“Smoldering Ashes Under the Surface” Haunt Israel: Iran’s Eyes on the West Bank

Israel is increasingly concerned about developments in the West Bank, despite the ongoing turmoil in other major arenas like Syria. While the West Bank may seem quieter compared to other fronts, Israel views it as a powder keg that could ignite at any moment, with any escalation having direct repercussions due to its geographic proximity and daily friction. Israeli officials see the West Bank as a critical battleground that could destabilize the entire region, prompting continuous military operations aimed at suppressing resistance.

Heightened Israeli Focus on the West Bank

In the past week, Israeli forces have ramped up their activities in the West Bank, including raids, arrests, airstrikes, and confiscation of alleged “terror-related” funds and weapons. The Israeli army recently announced the arrest of more than 50 Palestinians and the destruction of makeshift explosives, underscoring its ongoing “mowing the grass” policy aimed at stifling Palestinian resistance before it grows.

Despite its preoccupation with developments in Syria, Israel’s political and military leadership has allocated significant attention to the West Bank. The Israeli security cabinet has scheduled a meeting to address rising tensions in the area, following intelligence assessments that suggest the fall of the Assad regime could destabilize the Palestinian Authority (PA).

Security Concerns and Regional Context

Israel’s security establishment believes that the collapse of the Assad regime and weakened allies like Hezbollah have emboldened Iran to shift its focus toward fueling resistance in the West Bank. Israeli intelligence cites several alarming trends:

1. 1. Escalating Armed Resistance: Recent attacks include a shooting near Jerusalem that left one settler dead and others injured, and another operation targeting settlers attempting to storm Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus, wounding three.

1. 1. Smuggling and Weapons Proliferation: In late November, Israeli forces intercepted an unusual arms shipment allegedly destined for the West Bank, including RPGs, rocket launchers, and high-grade explosives.

1. 1. Cross-Border Threats: Increased attempts to smuggle weapons across Jordan’s border into the West Bank, alongside infiltration efforts by resistance fighters aiming to carry out operations.

Iran’s Strategic Shift

Israel accuses Iran of actively working to ignite resistance in the West Bank following setbacks in Syria and Lebanon. According to Israeli sources, Tehran is committed to bolstering Palestinian resistance to demonstrate its resilience despite losing a key ally in Assad. Israeli officials claim that Iran sees the West Bank as its next strategic frontier, with efforts to destabilize the area gaining momentum.

“We are closely monitoring developments and remain on high alert,” said an Israeli security official. “We fear rapid escalation, as events in Syria may spill over into the West Bank, potentially leading to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and widespread instability.”

The Role of the West Bank in Regional Dynamics

The West Bank occupies a central role in Israel’s broader geopolitical calculations, with its proximity to Israeli settlements and its position at the heart of the Zionist settlement project. Israeli right-wing leaders have long regarded the West Bank as the cornerstone of their expansionist vision.

Despite daily military raids and airstrikes, Israeli forces have failed to fully suppress resistance in the West Bank. Analysts note that the area could become the focal point of a larger confrontation, particularly under the current right-wing government, which is awaiting Donald Trump’s potential return to power to finalize annexation plans.

Increased Focus on the Jordan Border

Israel’s concerns extend to its eastern border with Jordan, which it sees as a critical security front. Two key issues dominate this focus:

1. 1. Weapon Smuggling: The West Bank remains a primary destination for arms trafficked across Jordan, fueling the resistance movement.

1. 1. Cross-Border Infiltrations: Increasing attempts by fighters to breach the border and carry out operations within the West Bank.

These factors have heightened Israeli military presence along the Jordan border, with a focus on intercepting arms and preventing infiltration.

Broader Implications

Israel views the West Bank as intricately linked to regional developments. With Iran doubling down on its support for resistance movements and the potential collapse of the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank could become the epicenter of a broader conflict.

As Israel intensifies its military actions, it risks further inflaming tensions, with any misstep potentially leading to a wave of resistance and undermining what little stability remains. Meanwhile, Palestinian factions continue to evolve their tactics, making it increasingly difficult for Israel to maintain control.