A Year of Planning and Secrecy: Behind the Syrian Opposition’s Plan to Topple Assad

As reactions to the fall of the Syrian regime on December 8, 2024, continue to pour in, questions linger about the days and weeks leading up to the swift collapse of Assad’s forces. How did Syrian armed opposition factions successfully topple President Bashar al-Assad? What preparations were made for their decisive attack that ended Assad’s reign in just 10 days?

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan praised the Syrian opposition factions for their success, commending the exceptional courage and determination displayed during the military operation that ousted Assad.

In an interview with Turkey’s NTV channel on Friday, reflecting on the days marking the downfall of Assad’s regime, Fidan said, “We paved the way for ensuring the operation concluded with minimal bloodshed and losses by maintaining negotiations with key players, Russia and Iran,” according to the Anadolu Agency.

But how did the various Syrian opposition factions—most prominently Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed Shar’a, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani—prepare for the military operation launched on November 28, known as Operation Deterrence of Aggression?

Western and Arab reports have revealed the behind-the-scenes efforts over the years by Syrian armed opposition factions, detailing how they consolidated their ranks, obtained the necessary military equipment, and leveraged additional factors that paved the way for Assad’s downfall.

Planning Began a Year Earlier

According to the British newspaper The Guardian, Abu Hassan al-Hamawi, the military commander of HTS, disclosed that opposition factions began planning Operation Deterrence of Aggression a year prior. Their meticulous efforts included deploying a new unit specialized in drones and fostering close coordination among opposition groups across the country.

The following are some key insights from Al-Hamawi’s revelations:

1. Establishing a Unified War Room

HTS, based in northwestern Syria, initiated contact with opposition factions in the south a year before the operation began to establish a unified war room aimed at encircling Damascus from both directions.

• • With HTS’s assistance, a joint operations center was created, comprising leaders from approximately 25 opposition groups across three southern provinces. Each leader coordinated their fighters’ movements with others and HTS in the north.

• • Communication among faction leaders was streamlined through a WhatsApp group, with instructions passed down the chain of command as necessary.

2. Developing a Military Doctrine

Since 2019, HTS has worked on crafting a military doctrine to transform fighters from disparate opposition and jihadist groups into a disciplined combat force.

3. Unifying Political Leadership

HTS offered other opposition groups opportunities to merge under its banner. Gradually uniting the political leadership, Al-Hamawi—HTS’s military wing leader since 2019—focused on training opposition fighters. This effort included creating military branches, units, and security forces.

4. Creating a Drone Unit

Recognizing their disadvantage against Assad’s airpower and the support he received from Russia and Iran, HTS and opposition factions began producing their own weapons, vehicles, and ammunition.

• • In 2019, they established a drone unit comprising engineers, mechanics, and chemists. Al-Hamawi explained, “We unified their expertise and set clear objectives. We needed reconnaissance drones, attack drones, and kamikaze drones, with a focus on range and endurance.”

• • The latest drones, known as Shaheen, were deployed for the first time during Operation Deterrence of Aggression and proved highly effective against Assad’s forces.

5. Enhancing Military Capabilities

Over the years, HTS and other opposition factions bolstered their military capabilities through local manufacturing and foreign support. In their stronghold in Idlib, HTS established a centralized command structure and specialized rapid deployment units, including infantry, artillery, special forces, tanks, and snipers.

• • According to a report in the Financial Times, opposition factions also produced drones using small workshops, often housed in residential buildings or warehouses, and relied on 3D printing technology.

• • During their offensive, opposition forces captured several military airports and bases, seizing advanced equipment, including the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system—an unprecedented achievement for the opposition.

6. Establishing a Military Academy

HTS founded a military academy two and a half years ago, with defectors from Assad’s regime playing key roles in its establishment, according to the Financial Times.

• • The academy adopted a nine-month training regimen divided into basic, intermediate, and advanced phases, modeled after the Syrian army’s military structure.

• • Jerome Drevon, an expert at the Crisis Group, noted that HTS persuaded about 30 former Syrian army officers, who had defected to other opposition groups, to establish and lead the academy.

7. Operational Security and the Element of Surprise

The opposition demonstrated an unprecedented level of operational security and coordination.

• • According to an AFP report citing Scott Lucas, a Middle East and North Africa expert at the University of Birmingham, “Iran and Russia have historically preempted opposition offensives in the north. But this time, Assad’s allies were caught off guard.”

• • Lucas attributed this to the opposition’s complete secrecy in planning their attack. When the operation began, Assad’s forces faced no major obstacles capable of derailing the offensive.

Additional Factors Contributing to Assad’s Fall

Several external and internal factors aided the Syrian opposition in toppling Assad’s regime after 13 years of civil war. These include:

1. Lack of Support from Assad’s Allies

Since the start of the Syrian revolution in 2011, Iran and later Russia emerged as Assad’s most reliable allies. Russia’s military intervention in 2015 rescued Assad from near defeat.

However, as opposition forces advanced and launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression, both Russia and Iran withdrew their military support.

• • According to sources interviewed by Reuters, Assad realized in the days leading up to his escape that neither Russia nor Iran would intervene militarily to save his regime.

• • Assad reportedly visited Moscow on November 28, the day after the operation began, pleading for military assistance. The Kremlin, prioritizing its war in Ukraine, declined his requests.

2. A Weakened and Disillusioned Army

As opposition forces advanced toward Damascus, Assad’s army offered little resistance. Reports described the regime’s military as weak and demoralized long before the opposition launched its offensive.

• • Soldiers expressed frustration on social media, accusing commanders of corruption, such as taking bribes for leave passes, stealing supplies, and ordering looting.

One opposition leader in Damascus told The Guardian: “On December 7, I received 5,000 calls from regime soldiers wanting to surrender. Many said their families were urging them to lay down their arms.”

Conclusion

The meticulous planning, operational discipline, and strategic coordination among Syria’s opposition factions culminated in the swift collapse of Assad’s regime. With external factors such as the withdrawal of Russian and Iranian support and the internal weaknesses of Assad’s forces, the opposition successfully brought an end to 13 years of authoritarian rule. As the dust settles, the world watches how Syria’s future unfolds in the aftermath of this historic victory.