“Financial Times”: Syria Faces Two Possible Paths After the Assad Family’s End

In an editorial titled “A Welcome End to a Brutal Ruling Family,” the Financial Times reflected on the fall of Bashar al-Assad and his family, marking the end of a 13-year saga that began with children writing anti-regime slogans on walls in Daraa, sparking the Syrian revolution.

The article, translated by Arabi21, highlighted that hundreds of thousands of families who lost loved ones to Assad’s violence—through killing, maiming, imprisonment, or enforced disappearances—are now celebrating the fall of a regime that brutally ruled and plundered one of the Arab world’s most vital nations for over five decades.

The extraordinary collapse of Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment in the Middle East. Syria had long been a cornerstone ally for both Russia and Iran in the region.

A Shift in Regional Power Dynamics

The end of Assad’s rule signifies a shift in regional power dynamics. Iran’s influence through its proxies has diminished, and Russia’s geopolitical reach is increasingly constrained.

Since October 7, 2023, longstanding certainties in the Middle East have been upended, reshuffling the region’s political cards. However, the future of the region, emerging from the wreckage of years of conflict and massacres, remains deeply uncertain.

What Comes After Assad?

Much depends on who governs Syria post-Assad. The Financial Times pointed out that Turkey stands as the clearest winner following Assad’s ousting. Turkey has been a steadfast supporter of Syria’s armed opposition for years.

However, the Gulf’s Sunni Arab states—having recently reconciled with the Assad regime—along with Israel, are unlikely to welcome an Islamist-led government in Damascus.

The forgotten Syrian civil war has reignited due to several converging factors. Assad’s survival relied heavily on Russian airpower and Hezbollah fighters on the ground. With Russia distracted by its war in Ukraine and Hezbollah weakened by ongoing conflicts with Israel, the Syrian opposition seized the moment to strike.

The regime’s army, already exhausted, rapidly lost ground. Within days, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the best-armed and most prepared rebel faction, captured key cities previously under government control and advanced to Damascus. Reports of secret deals also suggest the fragility of Assad’s final days.

A Moment of Joy for Many Syrians

For many Syrians, the regime’s collapse brought joy. Rebel forces opened prisons, reuniting countless families with loved ones who had long been lost in Assad’s torture cells.

Among the more than five million Syrian refugees who fled the war, many now hope they can return to homes they had long despaired of ever seeing again.

The Role of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham

What happens next depends heavily on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group has sought to rebrand itself as a more moderate force. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, once associated with ISIS and al-Qaeda, now portrays himself as a statesman.

Jolani has promised to treat Syria’s Christian and Kurdish minorities, as well as the Alawites—Assad’s sect—with dignity. However, fears remain that Islamist elements could incite acts of vengeance.

For now, HTS has declared its intention to protect state institutions, signaling a desire for an orderly transition of power.

Two Potential Paths for Syria

The Financial Times identified two possible futures for Syria:

1. 1. Renewed Civil War: Syria could descend into chaos akin to Yemen or Libya—nations mired in long-term failure and destruction.

1. 1. Stability and Recovery: The country could stabilize, opening the door for reconstruction and the return of millions of refugees scattered worldwide.

To seize the hopeful path, those with influence over Jolani must ensure he cedes governance to a civilian administration that represents Syria’s diverse religious communities. This could pave the way for Arab and Western governments—many of which label HTS as a terrorist organization—to engage diplomatically with Syria’s post-Assad government.

A Global Responsibility

The editorial concluded by reminding readers that the world has repeatedly failed Syria, even standing idle as Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. Now, however, the world has a chance to help the country rebuild and stand on its feet once again.