a difficult position. Its diminished presence complicates its ability to maintain Assad’s grip on power amid renewed opposition advances.

As geopolitical priorities shift and resource constraints tighten, Russia’s once-dominant role in the Syrian conflict appears increasingly untenable.