International Crisis Group Warns of UAE Plots in Syria After Assad’s Fall

The International Crisis Group has issued a warning about the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) interference in Syria following the collapse of the deposed President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, highlighting Abu Dhabi’s opposition to any Islamic-oriented governance in the Arab region.

In an extensive analysis titled “Priorities After Assad’s Fall,” the group celebrated Syria’s long-awaited liberation from Assad’s hated regime, affirming that the Syrian people, who have suffered for decades, deserve a chance to rebuild their country on their own terms—with external assistance, not intervention.

UAE’s Opposition to Islamic Governance

The report emphasized that the prospect of an Islamic-led government in Syria poses a direct threat to the UAE’s political agenda. It noted that:

“Islamist rule in Damascus would be a curse for the UAE, which has fought Islamic movements across the Arab world since the Arab Spring of 2011.”

The group pointed out that the UAE has long collaborated with Assad’s regime and sought to lure Damascus away from its Iranian allies to serve Abu Dhabi’s strategic goals.

However, the report argued that the Gulf states, including the UAE, lacked the necessary leverage to counterbalance the protection provided to Assad by Iran and Russia. The UAE’s main tools—money and trade—were already constrained due to Western sanctions.

Regional Dynamics and Saudi Arabia’s Position

The report also highlighted Saudi Arabia’s stance, noting:

“Riyadh views Islamic governance in Syria with suspicion and concern.”

The Crisis Group warned that both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh might attempt to influence events in Syria to weaken the Islamic orientation of the new ruling authorities.

Syria’s Transformation and Its Wider Impact

The group concluded that the dramatic developments in Syria will reshape the country and have far-reaching implications across the Middle East and beyond. It stressed that the Syrian people, who have endured immense suffering, deserve the chance to:

• • Celebrate the fall of Assad’s regime.

• • Begin the process of recovery from the war’s trauma and the regime’s repression.

• • Welcome back prisoners freed from Assad’s jails and care for them.

• • Mourn the loss of loved ones.

• • Allow refugees to return to safety.

The analysis also addressed concerns about the future under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria’s northwest. It underscored the need for guarantees that the rebels’ victory will not merely replace one oppressive regime with another.

Avoiding Destabilizing External Interventions

The Crisis Group urged external powers that contributed to Syria’s devastating war to avoid further destabilizing interventions. Instead, it called on these powers to:

“Help Syrians rebuild their country for the better and reshape their political system and society on their own terms.”